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Author Topic: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races  (Read 33624 times)
Miles
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« Reply #75 on: May 10, 2012, 05:53:29 pm »
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Here's something I managed to cook-up today:



Again, my hat is off to Rouzer; geographically, he was at an obvious disadvantage. He did a great job of running up his totals in Johnston county (in his worst precinct there, he got 70%).

Pantano underperformed in New Hanover; he was consistently polling the mid-50s there. Also, there are relatively few registered Republicans in the rural counties (like Columbus and Bladen) which gave Pantano less support to draw from.
« Last Edit: May 10, 2012, 05:57:26 pm by MilesC56 »Logged


Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #76 on: May 10, 2012, 07:14:54 pm »
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Great work, Miles!
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Miles
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« Reply #77 on: July 09, 2012, 09:01:57 am »
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I haven't updated this in a while!

Well, in a very frustrating development, the N.C. 8th Congressional District Black Leadership Caucus is pulling its support from Kissell. They're mad that Kissell is voting with Republicans on healthcare; I don't blame him, maybe if he can appeal of conservatives, he'll have a better shot at, 'ya know, winning.
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Miles
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« Reply #78 on: July 09, 2012, 09:49:07 am »
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Also, there are three major Congressional Runoffs next week, all on the GOP side.

The first, in my own district 9, is former State Senator Robert Pittenger running against former Mecklenburg county sheriff Jim Pendergraph. In the primary, Pittenger, who has been largely self-funding since, got 35% to Pendergraph's 25% (this was an 11-man field).

I'm endorsing Pittenger, mainly because he seems more moderate, and because Pendergaph could potentially be worse than Myrick. In my area (southern Charlotte) I'm seeing more Pendergraph signs though.

Meanwhile, in the GOP runoff in the 8th district is turning into little more than a purity contest. Richard Hudson was a staffer for Robin Hayes and his opponent, Scott Keadle, is a doctor. Hudson got endorsements from Mike Huckabee and, more recently, Paul Ryan, while the Club for Growth is backing Keadle. Keadle kinda reminds me of Rick Scott.
In the primary, the field was quite fractured; Hudson got 32% to Keadle's 22%.

Finally, I've been following the runoff in CD11 the least. From what I gather, Mark Meadows is more or less the 'establishment candidate' as he has more endorsements from state legislators while Vance Patterson is trying to appeal more to the tea party crowd. Meadows got 38% in the primary to Patterson's 24%.
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Miles
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« Reply #79 on: July 11, 2012, 11:21:15 am »
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While I was working out a few nights ago, I happened so see some parts of the 8th district GOP debate on TV. It was mostly just Republican buzzwords from either candidate.

My favorite part; both Republicans have such strong roots in the district:

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They also questioned each others’ ties to the 8th District. Hudson pointed out that Keadle lives in the neighboring 9th District. Keadle shot back that Hudson had Virginia and Texas driver’s licenses in recent years, while working for members of Congress.

Kissell's family has lived in the 8th district for generations.
« Last Edit: July 11, 2012, 11:24:52 am by MilesC56 »Logged


Miles
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« Reply #80 on: July 11, 2012, 04:54:40 pm »
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Kissell and McIntyre both voted to repeal the healthcare bill today. That should play well for them in their districts.
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« Reply #81 on: July 11, 2012, 08:34:27 pm »
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Rouzer's trouble in the southeastern part of NC might just send McIntyre back to Congress. That's where he routinely runs up huge margins even in GOP leaning counties at the presidential level.
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Miles
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« Reply #82 on: July 11, 2012, 09:31:39 pm »
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Rouzer's trouble in the southeastern part of NC might just send McIntyre back to Congress. That's where he routinely runs up huge margins even in GOP leaning counties at the presidential level.

I agree. Rouzer is pretty unknown there whereas McIntyre has been representing that area for 16 years.
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morgieb
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« Reply #83 on: July 11, 2012, 10:32:15 pm »
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What do you think will happen to McIntyre and Kissell?
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Miles
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« Reply #84 on: July 11, 2012, 10:47:24 pm »
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What do you think will happen to McIntyre and Kissell?

Well, they're both tracking rightward in terms of their votes; neither has endorsed Obama and I hear they might not even be in Charlotte for the DNC.

I say McIntyre is a modest favorite; his biggest obstacle will be Rouzer's strength in Jonhston county. However, if he makes it past this election, I think he can make inroads there, as its sent Etheridge to Congress for years. McIntyre has a very strong track record on veterans and military issues, which helps him win over voters who normally vote Republican.

Kissell is probably a tossup; he has great blue-collar appeal which helps him in the rural areas. He's also been endorsed by the NRA each time he's run.
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Miles
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« Reply #85 on: July 12, 2012, 06:35:00 pm »
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As if we also needed another pointless Democratic purity experiment. Dan Blue, the mayor of a small town in Richmond county, was chosen by the 8th district black caucus to challenge Kissell from the left as a write-in.

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“I will do everything in my power and will give you 200 percent, just like I did in the military for 24 years,” Blue told the group of about 35 that packed the small NAACP building in Hamlet...

...“But if (Blue) doesn’t win, he will make a statement,”


Yes, he'll make a statement, for sure. His statement will be that the black caucus would rather see a Republican elected than an independent-minded Democrat. What a shame.

The worst case here would be a repeat of LA-06 in 2008.
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« Reply #86 on: July 12, 2012, 11:22:21 pm »
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As if we also needed another pointless Democratic purity experiment. Dan Blue, the mayor of a small town in Richmond county, was chosen by the 8th district black caucus to challenge Kissell from the left as a write-in.

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“I will do everything in my power and will give you 200 percent, just like I did in the military for 24 years,” Blue told the group of about 35 that packed the small NAACP building in Hamlet...

...“But if (Blue) doesn’t win, he will make a statement,”


Yes, he'll make a statement, for sure. His statement will be that the black caucus would rather see a Republican elected than an independent-minded Democrat. What a shame.

The worst case here would be a repeat of LA-06 in 2008.

Fully agree. In general - i know few  more selfish organizations then "black caucuses" (they readily come into any sort of agreements with the most conservative Republicans at the expense of other Democrats if that agreements will increase a number of black-majority districts even by 1, they protest against election of white legislators (even liberal) in black-majority districts, because they "ought" to elect blacks (may be in such case white-majority districts "must" elect whites? And David Duke simply copied their logic???). And so on.
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« Reply #87 on: July 13, 2012, 03:32:52 am »
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What a tool. Doesn't he realise that Kissell is as liberal as his electorate lets him?
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #88 on: July 13, 2012, 05:33:24 am »
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What a tool. Doesn't he realise that Kissell is as liberal as his electorate lets him?

Probably - no. I was always surprised to hear from, say, partisan Democrats (Republicans are the same if not worse) something like: "Gene Taylor is a conservative, i don't like him and want a true progressive..". My next phrase always was: "In his district?HuhHuh!!!!" Gene Taylor was the most progressive congressman that MS-04 could elect (you may look at his predecessors like Lott and Colmer if in doubt). For me that was an automatic "period!" and automatic support. But - not for all. (For Republicans - vice versa: " I want a conservative!" - "Where, in MA-06, CT-05 and similar districts??!! No way".... and so on...)

In NC-08 Democratic candidate must be at least moderate-conservative to even have a chance. Yes, probably less conservative then Republican candidate, but not by much...
« Last Edit: July 13, 2012, 05:38:44 am by smoltchanov »Logged

Raging moderate. Big fan of "mavericks" (in all parties) and big non-lover of "reliable foot soldiers" (in all parties as well). Very much "anti-tea party". Political Matrix - E: -0.26, S: -3.48. Like to collect bans on partisan sites (4-5 on DKE (+ SSP) and on RRH).
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« Reply #89 on: July 14, 2012, 10:43:07 am »
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What do you think will happen to McIntyre and Kissell?

Well, they're both tracking rightward in terms of their votes; neither has endorsed Obama and I hear they might not even be in Charlotte for the DNC.

I say McIntyre is a modest favorite; his biggest obstacle will be Rouzer's strength in Jonhston county. However, if he makes it past this election, I think he can make inroads there, as its sent Etheridge to Congress for years. McIntyre has a very strong track record on veterans and military issues, which helps him win over voters who normally vote Republican.

Kissell is probably a tossup; he has great blue-collar appeal which helps him in the rural areas. He's also been endorsed by the NRA each time he's run.

I dont get how Republicans were able to remove Johnston county from NC-02(which gave Ellmers her entire margin of victory in 2010) without making that district much more Democratic.
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« Reply #90 on: July 14, 2012, 11:09:38 am »
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What do you think will happen to McIntyre and Kissell?

Well, they're both tracking rightward in terms of their votes; neither has endorsed Obama and I hear they might not even be in Charlotte for the DNC.

I say McIntyre is a modest favorite; his biggest obstacle will be Rouzer's strength in Jonhston county. However, if he makes it past this election, I think he can make inroads there, as its sent Etheridge to Congress for years. McIntyre has a very strong track record on veterans and military issues, which helps him win over voters who normally vote Republican.

Kissell is probably a tossup; he has great blue-collar appeal which helps him in the rural areas. He's also been endorsed by the NRA each time he's run.

I dont get how Republicans were able to remove Johnston county from NC-02(which gave Ellmers her entire margin of victory in 2010) without making that district much more Democratic.

Most of Ellmers' CD is new territory.
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« Reply #91 on: July 14, 2012, 11:21:07 am »
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What do you think of Hayden Rogers' chances in NC-11? Is he 100% toast or is there some route for victory? His profile and fundraising aren't bad, at least from my perspective.
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Miles
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« Reply #92 on: July 14, 2012, 11:30:56 am »
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What do you think will happen to McIntyre and Kissell?

Well, they're both tracking rightward in terms of their votes; neither has endorsed Obama and I hear they might not even be in Charlotte for the DNC.

I say McIntyre is a modest favorite; his biggest obstacle will be Rouzer's strength in Jonhston county. However, if he makes it past this election, I think he can make inroads there, as its sent Etheridge to Congress for years. McIntyre has a very strong track record on veterans and military issues, which helps him win over voters who normally vote Republican.

Kissell is probably a tossup; he has great blue-collar appeal which helps him in the rural areas. He's also been endorsed by the NRA each time he's run.

I dont get how Republicans were able to remove Johnston county from NC-02(which gave Ellmers her entire margin of victory in 2010) without making that district much more Democratic.

Most of Ellmers' CD is new territory.

Yep; 71% of the district is new.



Adding Moore and most of Randolph more than compensated for the loss of Johnston.

What do you think of Hayden Rogers' chances in NC-11? Is he 100% toast or is there some route for victory? His profile and fundraising aren't bad, at least from my perspective.

He was probably the best non-Shuler Democrat. Shuler could have held on, IMO. That said, Rogers does look like he's running a good campaign.
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Miles
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« Reply #93 on: July 17, 2012, 09:56:24 pm »
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Hudson ran the table in the CD8 primary with 64% and sweeping all counties:

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Miles
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« Reply #94 on: July 17, 2012, 10:26:20 pm »
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The CD11 primary was no contest; Meadows landslide, though Patterson took Burke and Cherokee counties.

Meadows- 76.3%
Patterson-23.7%


The 9th district was the closet of the night. Pendergraph got 51.4% in Mecklenburg but got blown away in the other counties, getting 29.7% in Iredell and 43% in Union.

Pittenger- 52.9%
Pendergraph- 47.1%
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Miles
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« Reply #95 on: July 17, 2012, 10:39:52 pm »
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lol, 'read this in an article tonight:

"Keadle lost his third bid for U.S. House, running each in three different districts."
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Miles
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« Reply #96 on: July 18, 2012, 01:42:11 am »
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The quarterly fundraising numbers out yesterday are better than I expected for Team D. Kissell, who is known for his historically weak fundraising, and Hayden Rogers are both up against their freshly-determined opponents. In fact, NC-08 was one of the top 5 districts where the DCCC spent the most last cycle. I do expect that Hudson and Meadows will improve though, now that they're actually the nominees and all.

CD8

Kissell
Raised- $266K
CoH- $609K

Hudson
Raised- $254K
CoH- $174K

CD11

Rogers
Raised- $191K
CoH- $192K

Meadows
Raised- $108K
CoH- $34K

Finally, this helps to justify my Lean D rating for NC-07; Rouzer, who got the party nod more than two months ago, badly trails McIntyre. At this time last cycle, McIntyre was at a $394 CoH edge over Ilario Pantano and was actually noticeably outraised that quarter; currently, though, he leads Rouzer by about 6:1 in terms of CoH.

CD7

McIntyre
Raised- $404K
CoH- $1,076K

Rouzer
Raised- $315K
CoH- $172K

In the NC-09 primary, Pittinger made a $940K self-loan last quarter, which helped to tilt the outcome in his favor tonight. Overall, he outspent Pendergraph by more than 5:1; Pittenger spent nearly $1.5 million compared to Pendergraph's  $280K.
« Last Edit: July 18, 2012, 01:46:18 am by MilesC56 »Logged


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« Reply #97 on: July 19, 2012, 07:19:06 pm »
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NC-7 is much more Democratic at the local level. If McIntyre can get 35% in Johnston and run up big margins in the southeast he should take it.
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Miles
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« Reply #98 on: July 19, 2012, 11:47:11 pm »
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NC-7 is much more Democratic at the local level. If McIntyre can get 35% in Johnston and run up big margins in the southeast he should take it.

Yep. Even if he got 33% in Johnston (what Etheridge got in 2010) he'd need to get 55% everywhere else.
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« Reply #99 on: July 30, 2012, 03:51:08 pm »
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NC 7 definitely looks like a hold for the D's.  The R's will probably have a decent night but they won't get that seat.  When an internal poll released by a candidate has that said candidate down, then you know you are in trouble.
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