North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races

[Miles]

District 1
DEM: Rep. G.K Butterfield (D-Wilson)
-Incumbent filed for 5th term.
REP: Peter DiLauro
LIB: Darryl Holloman

District 2
DEM: Steve Wilkins
REP: Rep. Renee Ellmers (R-Harnett)
-Incumbent seeking 2nd term.
LIB: Brian Irving (L)

District 3
DEM: Erick Anderson
REP: Rep. Walter Jones (R-Pitt)
-Incumbent filed seeking 10th term.

District 4
DEM: Rep. David Price (D-Chapel Hill)
-Incumbent seeking 13th term.
REP: Tim D'Annuzio (R)
LIB: Jim Allen (R)

District 5
DEM: Elisabeth Motsinger (D)
REP: Rep. Virginia Foxx (R-Avery)
-Incumbent seeking 5th term.

District 6
DEM: Tony Foriest
REP: Rep. John Howard Coble (R-Guilford)
-Incumbent seeking 15th term.

District 7[/u]
DEM: Rep. Mike McIntyre (D-Robeson)
-Incumbent seeking 8th term.
REP: David Rouzer

District 8
DEM: Rep. Larry Kissell (D-Montgomery)
-Incumbent seeking 3rd term.
REP: Richard Hudson

District 9
Rep. Sue W. Myrick (R-Mecklenburg)
-Incumbent will not seek 10th term.
DEM: Jennifer Roberts
REP: Robert Pittenger
LIB: Curtis Campbell

District 10
DEM: Patsy Keever
REP:Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-Gaston)
-Incumbent seeking 5th term.

District 11
Rep. Heath Shuler (D-Haywood)
-Incumbent not running for 4th term.
DEM: Hayden Rogers (D)
REP: Mark Meadows (R)

District 12
DEM: Rep. Mel Watt (D-Mecklenburg)
-Incumbent seeking for 11th term.
REP: Jack Brosch (R)

District 13
Rep. Brad Miller (D-Raleigh)
Incumbent not seeking 6th term.
DEM: Charles Malone
REP: George Holding

President/Governor numbers:

[Miles]

For Shuler I'd say it Jeff Hunt; he's the most entrenched. He's from Henderson county, but Shuler performs poorly in that part of the district anyway.

Both of McIntyre's have pros and cons. The GOP establishment seems to favor Rouzer; that's why they drew the 7th to include Johnston county. Still, I think Rouzer's appeal will be pretty limited to Johnston county.
Pantano has more name recognition in the rest of the district and he made a good showing in 2010. Pantano won Pender and Brunswick counties in 2010. The new 7th includes all of Brunswick, as well as the conservative parts of Pender and New Hanovor.
Bottom line: I think Pantano would be stronger, but the establishment will probably push for Rouzer.

Kissell better hopes he gets Robinson....

[Miles]

Kissell better hopes he gets Robinson....

That famous mad ultrarightwinger? "Black Jesse Helms"?)))))

He'd be the weakest opponent.

Kissell would be an underdog to any of the others.

[Miles]

So are the districts official now?

And from the way things look now, I think Districts 7,8,13 could be turnovers to the Republicans. I think Shuler will hold on though.

The lawsuits don't seem to be going anywhere.

[Miles]

GOD DAMMIT!!!

[Miles]

Seeing as McIntyre is the only NC conservaDam left with a decent chance of winning, I made a baseline chart.

This is how he would have to perform in each county to get 50.1% districtwide.

County Analysis:

Johnston:  A fairly conservative county. It was the geographical core of the old NC-02 , but it was more than canceled out by liberal parts of Cumberland and Wake counties. Etheridge only got 33% here in 2010 against Ellmers. I put McIntyre at 37%, assuming he faces Rouzer, who represents Johnston county. Maybe McIntyre could crack 40% here against Pantano.

Sampson: It doesn't vote for Democratic Presidential candidates, but all the statewide Democrats won here in 2008. Perdue got 53%; I think McIntyre could match that, of not do slightly better.

Duplin: Like Sampson, voted against Obama, but is Democratic on the state level. Perdue got 59% and Hagan got 53%; I think 60% is reasonable for McIntyre, since much of this county is already in his district.

Lenior: The liberal parts of this county are in NC-01.

Cumberland: The district now includes only a few (red) precincts here. 45% is probably in reach for McIntyre.

Robeson: The 7th now only has an small arm of Robeson left; McIntyre lives in this county and he's carried the county as a whole by overwhelming margins in the past. I think he could break 70% in the few precincts he has left here.

Hoke: I think these are fairly liberal precincts, so 75% shouldn't be out of reach.

Bladen: Though its trending R nationally, Bladen is solidly D at the state level. It gave Hagan 59%, Perdue 65% and it even voted for Marshall over Burr in 2010. I think McIntyre has cracked 80% here in the past, so he should be easily able to crack 70%.

Columbus: This was one of the counties that swung most against Obama, but like Bladen, it gave Perdue 65%. At the very least, McIntyre should be able to match that.

Brunswick: Brunswick was one of the first counties in southeastern NC to shake off its Democratic roots. The only statewide Democrats who won here in 2008 were Hagan and Cooper; Pantano also won here in 2010. I have McIntyre running 2 points ahead of Perdue here, getting 47%. Maybe he could carry Brunswick county against Rouzer; I think overall, Rouzer's appeal in the southern counties will be limited.

New Hanover: The liberal parts of this county have been sucked out and put into Jones' CD3. I think McInTyre could hit 47%; probably better against Rouzer, but worse against Pantano.

Pender: Only a few precincts are left in the district. McIntyre was left with the relatively conservative parts of the county, which are based around Surf City.  

[Miles]

Maybe if I feel depressed, I'll also do NC-08

[Miles]

GOD DAMMIT!!!

[gives hug]




Btw, what are the odds that the latest map with be overruled by the courts?

I don't think the courts would throw out NC-11. All the litigation would likely deal with NC-1 and NC-12.

The only potential argument you could make about NC-11 is that Asheville is being removed from its historical community of interest.

[Miles]

I'm planning on doing NC-08 soon,

I was sifting through some numbers and this really shows the huge amount of crossover support Perdue had in eastern NC.

In the parts Lenior county in the 7th district, Obama got 28%, Hagan got 35% but Perdue got 51%. Pretty impressive.  Surely McIntyre could do better than the 40% I gave him there.

[Miles]

I'll post this here as well.

Some possible replacements for Sue Myrick:

- State Sen. Bob Rucho. My Senator . The mastermind behind the so-called "fair and legal" Republican redistricting maps. He Chaired the Senate redistricting Committee and drew the maps; much like Brad Miller did 10 years ago. He lives in Matthews. From what I've seen, he has a good relationship with Myrick.

- State Rep. Ruth Samuleson. My representative . Her district includes the more affluent parts of south-central Mecklenburg county.

- House Speaker Thom Tillis. Lives in northern Mecklenburg county. Still I'm not sure he'd want to run for Congress; with the Republicans having likely control of the Assembly for the next decade, his position as Speaker should be pretty secure. I've heard rumors that he plans to run against Hagan in 2014.

- John Lassiter. He was on the Charlotte city council and ran against Anthony Foxx for Charlotte mayor in 2009, losing by 3,000 votes. Haven't heard much from him since.

- Robert Pittenger. Preceded Rucho in Senate District 39. Very rich. He ran for Lieutenant Governor in 2008, but lost 51-46 to Walter Dalton. Pittenger hasn't ruled out a Congressional run.

[Miles]

Is Sue Myrick not running for re-election?

Nope, she's retiring.

[Miles]

Is Sue Myrick not running for re-election?

Nope, she's retiring.

NOOOOOOO!!!! She was a good congresswoman...

As her constituent, I beg to differ!

[Miles]

Filings:

McIntyre has not yet filed.

Except he has...

[Miles]

Who is Randy Crow? What county is he based in?

Balden. McIntyre is going to get at least 70% there...

[Miles]

Who is Randy Crow? What county is he based in?

Balden. McIntyre is going to get at least 70% there...

Do you mean Bladen?

I am more interested in his impact on the primary.

OMG, thats funny...Balden. lol

He seems like a pretty fringe candidate to me...I say still more or less a two-way contest between Rouzer and Pantano.

[Miles]

I updated the candidates list with the official filings.

[Miles]

Pantano is up 2:1 on Rouzer. It makes sense, since Pantano has more name recognition after running districtwide last cycle and Rouzer's only base is in Johnston county. No word on the general election though...

[Miles]

McHenry wins Buncombe county GOP straw poll 41-23 over Ken Fortenberry.

At the forum, Fortenberry told the 70 or so attendees that it was time for a change in leadership. "If you love what's happening in Washington … then continue the course, keep sending the same people up there," he said. Alluding to the fact that McHenry is serving his fourth consecutive term after first being elected to congress at the age of 29, he added: "We don't need a career politician who has never had a real job."

lol


Over in the 9th, retiring Sue Myrick endorsed in the crowded 10-way GOP primary. She endorsed Mecklenburg county commissioner Jim Pendergraph. McHenry endorsed 2008 Lt. Gov. loser Bob Pittenger.

[Miles]

Well, this makes my day a bit better.

[Miles]

my G-d, Kissell just can't be beaten, can he? lol

He has as a lot of blue-collar and rural appeal.

I think his vote against the healthcare bill will help him.

Even though its an internal poll, its still good news.

[Miles]

It's an internal poll? lol...


Also, I thought it was Shuler and McIntrye who voted against Healthcare? Not Kissell.

All 3 of them voted no on its passage, but McIntyre was the only one to actually vote for its repeal.

[Miles]

Donald Rumsfeld is helping Pantano.

[Miles]

Donald Rumsfeld is helping Pantano.

Pantano for Congress!

The more I look at the race, the more I think that Rouzer is gonna get pwned. He has no appeal/name recognition outside of Johnston county.

[Miles]

Howard Coble leads in GOP primary polling with 64% and has a 75/8 favorable rating.

But, this pollster seems to think he could be forced into a runoff:

The polling firm asked respondents to react to "some information about Coble that could potentially come up during the course of the campaign," causing Coble's ballot score to drop to 47 percent, "below the crucial 50 percent mark."

IIRC, don't you only need to break 40% to avoid a runoff in NC?

[Miles]

Donald Rumsfeld is helping Pantano.

Pantano for Congress!

The more I look at the race, the more I think that Rouzer is gonna get pwned. He has no appeal/name recognition outside of Johnston county.

Ellmers is endorsing Rouzer. Rouzer, not surprisingly, also has support from Tillis and Berger.

Jones endorsed Pantano last cycle, so I'm assuming that still holds.

Looks like immigration was a big issue at their last debate