The Great Brazil Topic

[Simfan34]

What the Sao Paulo municipal election looking like? Is Kassab likely to be reelected? Will Marta or Serra run again? And what is about Serra joining the PSB? Serra is the PSDB!

[Simfan34]

Why is Brazilan politics so variable? National parties (mainly PSDB and PT) polling so dismally in some elections while fairly minor parties are in the lead? I mean the PT and PSDB and PT are tied for last in Porto Alegre.

Hey, how's my man Beto Richa doing? And how is Andre Pucinelli- last I read about him he was facing some corruption charges.

Alagoas' justice refused to former Deputy Francisco Tenório (PMN) to resume his work of police sheriff. He was with an ankle monitor because links with homicides.
New poll in São Paulo:
José Serra (PSDB) 30% (+9%)
Celso Russomano (PRB) 19% (+2%)
Netinho de Paula (PC do B) 10% (-1%)
Paulo Pereira da Silva (PDT) 8%
Soninha Francine (PPS) 7% (-2%)
Gabriel Chalita (PMDB) 7% (+1%)
Fernando Haddad (PT) 3% (-1%)
Luiz Flavio D'Urso (PTB) 1% (-1%)
Levy Fidelix (PRTB) 1%
Soninha won't run and PPS will endorse Serra. Netinho too because he's unelectable due to domestic violence history.
Serra had a gaffe. He said that Brazil stayed as "United States of Brazil", name of country until 1967.

I thought the PPS was a leftist party. And how is the PT's candidate doing so poorly? Is there no party loyalty in Brazil?

[Simfan34]

I see. So does that leave Soninha a leftist?

What about 2014-is Richa in consideration?

[Simfan34]

Cassio was impeached? When was this?

[Simfan34]

PSDB will endorse Serra.

Well, duh! He's in the lead, right?

Isidorio ran for PT in 2002 and got in, attempted a seat in Brasilia in 2006 for PSC and failed and came back in 2010 for PSB. He's a lunatic. He would make a good candidate for M5S in Italy.

Well M5S is actually looking like a major party, so... but this party shifting is weird. Speaking of party shifters, can anyone tell me when Rita Camata switched from PMBD to PSDB and what positions she's held? Even the Portuguese wiki won't tell me, all I know is that she's been a Federal Deputy. Was she ever mayor of Vitoria?

Now, Perillo's problems are turning for worse. He sold a home where Cachoeira was living before prison. Home owner said that he paid in money, while he says that he received three checks.

And Veja is proving again to be more hackish than Pravda and Granma multiplied by FOX. This week issue is trying their best to transform It in a problem of the government, while It seems to me that Grupo Abril has more than weak connections with the story.

Veja? Hackish? Really? I say this without sarcasm; I thought they were quite impartial. Rightist, yes, but balanced, more akin to The Atlantic than anything. Speaking of Veja, is there an English version somewhere one could subscribe to?

I've always been surprised as to how right-wing the Brazilian press generally is, and how the people keep on electing PT candidates.

In Salvador, former mayor Mario Kértesz (PMDB) will go back to politics after 20 years. He went from politics to become one of most-listened radio hosts in Bahia. He served two times as mayor, one as governor-appointed from 1979 to 1981 and elected from 1986 to 1988.

Wow! Eliseu, now Kértesz... Who'll be on Return of the Mummy III, Antônio Ermírio?

What is this I hear about Collor making a presidential run in 2014?

[Simfan34]

Serra is in lead. I corrected. It's PR which will endorse Serra.
Camata served five terms in Congress from 1987 to 2003 and from 2007 to 2011. She went to PSDB because her friendship with Serra and after her husband, Gerson Camata (PMDB) was going to retire (or denied renomination) from the Senate. In FHC government, she had a very anti-government vote, but was nominated for VP.
Brazilian press is a sh**t, but PT voters are poor people who don't link to media and don't have money to buy Veja.

But isn't Gerson still a senator and PMBD? If Serra had won, could Camata have run for President in 2010?

[Simfan34]

Big News:
Lula and Haddad made an agreement with Interpol's Wanted Paulo Maluf (PP). Erundina said that she can drop out as running-mate.

What sort of agreement? I was thinking the other day, is Malufe going to ever hold political office again? You've got to almost feel sorry for him. Almost became president, but pissed too many people off....

[Simfan34]

Former Petrobras Director Reveals: Bribe Was Made To PT Treasurer

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http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/internacional/en/brazil/2014/10/1530309-former-petrobras-director-reveals-bribe-made-to-workers-party-was-paid-to-its-treasurer-political-party-denies-it.shtml

[Simfan34]

Any chance?

Brazil: 10 good reasons to think the two-month-old government will go

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http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2015/02/25/brazil-10-good-reasons-to-think-the-two-month-old-government-will-go/

[Simfan34]

Great post! Also the latest Datafolha approval poll for Dilma produced the following result:

13% approve
62% disapprove

The Economist notes that Collor hit a peak 68% disapproval in 1992.

[Simfan34]

And here we go! (from non wacko-leftist sources)

Brazil can’t afford to ignore protesters when they’re calling for the military

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Interesting... they are still there.

[Simfan34]

I don't know. Let's get the Folha's perspective:

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The problem is the difficulty of getting something specific to impeach Dilma, getting a supermajority to  vote for impeachment, and you'd still have Temer as the next in line, and since he's in the PMBD it's nigh impossible for him to be impeached, and without him leaving the picture you are not going to be able to have snap elections- and all by the end of next year. If not, the Congress would elect one of their own to the presidency (which would include Aecio, but this Congress is hardly likely to do that).

Unlike Dilma, Collor had a limited political base in the Congress, being an outsider, so there wasn't any large constituency that stood to lose much by impeaching him. Getting rid of Dilma will likely be much harder. Which is why I suspect people are espousing these kind of ideas- "get the military to cut through the political mess (which is the cause of all this, anyway!), sack the Presidency and the Congress, and hold snap elections," in a few months... or so, following their "roadmap" (a word that should always raise alarm bells) for National Salvation and Order or whatever they'll call it. Maybe they'll even have a catchy song like in Thailand.

This is hardly likely- but I think that the probability of it happening is inversely related to the probability that Dilma could successfully impeached.

[Simfan34]

48% of Brazilians support a coup if "corruption is bad"

http://news.vanderbilt.edu/2015/03/nearly-half-of-brazilians-support-coup-if-corruption-is-high-lapop/

[Simfan34]

Well that's... interesting.

So is this:
http://www.ibtimes.com/brazil-military-coup-protesters-demand-intervention-against-dilma-rousseff-amid-1881925

[Simfan34]

Has the Army made any noises recently? Is Temer going down too? If so then there's no need for anything exciting.

[Simfan34]

Middle class elite yellowshirts and populist redshirts? Talk about deja vu...

I hear Collor is also being investigated.

[Simfan34]

The PSDB has held SP since Covas. Would they be willing to give it up? Would the Presidency even be a done deal?

[Simfan34]

but the PMDB is also implicated in corruption? Is the VP himself clean? Could they try to impeach him too? Could there be early elections?

I believe the risk was that, if improperly gained funds were found to have been used in the presidential elections, the election results could be declared irregular and invalidated by the Supreme Court, claiming not only Dilma's post but Temer's job as well. If this were to happen-- I think-- before the end of this year, this would trigger a new presidential election, but if  it were to happen afterwards the Congress would be tasked with elected a caretaker to fill out Dilma's term. I could be wrong though-- one of our Brazilian posters can correct me if so.

It'll be interesting to see, after all is said and done, what political future-- if any-- Moro will have, and if this will dovetail with the conservative resurgence Paleobrazilian described (it goes without saying that, while RodPresident makes some good counter-points, PaleoB's policy prescriptions are by and large the right ones).

A "classical liberal" movement could very easily, especially after all that has happened, make "good governance" its watchword; a crusading anti-corruption judge would be a natural leader in that case. I assume the socially conservative movements are at least in large part Protestant (Garotinho, Pastor Everaldo, etc, etc). Where does PSDB fit into all this? I have seen it described  as a "party of the right rather than a right-wing party", but might this enable a more formal shift? Then there is legislative and electoral reform, but that is a whole 'nother issue entirely...

[Simfan34]

You could not make this kind of drama up. It's picture-perfect grandstanding. Just watching this, I'm wondering if it's all a rating-boosting conspiracy by the television networks/

Fmr Sao Paulo Mayor Erundina just voted no, and Major Olimpia (SD-SP) had a hilarious shouting speech:

174-45-3

[Simfan34]

Maluf: Si! (oh, the hypocrisy!)

[Simfan34]

As of Tiririca (the illiterate clown), who voted Sim:

197-48-3

[Simfan34]

In what order are they voting, anyway?

[Simfan34]

244-72-4 as of Benedita da Silva (first black/woman governor of Rio de Janeiro state)

[Simfan34]

In what order are they voting, anyway?

It seems by state.

Well that explains why they all seemed to be from Sao Paulo? Now they all seem to be from Rio state. But in what order are the states? It certainly isn't alphabetical. Perhaps seniority-- whatever their equivalent to admission to the Union is?

Edit: I see, Paleobrazilian. So I guess Amapa went first?

[Simfan34]

Is the a limit on how long these speeches can last?  If not I think PT should start thinking of a filibuster based strategy to drag this out, perhaps forever.

I think there is a 30-second limit. There definitely was a bell ringing after some of them spoke for a long time.