The Great Brazil Topic
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Author Topic: The Great Brazil Topic  (Read 61453 times)
Simfan34
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« Reply #500 on: May 18, 2017, 01:51:10 PM »

The chances of this guy becoming President just shot up.



But ideally someone like Joaquim Barbosa will be selected.
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kyc0705
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« Reply #501 on: May 18, 2017, 02:23:53 PM »

The House of Cards twitter account has a few words on this matter: https://twitter.com/HouseofCards/status/864992970994368512
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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #502 on: May 18, 2017, 02:26:16 PM »

Temer has just denied he's resigning. However, the tapes will probably be made public very soon (perhaps today) and there's no way he'll survive to that.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #503 on: May 18, 2017, 02:38:51 PM »

Temer has just denied he's resigning. However, the tapes will probably be made public very soon (perhaps today) and there's no way he'll survive to that.

Temer must be listening to this right now.
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Edu
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« Reply #504 on: May 18, 2017, 04:26:54 PM »
« Edited: May 18, 2017, 04:29:18 PM by Edu »

To find out that a South American country is corrupt to it's bones isn't really noteworthy.

What I think it's interesting here is that these Lula-Dilma-Temer-Whoever corruptions are actually resulting in some real life political consequences instead of corrupt people carrying off business as usual.
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RodPresident
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« Reply #505 on: May 18, 2017, 10:10:04 PM »

The chances of this guy becoming President just shot up.



But ideally someone like Joaquim Barbosa will be selected.
This guy is the Commander of Brazilian Army, general Vilas Boas. But they will trying someone from justice. Marina Silva is openly courting members of justice system to get along her.
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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #506 on: May 19, 2017, 08:58:16 PM »

So the tapes were released, and though they were damaging, they just didn't damage Temer enough to force him to resign immediately. Anyway, he's still hanging by a thread and many parties could abandon him this weekend. That would make his situation untenable.

The key factor here is what PSDB will do, as Temer has no shot of surviving without them. My gut feeling is that they'll throw both Temer and Aecio under the bus ASAP, otherwise the party will be obliterated next year (just like PT last year).
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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #507 on: May 23, 2017, 11:27:44 AM »

It's been 6 days since the scandal started and Temer is still trying to survive, claiming the tape recorded against him was tampered. This hardly matters, though, because he still confessed he had a secret meeting with a notoriously corrupt businessman who told him about bribing judges and prosecutors.

Many impeachment requests have already been filed to the presidency of the Chamber of Deputies. However, they have been put on hold by Rodrigo Maia, who's been quietly waiting to see what Temer will do. He knows that if Temer falls, he'll be the next in line, at least for 30 days (and many believe, like me, that he'd be a strong candidate, possibly a consensus candidate, in the indirect election).

There are 2 factors right now which have to be taken into account.

The 1st one is that Temer knows he has no base anymore and just doesn't resign because he knows he could go to jail quickly if he does so, thus it's been reported that Temer would be willing to resign once his succession is arranged and with the promise that his successor would pardon him (his successor probably won't probably run for reelection in 2018, so he/she should be unafraid of impersonating Gerald Ford).

The 2nd one is that the Dilma-Temer presidential ticket will be judged by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) on June 6th, and it's likely that TSE will declare the 2014 election null due to the fact that Dilma-Temer got tons of money for their campaign from bribes, collected through (apparently) legal and totally illegal donations. If TSE does this, it'll hardly matter if Temer resigns or not, he'll be out of office soon. He could still appeal to the Supreme Court to try to gain time, but such an appeal will be doomed to failure. All that being said, get ready, because it's likely that Brazil will have it's first indirect presidential election since 1985.
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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #508 on: May 24, 2017, 01:55:21 PM »

Rioters set fire to the Agriculture Ministry building:

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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #509 on: May 25, 2017, 01:48:28 PM »

Brazil's bar association (OAB) has just filed articles of impeachment against Temer. This is relevant because it was OAB that started Collor's impeachment, and is also relevant because Dilma's impeachment gained steam after OAB endorsed it. Thus, while Rodrigo Maia may dismiss some other articles of impeachment as weak, it'll be hard for him to ignore this one. My bet is that if TSE doesn't take Temer down early next month Maia will start impeachment proceedings against Temer soon after.
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Rocky Rockefeller
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« Reply #510 on: May 28, 2017, 01:32:43 PM »

Temer lost the support of 4 more parties the parties are:

Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB)
Popular Socialist Party (PPS)
Podemos (Formerly PTN)
Humanist Solidarity Party (PHS)


Together the 4 parties have 66 deputies.

How close does that put him to a potential impeachment?
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CrabCake
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« Reply #511 on: May 28, 2017, 02:27:04 PM »

how are PSDB dealing with Neves?
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mvd10
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« Reply #512 on: May 28, 2017, 02:33:23 PM »

Temer lost the support of 4 more parties the parties are:

Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB)
Popular Socialist Party (PPS)
Podemos (Formerly PTN)
Humanist Solidarity Party (PHS)


Together the 4 parties have 66 deputies.

These are pretty hilarious names for pro-Temer parties.
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RodPresident
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« Reply #513 on: May 28, 2017, 05:09:16 PM »

Temer lost the support of 4 more parties the parties are:

Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB)
Popular Socialist Party (PPS)
Podemos (Formerly PTN)
Humanist Solidarity Party (PHS)


Together the 4 parties have 66 deputies.

These are pretty hilarious names for pro-Temer parties.
PTN and PHS are small "rent parties" that supports who pays better them. They grow a lot after 2016. In Brazil, many congressman go from large parties to small parties to control state sections to have control over coalitions and party funds. PPS is a joke socialist party (one congressman of them is the reporter of Retirement reform), while PSB became a bizarre thing during Campos era (ultraconservatives like Paulo Bornhausen and Heráclito Fortes are in, but they have a good progressive faction, like senators da Mata and Capiberibe).
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Kalwejt
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« Reply #514 on: May 30, 2017, 03:54:12 PM »

Temer lost the support of 4 more parties the parties are:

Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB)
Popular Socialist Party (PPS)
Podemos (Formerly PTN)
Humanist Solidarity Party (PHS)


Together the 4 parties have 66 deputies.

These are pretty hilarious names for pro-Temer parties.

Party names in Brazil and Portugal tend to be confusing.
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Mike88
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« Reply #515 on: May 30, 2017, 05:31:13 PM »

Temer lost the support of 4 more parties the parties are:

Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB)
Popular Socialist Party (PPS)
Podemos (Formerly PTN)
Humanist Solidarity Party (PHS)


Together the 4 parties have 66 deputies.

These are pretty hilarious names for pro-Temer parties.

Party names in Brazil and Portugal tend to be confusing.
I think Brazil beats us in that category. Wink
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Kalwejt
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« Reply #516 on: May 30, 2017, 06:02:44 PM »

Temer lost the support of 4 more parties the parties are:

Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB)
Popular Socialist Party (PPS)
Podemos (Formerly PTN)
Humanist Solidarity Party (PHS)


Together the 4 parties have 66 deputies.

These are pretty hilarious names for pro-Temer parties.

Party names in Brazil and Portugal tend to be confusing.
I think Brazil beats us in that category. Wink

Well, your main right-wing party is called Social Democratic, which is funny, but yes, Brazil does it to the extreme Wink
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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #517 on: May 31, 2017, 02:33:54 PM »

Temer lost the support of 4 more parties the parties are:

Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB)
Popular Socialist Party (PPS)
Podemos (Formerly PTN)
Humanist Solidarity Party (PHS)


Together the 4 parties have 66 deputies.

These are pretty hilarious names for pro-Temer parties.

Party names in Brazil and Portugal tend to be confusing.
I think Brazil beats us in that category. Wink

Well, your main right-wing party is called Social Democratic, which is funny, but yes, Brazil does it to the extreme Wink

Actually, calling PSDB a right-wing party is quite a stretch.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #518 on: May 31, 2017, 02:57:11 PM »
« Edited: May 31, 2017, 03:03:58 PM by Simfan34 »

1.500 soldiers arrived in Brasilia to reinforce the security, the Military Police estimated 35.000 people protesting at it's peak and the CUT estimated 200.000 people during all the day, ministries buildings have been targets of vandalism. 7 people were jailed and 49 injured.

The CUT launched the #, "#OcupaBrasilia" (#OccupyBrasilia)

The chances of this guy becoming President just shot up.



But ideally someone like Joaquim Barbosa will be selected.

He is denying there will be any military intervention almost every other day now. To me, the increasing frequency of such statements closely mimics the pattern that of the Thai army's similar assurances that they wouldn't stage a coup, which both became more frequent and increasingly ambiguous over time, and we all know how that ended.
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Mike88
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« Reply #519 on: May 31, 2017, 04:46:35 PM »

Temer lost the support of 4 more parties the parties are:

Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB)
Popular Socialist Party (PPS)
Podemos (Formerly PTN)
Humanist Solidarity Party (PHS)


Together the 4 parties have 66 deputies.

These are pretty hilarious names for pro-Temer parties.

Party names in Brazil and Portugal tend to be confusing.
I think Brazil beats us in that category. Wink

Well, your main right-wing party is called Social Democratic, which is funny, but yes, Brazil does it to the extreme Wink

Actually, calling PSDB a right-wing party is quite a stretch.

Even Lula and FHC already said that it isn't right wing.
I believe Kalwejt was referring to the Portuguese PSD but talking about the PSDB, how does the party position itself? The PT is the main center-left party, PMDB is a catch all party from the left to right... and PSDB? A moderate centrist party which sometimes leans left or right?
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Simfan34
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« Reply #520 on: May 31, 2017, 05:14:47 PM »

Is the phrase "a party of the right-wing, not a right-wing party" still accurate?
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Kalwejt
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« Reply #521 on: May 31, 2017, 05:55:09 PM »

Well, I may be wrong. I just have some problems seeing PSDB as centre-left or simply centre. Maybe I'm not familiar enough with Brazilian context.
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Mike88
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« Reply #522 on: May 31, 2017, 07:20:24 PM »

Well, I may be wrong. I just have some problems seeing PSDB as centre-left or simply centre. Maybe I'm not familiar enough with Brazilian context.
The military dictatorship had it's toll in the political thinking of the Brazilian society, in my opinion. As i understand, there's a bit of right-wing trauma where people on the right or liberal conservatives are a bit embarrassed to admit what they believe in. The same happened in Portugal after the 25th April and even today there's a bit anti-rightwing, anti-liberal speech here and people just don't say what they really think. That's one of the reasons the political parties names are so weird.

As i understand, by what Yankee said, the PSDB is the anti-PT party. It doesn't matter if they are center-left, center or center-right, they aggregate many groups of different political views that have one thing in common: they're distrust of PT. In politics, that's enough.

Also, i find it fascinating the similarities between the PSDB and the early PSD in the 70's. In 1976, the PSD also applied for the Socialist International but the PS block it. Because of this decision, Sá Carneiro, the founder of the PSD, swung to right and that shift to the right was cemented during the Cavaco Silva years between 1985 and 1995. Interesting. Smiley
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Kalwejt
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« Reply #523 on: June 05, 2017, 06:22:16 PM »

https://www.yahoo.com/news/brazils-president-gets-police-questions-corruption-probe-230303800.html

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RodPresident
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« Reply #524 on: June 05, 2017, 10:10:21 PM »

Temer is getting better than Lula that was ilegally conducted to police questioning without being asked first to go to police.
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