Canadian by-elections, 2012

[Hatman 🍁]

Poll by poll results of the Fall by-elections have been posted (a few days ago) on the Elections Canada site: http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=rep/off/ovr_2012b&document=index&lang=e

Krago has sent me some maps, I will post them later.

Excellent! Really looking forward to seeing those, particularly the Calgary and Victoria ones.

Victoria is quite.... bizarre. As to be expected in an NDP vs Green race, I guess.

[Smid]

Poll by poll results of the Fall by-elections have been posted (a few days ago) on the Elections Canada site: http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=rep/off/ovr_2012b&document=index&lang=e

Krago has sent me some maps, I will post them later.

Excellent! Really looking forward to seeing those, particularly the Calgary and Victoria ones.

Victoria is quite.... bizarre. As to be expected in an NDP vs Green race, I guess.

Yeah, the relative closeness of those two is the reason I am interested in them. So no real discernable patterns in Victoria, just randomness?

[Hatman 🍁]

Poll by poll results of the Fall by-elections have been posted (a few days ago) on the Elections Canada site: http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=rep/off/ovr_2012b&document=index&lang=e

Krago has sent me some maps, I will post them later.

Excellent! Really looking forward to seeing those, particularly the Calgary and Victoria ones.

Victoria is quite.... bizarre. As to be expected in an NDP vs Green race, I guess.

Yeah, the relative closeness of those two is the reason I am interested in them. So no real discernable patterns in Victoria, just randomness?

There's always patterns. If I were more knowledgeable about the city, I could have more to say. Obviously the Oak Bay area is more wealthy and therefore more right wing, but neither the Greens nor the NDP did well there (well, the Greens won Oak Bay, I think, but had lower margins than in the areas they won in Victoria).

Basically, the wealthy areas were 3 way races between the Greens, Liberals and Tories while the less wealthy areas were 2 way races between the NDP and Greens. But beyond that, I'm not knowledgeable enough to discern any patterns.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's Victoria. I'll upload the others later.



Compare to 2011:

[Hatman 🍁]

Due to mass vote splitting, the NDP actually won some polls that they had lost last time, probably with a much lower share of the vote.

[Smid]

Due to mass vote splitting, the NDP actually won some polls that they had lost last time, probably with a much lower share of the vote.

I assume due to vote splitting, I also see a poll won by the Tories, which they didn't win in 2011 (on the water, immediately West of the Parliament).

[Linus Van Pelt]

This is obviously just very speculative guessing, but I wonder whether the reason the city is so un-polarized is that the Green vote skews both younger and more educated/upper-middle-class, which cancel each other out geographically. Meaning: in the more affluent professional areas on the south shore and the east by Oak Bay, the Liberal and Tory vote swung Green but there is a base of older public-sector/academic NDP voters, while in the cheaper areas inland and northwest towards Esquimalt the less well-off long-term residents vote NDP but the Greens won the students and other young renters.

[adma]

Not unlike the fed-prov results in Ontario at the height of the "NDP-Green" split in the late '00's (esp. in campus towns like Guelph, Waterloo, Kingston, etc)

[Hatman 🍁]

I'll make a median age map of Victoria to see if there's any trends...

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's a median age map



If anything, the younger areas were more likely to vote NDP.

[Хahar 🤔]

Peter Penashue has resigned and will contest the Labrador by-election.

[Smid]

Good to see he's doing the right thing, even though it was a campaign volunteer, and not himself, who did the wrong thing.

[lilTommy]

Good to see he's doing the right thing, even though it was a campaign volunteer, and not himself, who did the wrong thing.

I HIGHLY doubt this was an "error" made by a volunteer (who happens to be well respected and experienced, CBC politics just debunk that).
He did wrong, took freebies and corporate donations... finally stepped up though cause he had to, legally.

Was a dogfight between the Liberals and the Tories last time; i'm going with three-way fight (due to the high level of support for the NDP in NFLD).

[RogueBeaver]

PNP reporting that there are more donations TBR. CPC saying he's paid the Receiver-General 30k.

[Hatman 🍁]

Wrong thread guys, this is for the 2012 by-elections.