MN and CO PrimR- PPP: Santorum leading by 2 in MN, Romney by 14 in CO in 1st day

[Niemeyerite]

MN:

Santorum 29%
Romney    27%
Gingrich    22%
Paul          19%

This seems to be a 4-way tie... But as PPP says, Santorum has the momentum and Gingrich voters could go for him.

CO:

Romney    40%
Santorum 26%
Gingrich    18%
Paul          12%

If Newt keeps losing momentum, this could become a Romney-Santorum toss-up by the Election Day.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/02/romney-up-in-colorado-close-race-in-minnesota.html

[Meeker]

Santorum winning Minnesota would be exquisite.

[NHI]

Gingrich is going to be going down in my view. His vote may fraction off and make way for Santorum to be the Anti-Romney candidate through Super Tuesday and into April.

[Keystone Phil]

The Anti Romney

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

I like Santorum. He should be Romney's VP.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Tom Jensen has said for a week now that Santorum's excellent approvals (he is the most likable of the final four) make him a far more dangerous foe for Romney than Gingrich.

[Torie]

Tom Jensen has said for a week now that Santorum's excellent approvals (he is the most likable of the final four) make him a far more dangerous foe for Romney than Gingrich.

That might well be. I am thinking of winner take all NY, where a substantial percentage of registered Republicans are well, Italian American. Maybe Rick would have a chance there, if the handful of voters who bother to vote in primaries in NY defy the party machine.  But will Newt ever drop out? The longer this goes, the more crazy Newt seems to get. His presser last night was just an amazing performance. I was wondering where the straitjacket was. It needs to be kept close by at all times.

[argentarius]

How well did the polls do in 2008?

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

How is a 10% difference a 4-way tie?

[Keystone Phil]

How is a 10% difference a 4-way tie?

Now, now, Inks. Let's remember some very important similar lessons...

Romney by 8 in Iowa: VICTORY FOR MITT!

Santorum by 34 in Iowa: Let's call this a draw. Might as well flip a coin.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

How is a 10% difference a 4-way tie?

Now, now, Inks. Let's remember some very important similar lessons...

Romney by 8 in Iowa: VICTORY FOR MITT!

Santorum by 34 in Iowa: Let's call this a draw. Might as well flip a coin.

Who they heck were you watching who said, "VICTORY FOR MITT!"?  Most everybody I watched called it a draw (other than the campaigns, and do you really expect campaigns to not build up a win?)

[Keystone Phil]

How is a 10% difference a 4-way tie?

Now, now, Inks. Let's remember some very important similar lessons...

Romney by 8 in Iowa: VICTORY FOR MITT!

Santorum by 34 in Iowa: Let's call this a draw. Might as well flip a coin.

Who they heck were you watching who said, "VICTORY FOR MITT!"?  Most everybody I watched called it a draw (other than the campaigns, and do you really expect campaigns to not build up a win?)

Idiots here and...oh, you know...the Iowa GOP.

[Mr. Morden]

That might well be. I am thinking of winner take all NY, where a substantial percentage of registered Republicans are well, Italian American.

It's not WTA, like I mentioned in the other thread. 

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

How is a 10% difference a 4-way tie?

Now, now, Inks. Let's remember some very important similar lessons...

Romney by 8 in Iowa: VICTORY FOR MITT!

Santorum by 34 in Iowa: Let's call this a draw. Might as well flip a coin.

Who they heck were you watching who said, "VICTORY FOR MITT!"?  Most everybody I watched called it a draw (other than the campaigns, and do you really expect campaigns to not build up a win?)

Idiots here and...oh, you know...the Iowa GOP.

The Iowa GOP was that enthusiastic?  And are you really saying you think Santorum and Paul are virtually tied?

[Torie]

That might well be. I am thinking of winner take all NY, where a substantial percentage of registered Republicans are well, Italian American.

It's not WTA, like I mentioned in the other thread. 

Yes, thank you for pointing out that the Green Papers is not to be relied upon, and and it does make it kind of interesting, since in some NYC CD's, the handful of Pubs are probably mostly Italian or Orthodox Jew.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Database entries:

CO: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012R/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=820120204108

MN: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012R/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=2720120204108

[Keystone Phil]

The Iowa GOP was that enthusiastic?  And are you really saying you think Santorum and Paul are virtually tied?

Inks, what the hell are you saying? How am I saying Santorum and Paul are virtually tied? I'm saying when Santorum is leading, it's downplayed (as is being done here) and his firebreathing haters want to call it a tie.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

The Iowa GOP was that enthusiastic?  And are you really saying you think Santorum and Paul are virtually tied?

Inks, what the hell are you saying? How am I saying Santorum and Paul are virtually tied? I'm saying when Santorum is leading, it's downplayed (as is being done here) and his firebreathing haters want to call it a tie.

Julio is a firebreathing Santorum hater now?  That's a little much, don't you think?

[Niemeyerite]

The Iowa GOP was that enthusiastic?  And are you really saying you think Santorum and Paul are virtually tied?

Inks, what the hell are you saying? How am I saying Santorum and Paul are virtually tied? I'm saying when Santorum is leading, it's downplayed (as is being done here) and his firebreathing haters want to call it a tie.

Julio is a firebreathing Santorum hater now?  That's a little much, don't you think?

Phil: I'm not a firebreathing Santorum hater.
Inks: I said "it seems to be a 4-way tie because of the big margin of error (+/-4.8%, and they have to poll MN again tonight) and because of the volatility of the race (two weeks ago Gingrich was leading by almost 20).
But yes, it's a 3-way tie.

[Keystone Phil]

The Iowa GOP was that enthusiastic?  And are you really saying you think Santorum and Paul are virtually tied?

Inks, what the hell are you saying? How am I saying Santorum and Paul are virtually tied? I'm saying when Santorum is leading, it's downplayed (as is being done here) and his firebreathing haters want to call it a tie.

Julio is a firebreathing Santorum hater now?  That's a little much, don't you think?

A little hyperbolic, sure, but he isn't a fan and you can't deny that Santorum's better performances are downplayed here.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

The Santorum Sienna is speeding ahead of the Gingrich caboose (carried by the Cain train of course) and the Romney bandwagon.

[Niemeyerite]

The Iowa GOP was that enthusiastic?  And are you really saying you think Santorum and Paul are virtually tied?

Inks, what the hell are you saying? How am I saying Santorum and Paul are virtually tied? I'm saying when Santorum is leading, it's downplayed (as is being done here) and his firebreathing haters want to call it a tie.

Julio is a firebreathing Santorum hater now?  That's a little much, don't you think?

A little hyperbolic, sure, but he isn't a fan and you can't deny that Santorum's better performances are downplayed here.

You're airght, I'm not a fan of Santorum, but I'm not a fan of Romney, Gingrich or Paul either. So, for me it doesn't matter if Santorum or Romney carried Iowa by 'x' votes, it was a draw. And if Romney were leading Santorum 29-27 I would have called it a tie, too

[Eraserhead]

Wait, so we're actually going to have interesting races to watch on Tuesday?

PPP did do well in NV, but these polls almost seem to good to be true!

[Beet]

This poll seems to have made quite the impact today.

[argentarius]

Here's why it's a 4 way tie:

2008 Minnesota poll (University of Minnesota, only one I could find, released 5 days before):
McCain 41%
Huckabee 22%
Romney 17%
Paul 5%

Results:
Romney 41% (+24)
McCain 22% (-19)
Huckabee 20% (-2)
Paul 15% (+10)

Obviously we can't rely on Romney's and Paul's numbers so (like in Nevada), Gingrich's support is like McCain's support (which doesn't bode well for him), and Santorum's is like Huckabee's ( so he's definitely in with a shot). From this poll I can see Rick, Paul or Mitt winning, but it's really a 4-way race because of that big Gingrich poll a few weeks back. I think the most likely outcome is a sizeable win by Mitt.