What time will Virginia be called and for whom?

[Joe Biden 2020]

Virginia is likely to be the last state called the way the dynamics are setting up.

For reference the polls close in Virginia at 7:00 pm EST (6:00 pm CST, 4:00 pm PST).

EDIT:  I'm thinking 12:00 am EST for Mitt Romney by a thinner-than-a-squeaker.

[wan]

you really think romneys going to be the next president don't you?

[Joe Biden 2020]

you really think romneys going to be the next president don't you?

He's got a fair shot.

[fezzyfestoon]

At this point I would guess between 10:30 and 11 assuming an Obama win similar to in 2008 that makes it easier to predict.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I believe Romney is being underpolled in most of these swing states.

So while it may look like Obama is ahead in Virginia right now, I do think it will ultimately go to Romney. Especially when Independents actually get to the ballot box and have to cast a real vote. Romney is a pallatable and relatively "safe" candidate with a little bit of promise. Obama has ineptly waffled away four years.

Rhetoric aside, I'm thinking somewhere near 10:30 for Romney.

[Joe Biden 2020]

I believe Romney is being underpolled in most of these swing states.

So while it may look like Obama is ahead in Virginia right now, I do think it will ultimately go to Romney. Especially when Independents actually get to the ballot box and have to cast a real vote. Romney is a pallatable and relatively "safe" candidate with a little bit of promise. Obama has ineptly waffled away four years.

Rhetoric aside, I'm thinking somewhere near 10:30 for Romney.

Plus, you have to remember it is only Memorial Day.  We still have 5 1/4 months until November 6.  The polls can, and probably will, change - a LOT!

[President von Cat]

I think for Obama at around midnight. You will essentially have NOVA coming out in droves for the incumbent, some of them are voting for job security. Many in NOVA are there because of high paying government jobs, and who wants Romney cutting away at that?

Meanwhile I feel that Romney is a terrible match for the rural parts of the state. His faith, his rhetoric, his background.. all of it couldn't be more wrong.

Virginia's proximity to DC makes it much easier for Obama to make frequent visits. Not to mention he can flood the northern parts of the state will millennial college students to help get organized. His ground game in Virginia is top notch. I participated in an Obama registration drive in June 2011.. just to give you an idea of how early they've been running.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

I believe Romney is being underpolled in most of these swing states.

So while it may look like Obama is ahead in Virginia right now, I do think it will ultimately go to Romney. Especially when Independents actually get to the ballot box and have to cast a real vote. Romney is a pallatable and relatively "safe" candidate with a little bit of promise. Obama has ineptly waffled away four years.

Rhetoric aside, I'm thinking somewhere near 10:30 for Romney.

Romney is the king of waffles.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Since folks here are just guessing for who they want to win, I'll say Obama at 11:30.

[BaldEagle1991]

At midnight, and it will be a 51% Obama, 49% Romney result.

[pbrower2a]

The news media were slow to call Virginia because it hadn't gone for a Republican nominee for President since the LBJ landslide of 1964. Contrast Iowa, an instant call -- but it had gone four of the last five Presidential elections and showed no sign of being a nailbiter. Iowa didn't go that much more for President Obama than did Virginia. Virginia just had not gone for a Democrat in a close Presidential election since 1948.

If the returns of votes in Virginia look like a replay of 2008, then Virginia will be called much earlier this time even if it is slightly closer.

[old timey villain]

I just love the fact that Virginia is even worth mentioning these days when it was solidly GOP as recently as 2004. It really shows Obama's strength.

By the way, Obama will win VA easily.

NOVA is where the magic happens. And it looks to me like Obama's strength there in 2008 wasn't a fluke. Gerry Connolly, a NOVA Democrat, still won in 2010 during a GOP year with a more conservative turnout. That signifies an electorate that is much more friendly to Democratic incumbents. And yes, Obama's ground game in VA is amazing. So he will win relatively comfortably.

[rbt48]

Romney 52, Obama 47.  Called at 10:17 PM EST.

[krazen1211]

Called at midnight EST for Romney.

[Donerail]

Romney 49.5, Obama 49 at midnight.

[Kevin]

I say at around 10:30 PM 52-44% for Romney.

The reasons I say this is that although the recession isn't as severe in much of the state(esp. NOVA). Along with the fact that Obama has a strong organization here in the state. The forumites saying that VA is going to go solidly for Obama etc. Aren't distinguishing where and for what these factors like government spending ect is coming from. And are conveniently forgetting the recent trends and election outcomes throughout Virginia since 2009.

In terms of NOVA and government spending. The reasons why Obama did so well here in 2008 were due to a mixture of events like Bush fatigue/the economic meltdown, an inept campaign by the GOP etc. Although, I do lament that changing demographics did contribute to Obama's win here. Another important aspect contributing to Obama's victory was the moderate Democrat/DLC types like Warner, and Kaine(who was still popular at the time) who helped built the Democratic network in VA.

However, since then it's been largely downhill for the Democrats since then. Bob McDonnell defeated Creigh Deeds(who had very heavy WH backing in 2009), the Dem's lost 3 House seats here in 2010 and almost lost a 4 in what should have been a safe D district given it's previous numbers. Also, the Democrats suffered a beating lost NOV in legislative and local elections throughout the state(incl. NOVA). Lastly many parts of the VA Democratic Party are going through a stage of infighting and scandals at the current time.

What's more since the Democrats on here are sooo certain that Obama will win due to the government workers they are failing to notice who and what part of the government these voters are working for. Most of them work for government departments & agencies like the DoD, CIA, NSA, the various Armed forces depts like the Army, Navy, etc if not active military themselves. NOVA has ton's of high-ranking military officers, NCO's, and retired military as well. The same goes for much of the rest of the state too. Now with the President and Congressional Democrats being highly supportive of defense cuts do you really think these type of people are going to support the president/party that wants to do away with the resources and jobs that they have?

This is what I stand by and I think Romney may very well(the same case in other states too)be under polling in VA at the present time and I can guarantee Obama's lead will be erased here sooner or later.

As a disclaimer to those who may respond harshly I live in NOVA and in a county that went to Obama 52-44% in 2008 and hasn't treated the Dem's on any level well since.