Canadian by-elections, 2012

[adma]

Well, a strong second would be very good in Durham and Calgary Centre. They don't need to win.
And I'm sure than NDP hopes there is no election in Etobicoke.

"No chance" is one thing; hoping there is no election is another.  And I doubt the NDP is so easily ego-bruised that they'd hope for no Etobicoke Centre byelection...

[DL]

I can think of a few reasons why the NDP would probably just as soon see the Supreme Court quash the lower court judgement and for there to be no Etobicoke Centre byelection.

1. If there is a byelection, the Liberals would be heavily favoured to win if only because byelections tend to go against the party in power and the tory win in that seat was seen as a bit of an unexpected fluke last year. The last thing the NDP needs is for the Liberal party to get any oxygen or momentum as a result of picking up a seat in a byelection.

2. If the court upholds the lower court ruling - it will actually help the Conservatives in the long-run and hurt the NDP in the long-run since it will set a precedent for a very high bar in terms of voter ID on election day etc... just the kind of "vote suppression" that the GOP is pushing for the in the US. If the courts rule that everyone needs photo ID and documentation to vote - it will dissuade younger, poorer, more transient people from voting.

[canadian1]

I can think of a few reasons why the NDP would probably just as soon see the Supreme Court quash the lower court judgement and for there to be no Etobicoke Centre byelection.

1. If there is a byelection, the Liberals would be heavily favoured to win if only because byelections tend to go against the party in power and the tory win in that seat was seen as a bit of an unexpected fluke last year. The last thing the NDP needs is for the Liberal party to get any oxygen or momentum as a result of picking up a seat in a byelection.

2. If the court upholds the lower court ruling - it will actually help the Conservatives in the long-run and hurt the NDP in the long-run since it will set a precedent for a very high bar in terms of voter ID on election day etc... just the kind of "vote suppression" that the GOP is pushing for the in the US. If the courts rule that everyone needs photo ID and documentation to vote - it will dissuade younger, poorer, more transient people from voting.

Photo ID isn't at issue. What's at issue is the documentation that's already required in the Elections Act--specifically, proof of citizenship. But I agree that the lower court ruling set too high a bar; it will probably be impossible to meet in the future.

I also agree that the NDP would lose political capital in an Etobicoke Centre by-election.

[RogueBeaver]

Joan Crockett is the next MP for Calgary Centre.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/story/2012/08/25/calgary-centre-conservative-nomination-byelection.html

[adma]

I also agree that the NDP would lose political capital in an Etobicoke Centre by-election.

That is, if they had that much political capital there to begin with.

But AFAIC, the fright-of-Liberal-oxygen thing is a petty throwback to bad old ways, and it really belongs more to the extreme liquidate-the-Liberals wing of the NDP (or, for that matter, the more traditional liquidate-the-NDP wing of the Grits).  As I see it, at worst they'd lose as much capital here as the Conservatives did in the Toronto-Danforth byelection--and of course, if a Etobicoke Centre byelection was bunched with several others where the NDP has a greater chance of, at least, overtaking the Liberals, the net "lost political capital" could be more negligible than some are fearing...

[canadian1]

I also agree that the NDP would lose political capital in an Etobicoke Centre by-election.

That is, if they had that much political capital there to begin with.

But AFAIC, the fright-of-Liberal-oxygen thing is a petty throwback to bad old ways, and it really belongs more to the extreme liquidate-the-Liberals wing of the NDP (or, for that matter, the more traditional liquidate-the-NDP wing of the Grits).  As I see it, at worst they'd lose as much capital here as the Conservatives did in the Toronto-Danforth byelection--and of course, if a Etobicoke Centre byelection was bunched with several others where the NDP has a greater chance of, at least, overtaking the Liberals, the net "lost political capital" could be more negligible than some are fearing...

But as far as I can see, the "liquidate the Liberals" wing has taken the reins of the party. In the absence of a merger, which I don't see happening for some years, what other mantra could the party leadership adopt?

Everything I've seen from Mulcair suggests he's quite keen on taking power at some point.

[MaxQue]

I also agree that the NDP would lose political capital in an Etobicoke Centre by-election.

That is, if they had that much political capital there to begin with.

But AFAIC, the fright-of-Liberal-oxygen thing is a petty throwback to bad old ways, and it really belongs more to the extreme liquidate-the-Liberals wing of the NDP (or, for that matter, the more traditional liquidate-the-NDP wing of the Grits).  As I see it, at worst they'd lose as much capital here as the Conservatives did in the Toronto-Danforth byelection--and of course, if a Etobicoke Centre byelection was bunched with several others where the NDP has a greater chance of, at least, overtaking the Liberals, the net "lost political capital" could be more negligible than some are fearing...

But as far as I can see, the "liquidate the Liberals" wing has taken the reins of the party. In the absence of a merger, which I don't see happening for some years, what other mantra could the party leadership adopt?

Everything I've seen from Mulcair suggests he's quite keen on taking power at some point.

Which party doesn't want power?

[canadian1]

I also agree that the NDP would lose political capital in an Etobicoke Centre by-election.

That is, if they had that much political capital there to begin with.

But AFAIC, the fright-of-Liberal-oxygen thing is a petty throwback to bad old ways, and it really belongs more to the extreme liquidate-the-Liberals wing of the NDP (or, for that matter, the more traditional liquidate-the-NDP wing of the Grits).  As I see it, at worst they'd lose as much capital here as the Conservatives did in the Toronto-Danforth byelection--and of course, if a Etobicoke Centre byelection was bunched with several others where the NDP has a greater chance of, at least, overtaking the Liberals, the net "lost political capital" could be more negligible than some are fearing...

But as far as I can see, the "liquidate the Liberals" wing has taken the reins of the party. In the absence of a merger, which I don't see happening for some years, what other mantra could the party leadership adopt?

Everything I've seen from Mulcair suggests he's quite keen on taking power at some point.

Which party doesn't want power?

Exactly--that's why I think the NDP must be pursuing a "liquidate-the-Liberals" strategy. It's their best shot at taking power.

[adma]

Exactly--that's why I think the NDP must be pursuing a "liquidate-the-Liberals" strategy. It's their best shot at taking power.

Except that that sounds a little too much like the Liberals' "liquidate the NDP" strategy of yore.  And it's a little beneath whatever Jack-Layton-farewell-letter principles.

My feeling is: yes, ideally, the NDP (or at least, the party's organizational braintrust) would like to usurp whatever they can of "Lib-left" support--but on their own terms and with a dab of swayable "Con-populist" and mushy-middle support as reinforcement (let's not forget that even a lot of recent Harper voters have been mushy-middle) and by picking their battles carefully and by minimizing embarrassment and injured egos.  So when it comes to Etobicoke Centre, what matters is not that they win; what matters is that they're "still standing" even in the event of a Liberal victory in a seat where, as everybody admits, the odds run heavily against the NDP.  The old "moral victory" thing, I suppose--long an NDP punchline, but actually a good, constructive way to handle loss, treating an election more as a litmus of real-and-potential support than as a raw you-win-or-you-lose proposition.  And it's not unlike what's led the *Conservatives* to power, deconstructing opportunities in apparent no-hope seats, etc.

As I see it, the NDP can absorb an Etobicoke Centre loss...at least as long as they hold close to their 2011 share; and even if not, they might absorb a loss in the same way that Labour in the UK has absorbed being relegated to a depositless third in strict Tory-Lib Dem races.  And of course, it helps if there are several byelections happening at once--now, if an "inevitable " poor third in EC is accompanied by either-or-a-combination-of a reversion to third place in Durham, falling even further back of the Liberals in Calgary Centre, and (the clincher) losing or even nearly-losing Victoria--*then*, cue the alarm bells.

Such a loss-absorption strategy is already in place in Ontario, where an "inevitable" poor third in the upcoming Vaughan byelection looks set to be counterbalanced by the ONDP significantly overachieving in the Kitchener-Waterloo byelection.

[canadian1]

Exactly--that's why I think the NDP must be pursuing a "liquidate-the-Liberals" strategy. It's their best shot at taking power.

Except that that sounds a little too much like the Liberals' "liquidate the NDP" strategy of yore.  And it's a little beneath whatever Jack-Layton-farewell-letter principles.

My feeling is: yes, ideally, the NDP (or at least, the party's organizational braintrust) would like to usurp whatever they can of "Lib-left" support--but on their own terms and with a dab of swayable "Con-populist" and mushy-middle support as reinforcement (let's not forget that even a lot of recent Harper voters have been mushy-middle) and by picking their battles carefully and by minimizing embarrassment and injured egos.  So when it comes to Etobicoke Centre, what matters is not that they win; what matters is that they're "still standing" even in the event of a Liberal victory in a seat where, as everybody admits, the odds run heavily against the NDP.  The old "moral victory" thing, I suppose--long an NDP punchline, but actually a good, constructive way to handle loss, treating an election more as a litmus of real-and-potential support than as a raw you-win-or-you-lose proposition.  And it's not unlike what's led the *Conservatives* to power, deconstructing opportunities in apparent no-hope seats, etc.

As I see it, the NDP can absorb an Etobicoke Centre loss...at least as long as they hold close to their 2011 share; and even if not, they might absorb a loss in the same way that Labour in the UK has absorbed being relegated to a depositless third in strict Tory-Lib Dem races.  And of course, it helps if there are several byelections happening at once--now, if an "inevitable " poor third in EC is accompanied by either-or-a-combination-of a reversion to third place in Durham, falling even further back of the Liberals in Calgary Centre, and (the clincher) losing or even nearly-losing Victoria--*then*, cue the alarm bells.

Such a loss-absorption strategy is already in place in Ontario, where an "inevitable" poor third in the upcoming Vaughan byelection looks set to be counterbalanced by the ONDP significantly overachieving in the Kitchener-Waterloo byelection.

Thorough and insightful as always!

[Hatman 🍁]

Vaughan 2011 provincial map:



(Also, introducing my new master key which I used on this map)

[Smid]

(Also, introducing my new master key which I used on this map)

Me likey.

EDIT: Sorry to be looking a gift horse in the mouth, but any chance you might knock together some orange and green tones as well? Maybe a purple and a yellow, too?

[mileslunn]

I think Victoria is pretty safe for the NDP.  The Liberals could theoretically win, but unlikely as in the 90s they had a majority while the NDP was struggling to maintain official party status.  With the NDP now in opposition and Liberals in 3rd, I think it is pretty safe for the NDP.  I expect the Conservatives to take Durham and Calgary Centre.  The main threshold will be do they get over 50% or not.  If they get less than 50% that will be a rebuke.  I think the NDP could have a strong second in Durham, however I think the Liberals would be more likely to win Calgary Centre than the NDP, as an urban riding it is hardly a right wing stronghold, but a business centre with many from the oil business I have a tough believing it would go NDP anytime soon.  In terms of Etobicoke Centre, I agree an NDP win is unlikely.  It is true based on polls the Liberals would probably win it, I am not so sure the Tories wouldn't hold it as they have tended to do better in by-elections than general elections, never mind voter turnout is lower in by-elections than general elections and those on the right are generally more motivated to show up as well as the Tories are strongest amongst those who always show up.

[Hatman 🍁]

(Also, introducing my new master key which I used on this map)

Me likey.

EDIT: Sorry to be looking a gift horse in the mouth, but any chance you might knock together some orange and green tones as well? Maybe a purple and a yellow, too?

No purple or yellow, sorry. Will have to wait for a municipal election for that. I know the mayor of Calgary used purple in his election.

[Smid]

(Also, introducing my new master key which I used on this map)

Me likey.

EDIT: Sorry to be looking a gift horse in the mouth, but any chance you might knock together some orange and green tones as well? Maybe a purple and a yellow, too?

No purple or yellow, sorry. Will have to wait for a municipal election for that. I know the mayor of Calgary used purple in his election.

You are brilliant! Thank you!

[Hatman 🍁]

A gal from Elections Manitoba sent me a poll map of Fort Whyte, so expect a map of that as well. (Canadian Election Atlas exclusive!)

[adma]

Vaughan 2011 provincial map:



(Also, introducing my new master key which I used on this map)

I wouldn' t mind such Ontario '11 maps with keyed-in poll numbers (no, I don't mean from *you*; just generally, as a convenience)

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's Kitchener-Waterloo:



Next is Fort Whyte

[2952-0-0]

Speaking of Kitchener Waterloo, it's impossible to listen to more than ten minutes of radio without an ad from either the Liberals (OMG TEH TORIES OUT TO KILL OUR TEACHERS!1!!), NDP (OMG BOTH TEH PARTIES IDENTICAL!!1!), or PCs (OMG TEH LIBS DROWNING UR KIDS IN DEBT!!1!1).

[Hatman 🍁]

Speaking of Kitchener Waterloo, it's impossible to listen to more than ten minutes of radio without an ad from either the Liberals (OMG TEH TORIES OUT TO KILL OUR TEACHERS!1!!), NDP (OMG BOTH TEH PARTIES IDENTICAL!!1!), or PCs (OMG TEH LIBS DROWNING UR KIDS IN DEBT!!1!1).

This is a big stakes by-election.

Should we be expecting record by-election turnout? Maybe 40... dare I say 50%?

[DL]

Speaking of Kitchener Waterloo, it's impossible to listen to more than ten minutes of radio without an ad from either the Liberals (OMG TEH TORIES OUT TO KILL OUR TEACHERS!1!!), NDP (OMG BOTH TEH PARTIES IDENTICAL!!1!), or PCs (OMG TEH LIBS DROWNING UR KIDS IN DEBT!!1!1).

Are the Liberals actually running ads saying that the Tories are out to kill "our teachers" Right now the teachers are all up in arms that its the Liberals who are hitting them with a two by four! There are literally bus loads of teachers going to Waterloo to help the NDP because they all hate Mcguinty so much now.

[2952-0-0]

Speaking of Kitchener Waterloo, it's impossible to listen to more than ten minutes of radio without an ad from either the Liberals (OMG TEH TORIES OUT TO KILL OUR TEACHERS!1!!), NDP (OMG BOTH TEH PARTIES IDENTICAL!!1!), or PCs (OMG TEH LIBS DROWNING UR KIDS IN DEBT!!1!1).

Are the Liberals actually running ads saying that the Tories are out to kill "our teachers" Right now the teachers are all up in arms that its the Liberals who are hitting them with a two by four! There are literally bus loads of teachers going to Waterloo to help the NDP because they all hate Mcguinty so much now.

The Liberals have been making subtle reminders of Mike Harris and reminding voters they can somehow defend public services and...do something...about the deficit.

But I've also heard a radio ad by a teachers union, asking you if you like kids, and therefore do you want Ontario to continue having the best school system in the English-speaking world, and therefore don't you think hurting teachers is against that.

[canadian1]

Speaking of Kitchener Waterloo, it's impossible to listen to more than ten minutes of radio without an ad from either the Liberals (OMG TEH TORIES OUT TO KILL OUR TEACHERS!1!!), NDP (OMG BOTH TEH PARTIES IDENTICAL!!1!), or PCs (OMG TEH LIBS DROWNING UR KIDS IN DEBT!!1!1).

Are the Liberals actually running ads saying that the Tories are out to kill "our teachers" Right now the teachers are all up in arms that its the Liberals who are hitting them with a two by four! There are literally bus loads of teachers going to Waterloo to help the NDP because they all hate Mcguinty so much now.

The Liberals couldn't have been more generous to teachers for 9 straight years. I have yet to hear a convincing argument why teachers (or anyone else) should be able to bank sick days.

[adma]

Something tells me this "war on teachers" biz is playing right into NDP hands in K-W--and the only reason why it's not registering with the Libs + Tories is the old "aah, look at the 2011 results: the NDP can't win" fallback...

[canadian1]

Something tells me this "war on teachers" biz is playing right into NDP hands in K-W--and the only reason why it's not registering with the Libs + Tories is the old "aah, look at the 2011 results: the NDP can't win" fallback...

That riding poll from some time ago ought to have set them straight--it had the NDP a close second.