Obama up 7 against Romney in Ohio

[King]

Ohio was D+8 (39-31-30) in 2008 exit polls when Obama won by 4 and R+5 in 2004 (35-40-25) when Bush won by 3.

This leads to believe the voters of Ohio are liars.

As PPP points out, McCain led Obama 49-41 at the same time in 08, though I doubt Obama's favorables were that low.

And by the way the nomination fight didn't cost Obama Ohio, and he didn't even win it's primary.

A look at our database shows McCain consistently led Obama in Ohio until the September economic collapse.

A double dip is the only GOP hope.

[King]

Looking deeper into the results, I can't see how Obama loses this election.  He has a 61% approval rating in this state with people who classify themselves as moderate, meanwhile the favorability among moderates is Gingrich -53, Romney -33, Santorum -31, Paul -29. 

Worse yet, Obama leads Gingrich, Paul and Romney among seniors, which McCain carried by 11 points in a 2008 losing effort and Bush by 16 in a narrow victory.

[King]

President will always be about person not policy.  Congressional control is a better indicator of public opinion.  The second the Democrats nominate another Gore the Bore or Kerrybot, they'll lose to a more charismatic choice like Rubio.