North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races

[Mr.Phips]

What do you think will happen to McIntyre and Kissell?

Well, they're both tracking rightward in terms of their votes; neither has endorsed Obama and I hear they might not even be in Charlotte for the DNC.

I say McIntyre is a modest favorite; his biggest obstacle will be Rouzer's strength in Jonhston county. However, if he makes it past this election, I think he can make inroads there, as its sent Etheridge to Congress for years. McIntyre has a very strong track record on veterans and military issues, which helps him win over voters who normally vote Republican.

Kissell is probably a tossup; he has great blue-collar appeal which helps him in the rural areas. He's also been endorsed by the NRA each time he's run.

I dont get how Republicans were able to remove Johnston county from NC-02(which gave Ellmers her entire margin of victory in 2010) without making that district much more Democratic.

[Mr.Phips]

In the 1970's and 1980's, Bill Hefner used to get elected in a district even worse for Democrats than the new NC-08. 

[Mr.Phips]

Well, the DCCC can go screw itself:

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That's quite silly.

Exactly.

I don't see why they'd spend money going after an entrenched incumbent like Bono Mack (who's pretty clearly favored) as opposed to investing in a tossup race like Kissell's.

A lot of entrenched Dem incumbents lost in 2010;

[Mr.Phips]

Yeah, I'm sure I'll be turning out tons of maps.

The only county that seems to have already done it is New Hanover.

I looked at the NC-07 portion of it. McIntyre (left) won 51-49, even with the most Democratic precincts going to CD3. Romney carried the same precincts 64.2-39.5.

Im thinking Republicans made a bit of a mistake making the 3rd more Democratic.  A district very similar to the current NC-03 elected Marty Lancaster as recently as 1992 and that district is still a lot more Dem downballot than at the Presidential level. 

[Mr.Phips]

Well, CD3 dropped from 61% McCain to 56% in redistricting and Perdue would have carried it with 54%. Still, even she had special regional advantages. If Jones retires the best candidate I could think of for Democrats would be State Sen. Stan White; he represents the northern counties in the district and was just reelected in a competitive race. Still, the Democratic bench there is considerably thinner than it once was.

What if Jones himself switched?  I would think he'd be pretty safe here as a Dem. After all, he had been one for years. 

[Mr.Phips]

The loss of the entire state legislature in 2010 should have been enough to throw Parker out.  It was as if Democrats didnt even try there. 

[Mr.Phips]

Ugh, the Pope McCrory Administration started today.

so, can anyone with some good knowledge explain to me why Bev Perdue was so unpopular, even amongst many NC Democrats?

In a nutshell, she was a good legislator but a bad executive. She struggled to put together her first budget, with a Democratic super majority in the Assembly. She made a bad first impression and never quite recovered.

The state's unemployment rate was hovering at about 10.5% for most of her term as well (its currently down to 9.1%).

She also had some bad PR episodes, like this.

Why didnt she turn around and relentless blame the GOP legislature after 2010?  That may have allowed her to get back in the game. 

[Mr.Phips]

What may have helped Gene "McLaurin" to get huge margins in Richmond and Scotland counties is the fact that they are home to "Laurinburg."

He is the only NC legislator to represent a Romney district now, right?

Yep.

SD1 was pretty close, which makes it that much more stinging for Democrats.

Any Democrats left in Romney districts in the state House?  How about Republicans in Obama districts?