Canadian by-elections, 2012

[Hatman 🍁]

We're going to need a neighbourhood map...

[lilTommy]

So were having two by-elections now... Sorbara is leaving to focus on being the campaign chair... you know the one that "bought" seats in Mississauga by forcing the government to kill a power plant.
At any rate, this should be a straight Lib-PC battle, this is pure suburbian, very Italian to boot... the federal Liberals lost Vaughan to the Tories in a by-election, before the 2011 election.
This might help the NDP, by being able to focus and concentrate resource on KW while the Tories and Liberals will have to slpit resources in two ridings.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1235179--ontario-by-election-to-be-held-in-vaughan-as-sorbara-retires

[Holmes]

Hey! I'll be able to report from the ground since I live right across the street from Vaughan.

[Hatman 🍁]

ooh Holmes must live on Steeles Ave

Well, if the Libs pick up K-W, then we can only hope the Tories win Vaughan. Not sure how likely that is. Italians havent abandoned the OLP quite yet.

[DL]

I don't rule out the PCs winning Vaughan. Let's not forget that Julian Fantino won Vaughan federally for the Tories by a huge margin and just like the PCs won Waterloo thanks to Witmer's personal popularity...a lot of the Liberal toe in Vaughan was a personal vote for Sorbara...the PCs also ran a very weak candidate in Vaughan who was controversial for having previously run for the Liberals against Fantino...and lost.

I have a hunch that whatever Liberal plan there was to win Waterloo fell through. The NDP has the strongest candidate in Catherine Fife and the Liberals are not picking a candidate until next week and the race is between three mediocrities.

[lilTommy]

So whats your thoughts Holmes?
Unless the tories can pick a star candidate ala Fantino, the liberals should have this... even if they choose a mediocre candidate (as long as their italian). Remember the OLP is not the same Liberal party as the federal cousin, its name only and there not that dead provincially as they are federally (although the last few provincial polls had the OLP what thrid?)

Anyway, DL is on the same point i made, if the Liberals have pretty much forsaken KW then they can focus on Vaughan and make a media splash by saying they won the confidence of the people blah blah. Save face. IF the NDP can win KW, the Liberals win Vaughan, then the real losers are the PCs and the Liberals will be happy enough with that.

[Holmes]

What do I think? Well it's too early to think, especially since no candidates have been nominated yet. But a PC win wouldn't surprise me at all. Still, it's a by-election, and weird things can happen, only to be "corrected" during the next election.

ooh Holmes must live on Steeles Ave

Yes, somewhat, although you could've always just looked at the map in my profile. I'm also about a 5 minute walk from Teddy too, but I'm too shy to meet him.

[Hatman 🍁]

What do I think? Well it's too early to think, especially since no candidates have been nominated yet. But a PC win wouldn't surprise me at all. Still, it's a by-election, and weird things can happen, only to be "corrected" during the next election.

ooh Holmes must live on Steeles Ave

Yes, somewhat, although you could've always just looked at the map in my profile. I'm also about a 5 minute walk from Teddy too, but I'm too shy to meet him.

Perhaps the same reason I've never met Hash.. although he lives all the way in Orleans.

But yea, I knew you lived at York U, didn't know you were on Steeles.

[Holmes]

Well, that's the same reason I didn't make plans to meet you when you came down for the convention in March, although in my defense I did have plans for that day that didn't fall through. But uh if you're ever in the GTA again please force me out of hiding. Also Teddy scares me a bit too, that might be another reason I haven't met him. Hope he doesn't read that in case we meet one day.

[Smid]

Well, that's the same reason I didn't make plans to meet you when you came down for the convention in March, although in my defense I did have plans for that day that didn't fall through. But uh if you're ever in the GTA again please force me out of hiding. Also Teddy scares me a bit too, that might be another reason I haven't met him. Hope he doesn't read that in case we meet one day.

Last year, Hugh and I went for dinner/drinks fortnightly (on my pay day). Polnut joined us one time, too (he's normally in a different city). I've only caught up with Hugh the once since he got back from overseas, though - we went for coffee a couple of weeks ago.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, that's the same reason I didn't make plans to meet you when you came down for the convention in March, although in my defense I did have plans for that day that didn't fall through. But uh if you're ever in the GTA again please force me out of hiding. Also Teddy scares me a bit too, that might be another reason I haven't met him. Hope he doesn't read that in case we meet one day.

Not meeting Teddy is probably a good idea.

[Hash]

Well, this is really off-topic, but I'm always in downtown Ottawa on weekdays if anybody, randomly, decides to visit Bytown for whatever reason.

[lilTommy]

One of those weird things to happen i hope is the NDP winning KW

I'm comfortable in my cozy DT TO hood, Trinity-Spadina keeps me busy, not as much as my old riding of T-Danforth did. Its rare i go above bloor... almost never head above Eglington; once or twice a year, with a shirpa, i head to Yorkdale. 

I would ahve loved to meet y'all but i never made it to convention, since i'm no longer a youth by a long shot the budget wasn't there. I have Hatman on Facebook since thats where i chill.

God i miss Ottawa, i have most of my family there so.

I still go and take a look over at BluntObjects (i think thats teddys work) its good to know thy enemy right?

[Hatman 🍁]

BO (They didn't think that one through, did they?) is in fact Teddy's Blog... or at least it's shared with another guy who runs it. It's a pretty good site, actually. (credit where credit is due).

Tommy, if you come to Ottawa, we should do a mini-Atlas meet up.

[adma]

I don't rule out the PCs winning Vaughan. Let's not forget that Julian Fantino won Vaughan federally for the Tories by a huge margin and just like the PCs won Waterloo thanks to Witmer's personal popularity...a lot of the Liberal toe in Vaughan was a personal vote for Sorbara...the PCs also ran a very weak candidate in Vaughan who was controversial for having previously run for the Liberals against Fantino...and lost.

Then again, one might also argue that Julian Fantino had "unfair advantage" in 2011 through his byelected incumbency, versus the hapless Iggy Liberals who were at that point concentrating more upon salvaging whatever 416/905 incumbents it could.  If it were Fantino vs an incumbent Bevilacqua, the race would have been a lot closer.

But then again, the "no standing Liberal incumbent" situation there may foretell a "no standing Liberal incumbent" situation here...

[trebor204]

 called in Manitoba for the riding of Fort Whyte on Sept 4th.

Riding was left vacated by former PC leader Hugh McFadyen. Brandy Schmidt is the NDP candidate. Newly elected PC leader Brian Pallister will be seeking the  PC nomination

[MaxQue]

called in Manitoba for the riding of Fort Whyte on Sept 4th.

Riding was left vacated by former PC leader Hugh McFadyen. Brandy Schmidt is the NDP candidate. Newly elected PC leader Brian Pallister will be seeking the  PC nomination

Brian Palliser, the former federal MP?

[trebor204]

Yep,


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brian_Pallister

[lilTommy]

Looks like Forum did a poll in Vaughan... the breakdown might chance with Candidates, but this is going to be a dog fight.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1237959--poll-vaughan-byelection-up-for-grabs

41% PC, 40% OLP, 15% NDP (we were never in that game anyway)

---

I read about the Manitoba by-election... so the PCs elected a Filmon era cabinet minister; the very same Filmon gov't that the current NDP demonizes every chance they get and esp. at every election (might not say it in name, but its almost always aluded to). So why not shot yourself in the foot while your down eh
But Fort Whyte probably won't be much of a fight... the ridings been PC since it was created in 99; it has the 2nd highest income in the province, rather ethnically diverse though at 21%. But the new leader is running here and the PCs got over 60% in 11. If the Liberals put their act together they might be competative, they were in 03 and a 05 by-election.

[DL]

Its worth noting that last October the NDP took only 11% in Vaughan - so even 15% is a decent showing in what is normally a total dead zone for them.

[adma]

And *federally*, they did only 11.6% last year.

Interestingly enough, the ONDP gor 11.7% in Vaughan in 2007 vs 18.7% for the PCs--perhaps dead-cat-bouncey with the help of an Italian candidate vs a parachute-y South Asian (?) PCer...

[lilTommy]

Hey 11% is nothing to shy at, doesn't mean your in contention though ... and trust me, my first election working for the NDP we were excited to break 2000 votes!

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1238711--mcguinty-calls-byelections-for-vaughan-and-kitchener-waterloo

Its official, the by-elections are set for Sept 6th... if anyone thinks that date is familiar, look what happened on Sept 6th...

http://www.cbc.ca/archives/categories/politics/provincial-territorial-politics/ontario-elections-25-tumultuous-years/astonishing-victory-for-the-ndp.html

[Hatman 🍁]

A lot happening that week. :/

[Holmes]

Unfair that Vaughan has a smaller campaign length, but then again, it's likely to fall out of Liberal hands, so less exposure to the PCs in Vaughan is better for McGuinty.

[MaxQue]

Hey 11% is nothing to shy at, doesn't mean your in contention though ... and trust me, my first election working for the NDP we were excited to break 2000 votes!

12 years ago in Quebec, 1% for NDP in Quebec was great.