MN and CO PrimR- PPP: Santorum leading by 2 in MN, Romney by 14 in CO in 1st day

[Eraserhead]

So how unenthusiastic are people about Romney?

Back in 2008, when he wasn't even the frontrunner, he got 60% (+42% over McCain) in Colorado and 41% (+19% over McCain) in Minnesota.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Here's why it's a 4 way tie:

2008 Minnesota poll (University of Minnesota, only one I could find, released 5 days before):
McCain 41%
Huckabee 22%
Romney 17%
Paul 5%

Results:
Romney 41% (+24)
McCain 22% (-19)
Huckabee 20% (-2)
Paul 15% (+10)

Obviously we can't rely on Romney's and Paul's numbers so (like in Nevada), Gingrich's support is like McCain's support (which doesn't bode well for him), and Santorum's is like Huckabee's ( so he's definitely in with a shot). From this poll I can see Rick, Paul or Mitt winning, but it's really a 4-way race because of that big Gingrich poll a few weeks back. I think the most likely outcome is a sizeable win by Mitt.

Using that poll is hardly a good analogy.  That was a poll from a relatively obscure company with a sample of 317 registered (not likely) voters and a margin of error of 6%.

[Lief 🗽]

There was a Colorado poll last time by Mason-Dixon, but it was like a week early. Still, good to compare:

Mason-Dixon
Romney 43
McCain 24
Huckabee 17
Paul 5

Actual result
Romney 60% (+17)
McCain 18% (-6)
Huckabee 13% (-4)
Paul 8% (+3)

[Mr. Morden]

PPP actually did OK with its Nevada poll this time.  (Though it underestimated Paul's support....but everyone kind of expected Paul to beat his polling #s in a caucus anyway.)

I guess it's still an open question whether their polling for subsequent caucuses will be as good.  In 2008, the turnout for caucuses after Nevada was even lower, so they were harder to poll.  I'm guessing turnout in CO and MN might be up from 2008 though, since all of the candidates are doing at least one or two campaign appearances this time, as they're not just 1 of 20 states on Super Tuesday.  But really, who knows?

[King]

Go Rick Go!

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

How is a 10% difference a 4-way tie?

Now, now, Inks. Let's remember some very important similar lessons...

Romney by 8 in Iowa: VICTORY FOR MITT!

Santorum by 34 in Iowa: Let's call this a draw. Might as well flip a coin.

Don't straw man me. I was exactly as skeptical of the so-called Mitt victory immediately after the caucus as I was of the subsequent Santorum victory afterwards. When it's down to tiny margins like that, it really is immaterial who "WON" by a handful of votes.

[Erc]

How is a 10% difference a 4-way tie?

Now, now, Inks. Let's remember some very important similar lessons...

Romney by 8 in Iowa: VICTORY FOR MITT!

Santorum by 34 in Iowa: Let's call this a draw. Might as well flip a coin.

Well, you did manage to get Matt Strawn's head, as a result of all that, so there's some consolation for you.

[Eraserhead]

Are we really not going to get any more polling? And I'm supposed to predict these races?

[jeron]

The Anti Romney

New Hampshire 9%
Florida 13%
South Carolina 17%
Nevada 10%

You are a footnote. Just. Give. Up.

[CLARENCE 2015!]

The Anti Romney

New Hampshire 9%
Florida 13%
South Carolina 17%
Nevada 10%

You are a footnote. Just. Give. Up.

The man won the Iowa Caucuses after being in 3rd or below a week before... that itself is historic

[Keystone Phil]

The Anti Romney

New Hampshire 9%
Florida 13%
South Carolina 17%
Nevada 10%

You are a footnote. Just. Give. Up.

Hahaha, I love my haters. I can just imagine the bubbling anger you and so many others feel since Santorum not only won a contest but remains a player in this game. No doubt an esteemed prognosticator like yourself predicted that Santorum would be out of the race immediately after a disastrous showing in Iowa.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The Anti Romney

New Hampshire 9%
Florida 13%
South Carolina 17%
Nevada 10%

You are a footnote. Just. Give. Up.

Hahaha, I love my haters. I can just imagine the bubbling anger you and so many others feel since Santorum not only won a contest but remains a player in this game. No doubt an esteemed prognosticator like yourself predicted that Santorum would be out of the race immediately after a disastrous showing in Iowa.

So if Paul wins Maine or somewhere is he now a major player?

[Keystone Phil]

The Anti Romney

New Hampshire 9%
Florida 13%
South Carolina 17%
Nevada 10%

You are a footnote. Just. Give. Up.

Hahaha, I love my haters. I can just imagine the bubbling anger you and so many others feel since Santorum not only won a contest but remains a player in this game. No doubt an esteemed prognosticator like yourself predicted that Santorum would be out of the race immediately after a disastrous showing in Iowa.

So if Paul wins Maine or somewhere is he now a major player?

No because he doesn't have a viable path to the nomination and you know it. Maine wouldn't set up future wins for Paul. Iowa made Santorum relevant elsewhere.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The Anti Romney

New Hampshire 9%
Florida 13%
South Carolina 17%
Nevada 10%

You are a footnote. Just. Give. Up.

Hahaha, I love my haters. I can just imagine the bubbling anger you and so many others feel since Santorum not only won a contest but remains a player in this game. No doubt an esteemed prognosticator like yourself predicted that Santorum would be out of the race immediately after a disastrous showing in Iowa.

So if Paul wins Maine or somewhere is he now a major player?

No because he doesn't have a viable path to the nomination and you know it. Maine wouldn't set up future wins for Paul. Iowa made Santorum relevant elsewhere.

Yes, he would still not have a viable path to the nomination. Neither does Santorum. (Or Gingrich at this point for that matter.)

[argentarius]

The Anti Romney

New Hampshire 9%
Florida 13%
South Carolina 17%
Nevada 10%

You are a footnote. Just. Give. Up.

Hahaha, I love my haters. I can just imagine the bubbling anger you and so many others feel since Santorum not only won a contest but remains a player in this game. No doubt an esteemed prognosticator like yourself predicted that Santorum would be out of the race immediately after a disastrous showing in Iowa.

So if Paul wins Maine or somewhere is he now a major player?

No because he doesn't have a viable path to the nomination and you know it. Maine wouldn't set up future wins for Paul. Iowa made Santorum relevant elsewhere.

So relevant that he's come third twice and fourth twice.

[Sbane]

The Anti Romney

New Hampshire 9%
Florida 13%
South Carolina 17%
Nevada 10%

You are a footnote. Just. Give. Up.

Hahaha, I love my haters. I can just imagine the bubbling anger you and so many others feel since Santorum not only won a contest but remains a player in this game. No doubt an esteemed prognosticator like yourself predicted that Santorum would be out of the race immediately after a disastrous showing in Iowa.

Have you ever considered that most people here don't feel bubbling anger that Santorum is in the race? Obviously my views are very different from Santorum's but I don't really care that he is still in the race. I suspect most people here feel the same way, with the exception of the Paul people, but I suspect that is mostly due to your behavior here.

[argentarius]

The Anti Romney

New Hampshire 9%
Florida 13%
South Carolina 17%
Nevada 10%

You are a footnote. Just. Give. Up.

Hahaha, I love my haters. I can just imagine the bubbling anger you and so many others feel since Santorum not only won a contest but remains a player in this game. No doubt an esteemed prognosticator like yourself predicted that Santorum would be out of the race immediately after a disastrous showing in Iowa.

Have you ever considered that most people here don't feel bubbling anger that Santorum is in the race? Obviously my views are very different from Santorum's but I don't really care that he is still in the race. I suspect most people here feel the same way, with the exception of the Paul people, but I suspect that is mostly due to your behavior here.

I actually like that Santorum could take down Romney, or at least make this interesting.

[Lief 🗽]

PPP is releasing new numbers tonight, Mittens possibly running third in MN

[Eraserhead]

PPP is releasing new numbers tonight, Mittens possibly running third in MN

WHATTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT

Did they mention if it looked like Gingrich or Paul would be in second?

[Keystone Phil]

The Anti Romney

New Hampshire 9%
Florida 13%
South Carolina 17%
Nevada 10%

You are a footnote. Just. Give. Up.

Hahaha, I love my haters. I can just imagine the bubbling anger you and so many others feel since Santorum not only won a contest but remains a player in this game. No doubt an esteemed prognosticator like yourself predicted that Santorum would be out of the race immediately after a disastrous showing in Iowa.

Have you ever considered that most people here don't feel bubbling anger that Santorum is in the race? Obviously my views are very different from Santorum's but I don't really care that he is still in the race. I suspect most people here feel the same way, with the exception of the Paul people, but I suspect that is mostly due to your behavior here.

Bubbling anger at being wrong about Santorum might be more accurate. They couldn't contain themselves when Santorum was an after thought. Certain people even claimed they would leave if Santorum won a contest (not thinking he'd win). When he did, they whined and gave excuses. They can't bring themselves to say they were wrong so they have to mock me for my style. That's ok though. I can walk away from this feeling proud. They'll walk away making excuses and refusing to give credit where it's due (even if they dislike Santorum and/or myself). They're called children. I feel very sorry for them.

[Keystone Phil]

PPP is releasing new numbers tonight, Mittens possibly running third in MN

You can imagine the texts I just received...

[Eraserhead]

I wonder if I should change conservative "Romney wins narrowly" prediction. It just seems too good to be true.

Imagine if he comes in fourth? This guy just can't seal the deal. It's hilarious.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Actually, a win by Paul might give him momentum to win a few other caucuses (the Dakotas, Alaska, Montana, and Washington are his best shots), and at least win delegates in some other states.

A win by Santorum might enable him to briefly emerge as the anti-Romney. My sense at this point is that if Santorum, Newt, and Paul can all stay in long enough, this thing might still go to the convention.

[Mr. Morden]

PPP is releasing new numbers tonight, Mittens possibly running third in MN

How would they already know that for a poll being conducted tonight?  Do they actually poll during the day on a weekday?

[Meeker]

PPP is releasing new numbers tonight, Mittens possibly running third in MN

How would they already know that for a poll being conducted tonight?  Do they actually poll during the day on a weekday?

I think it's based on Sunday night's numbers. The polling in the OP is from Saturday night.