Canadian by-elections, 2012

[Hatman 🍁]

Mulcair does not have the power to "swoop in and appoint" anyone in Oshawa and even though the bulk of NDP members in Oshawa may be with the CAW doesn't mean that the candidate has to be an old fashioned union leader. Back in 1968 all those auto workers in Oshawa chose as their federal candidate a political philosophy professor from York University with a passion for John Stewart Mill. His name was Ed Broadbent!

What are the chances of that happening again?

[lilTommy]

Thats what i was thinking, is that in order to truely look to win we have to get out of our comfort zone (as Dippers).
Does anyone know if say someone on Oshawa council, or Durham regional gov who is a dipper who could run? (Nester Pidwerbecki is the one i looked up and found, hes on oshawa council or Larry O'Connor who is Mayor of Brock, frm regional councillor and former MPP in Durham) ... or someone like Jim Standford, an economist with the CAW but not seen as a typical CAW union pres.
 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If there's much in the way of a swing from the Tories to the NDP next time round, then you'd win Oshawa anyway, probably. Even with a standard awful candidate, maybe even with the Irish prick (though that's obviously not worth the risk).

[DL]

Keep in mind that redistribution could also have a big impact on Oshawa. Ontario gains 15 seats and there is a lot of growth in Durham region. The NDP tends to do well in the older "downtown" parts of Oshawa and less well in the more outlying suburban areas. Its quite possible that a new riding will be created east of Toronto and that the current riding of Oshawa may shrink in size and give up some of the more Tory-leaning territory.

[lilTommy]

Keep in mind that redistribution could also have a big impact on Oshawa. Ontario gains 15 seats and there is a lot of growth in Durham region. The NDP tends to do well in the older "downtown" parts of Oshawa and less well in the more outlying suburban areas. Its quite possible that a new riding will be created east of Toronto and that the current riding of Oshawa may shrink in size and give up some of the more Tory-leaning territory.

Bingo! and in that case mr firebrand irishman could win a newer, smaller Oshawa (would we want him to?) think Pat Matin x10 and 10x leftier

There is no question, the GTA will be the biggest winner (Peel, Halton, York, Durham will see the most changes, some could be drastic if they decide to roll that way)...

A friend has  a blog (who doesn't) and has a write-up about Durham:
http://kaylehatt.ca/6-reasons-why-a-durham-by-election-might-not-be-a-conservative-sure-thing/

[canadian1]

Even if the riding boundaries were changed, Sid Ryan would be a poor choice of candidate for Oshawa. Even in the "downtown", there has been so much gentrification that his heavily rhetorical style of politics is liable to seem outdated. I do think that there is a difference in the amount of populism Ontarians like to see in federal vs. provincial politics: Ryan may still be a viable candidate provincially, as he was in 2007.

[adma]

Except that we're not talking about Sid Ryan-or-whomever per se.  We're talking about present-day (that is, 2012, not 2011) Harper vs Mulcair--which may be enough to override any tired-union-hack stigma...

[DL]

I suspect that Sid Ryan will be steering clear of federal politics for the next while anyways. He said some very nasty things about Mulcair in the NDP leadership race and the fact that Ryan is such an anti-Israel fanatic would probably make him persona non grata with the Mulcair team.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I think the NDP's support in the core areas of Oshawa have been overstated by some of the posters here (just by eyeballing the data, it appears they lost by a sizeable margin in a hypothetical core seat). It's not the early 90s and even with the "orange crush", they were only able to increase support in most polls by 1-3%. That doesn't bode well for the next election. I think the clearest example of the continued erosion of NDP support was shown in the provincial election.  They achieved a swing that was less than the provincial swing even while they ran on a platform that was basically tailored for Oshawa.

If NDP wins the next election, they'll most likely pick it up but I have the feeling it will be by a thread. Mulcair isn't veering from the Layton coalition and, if anything, is moving the party even further in a direction that appeals more to centrist/vaguely "green" urban voters. 

Quick question for Canadian posters: do you think that the NDP needs the Liberals to stay at their current levels of support to win a solid majority in the next election? Also, do you think it's possible for the NDP to appeal successfully to middle class Asians in the 905?

[Holmes]

Well, I think it's possible for them to appeal to the 905, but the Cons and Liberals are more appealing at first glance? If they can't win them, they need to Liberals to eat at Conservative support there to keep both parties seat totals at a minimum in the region - maybe even pick up a few.

[DL]

Well, I think it's possible for them to appeal to the 905, but the Cons and Liberals are more appealing at first glance? If they can't win them, they need to Liberals to eat at Conservative support there to keep both parties seat totals at a minimum in the region - maybe even pick up a few.

A lot of people who vote Liberal in "905" only do so because the Liberals have historically been the only party that could compete with the Tories. Many if not most Liberal voters in 905 would drop the Liberals like a hot potato for the NDP if they saw the NDP as having a shot at winning. We got a taste of that phenomenon when the ONDP won Bramalea-Gore-Malton

[adma]

I think the NDP's support in the core areas of Oshawa have been overstated by some of the posters here (just by eyeballing the data, it appears they lost by a sizeable margin in a hypothetical core seat). It's not the early 90s and even with the "orange crush", they were only able to increase support in most polls by 1-3%. That doesn't bode well for the next election. I think the clearest example of the continued erosion of NDP support was shown in the provincial election.  They achieved a swing that was less than the provincial swing even while they ran on a platform that was basically tailored for Oshawa.

It's not necessarily that dire--and besides, that "only" 1-3%-increased-support was by default of the NDP already having competitive strength here, i.e. they were already in a 2011-esque position in 2008, 2006, 2004.  The bigger NDP jumps in support were dead-cat-bounces in neighbouring ridings where the party was hitherto a writeoff.

If anything's being overstated here, it's the forever-uniform nature of the Conservative vote--but then again, it's also worth observing that against the Laytonmania grain, there was a rather noticeable NDP-to-Tory swing in a lot of the hitherto most heavily blue-collar NDP-leaning polls in places like Hamilton and Windsor; and of a sort that's not merely explainable through Liberal collapse--it's almost as if the NDP had already maxed out in those polls and the Tories repatriated a lot of "Reagan Democrat" apparently-NDP-populist types who once might've supported Reform.  Perhaps a bit of that was in effect in Oshawa as well.

But that was 2011.  This is 2012.  What may be hurting the Tories now is "majority hubris"; and Bev Oda's an A-1 emblem of that--and, look at it this way, if in this Durham byelection, the Cons are significantly below 50% and the NDP significantly above 30% (heck, just plain being above 30% might as well be "significant"), that'd probably foretell an NDP victory in Oshawa proper...

[Hatman 🍁]

Reagan New Democrat? lol

[DL]

In Toronto I call them "Ford New Democrats" - people who voted for Rob Ford for mayor and then turned around and voted NDP federally.

[Hatman 🍁]

In Toronto I call them "Ford New Democrats" - people who voted for Rob Ford for mayor and then turned around and voted NDP federally.

Yes, I've been thinking about this recently. There must be quite a few of those people, especially in places like Scarborough. I would think a lot of them are immigrants, no?

I can't wrap my head around the logic of voting both NDP and for Rob Ford. Well, I can't wrap my head around voting for Rob Ford in the first place. I dont know how someone to the right of the federal Tories could become mayor of that city.

[mileslunn]

In Toronto I call them "Ford New Democrats" - people who voted for Rob Ford for mayor and then turned around and voted NDP federally.

Yes, I've been thinking about this recently. There must be quite a few of those people, especially in places like Scarborough. I would think a lot of them are immigrants, no?

I can't wrap my head around the logic of voting both NDP and for Rob Ford. Well, I can't wrap my head around voting for Rob Ford in the first place. I dont know how someone to the right of the federal Tories could become mayor of that city.

It does seem a bit strange, although I remember hearing many in the immigrant community voted for Ford because Smitherman was Gay and a lot in the immigrant community are economically left of centre but socially conservative.  It may not make a lot of sense, but it is the best explanation I have.  The other possibility is some are just angry at the way things are so whomever is the most anti status quo gets their vote regardless of ideology.

[DL]

Of course if you were an NDP voting immigrant who objected to Smitherman for being gay, it begs the question why not Joe Pantalone? He is str8 was backed by Miller and Layton etc...

[Hatman 🍁]

After I posted that, I realized it was the gay issue. Still kind of weird considering the NDP's stance on gays. The 2010 Toronto election was almost the same as the 2006 Ottawa election where a bumbling right wing buffoon got elected over a more competent, but gay candidate. (of course our gay candidate was so much better than Smitherman). And I hate to say it, but Rob Ford is slightly more competent than our mayor was. However, Ford is more right wing. 

[adma]

And I hate to say it, but Rob Ford is slightly more competent than our mayor was. However, Ford is more right wing. 

*More* competent?  Didn't realize O'Brien was *that* bad--either that, or you haven't been at the heart of the Toronto scene.

But there's also something of a difference btw/the Toronto and Oshawa situations--that is, Oshawa isn't that immigrant-y or non-white-y, it really is closer to the old-school "Reform" demographic.  Indeed, remember that Layton's more marked 2011 gains tended to be in ethnoburbia (witness Scarborough, BGM, etc); while, as I've indicated, the NDP didn't gain all that much or even fell back on behalf of the Tories in their traditional Broadbentian lunchbucket-labour union zones.

And another thing about Oshawa is that unlike other blue-collar NDP nodes like Hamilton and WIndsor, it does not have much of a base of Copps/Munro/Herb Gray "Lib-Lab" strength; Ivan Grose won here in the Chretien era largely upon coattails, and versus a Reform/Alliance base that saw this as one of their more competitive Ontario prospects.  Other than the Grose interregnum, this is that ultimate Ontario odd-duck: historically, a true Con-NDP marginal--or if not that, if one were to extend today's dismissiveness t/w the NDP to the past, Broadbent was as much of a fluke as Grose was.  And to go crudely by Chretien-era "united right" tallies, the Conservatives ought to have scored this by more than a 3-way margin fluke in '04--but it's pretty much explained by the Cons having gained this at all in '04 that Colin Carrie has warded off all wouldbe NDP competition since.  And a lot of the reasoning here is as "external" (i.e. safety with Harper) as it was with Grose (i.e. safety with Chretien).  In a seat where regardless of NDP positioning, the Tories have traditionally had an upper hand over the Liberals--the Tories benefit.  (It also explains why Jerry Ouellette has held tight provincially: once they nab the ring in a weak-Liberal circumstance, they hold tight.)

But now, w/the unprecedented situation of the NDP in Official Opposition (and actually proving its mettle there), the circumstances have changed.  Which is why NDP prospects in *Durham* are deemed worth discussion, never mind Oshawa...

[Hatman 🍁]

And I hate to say it, but Rob Ford is slightly more competent than our mayor was. However, Ford is more right wing. 

*More* competent?  Didn't realize O'Brien was *that* bad--either that, or you haven't been at the heart of the Toronto scene.

Maybe not, but I couldn't imagine anyone more incompetent than O'Brien. He was a lot like George W. Bush. And boy, when Bush came to down, you should have seen how giddy OBrien was. He was like a hero to him.

[adma]

Maybe not, but I couldn't imagine anyone more incompetent than O'Brien. He was a lot like George W. Bush. And boy, when Bush came to down, you should have seen how giddy OBrien was. He was like a hero to him.

If you're just using a Dubyah barometer of incompetence: believe you me, Rob Ford's worse (though it'd more likely be his brother Doug who'd have that O'Brien giddiness).

I'll spare you the details--but once you Google up and consider Rob Ford's gaffes-on-record, O'Brien practically comes across Mel Lastmanish by comparison...

[adma]

Incidentally, I've divided Durham's 2011 e-day results into geographic sectors, with these quick-and-possibly-mildly-inaccurate results...

uxbridge rural--: Con 2149 (58.75), Lib 692 (18.92), NDP 533 (14.57), GP 253 (6.92), Ltn 19 (.52), CHP 12 (.33)
uxbridge urban--:  Con 2456 (53.39), Lib 1036 (22.52), NDP 738 (16.04), GP 342 (7.43), CHP 19 (.41), Ltn 9 (.20)
scugog w rural--  Con 1411 (58.35), Lib 434 (17.95), NDP 390 (16.13), GP 158 (6.53), CHP 17 (.70). Ltn 8 (.33)
pt perry--  Con 1896 (53.64), Lib 750 (21.22), NDP 652 (18.44), GP 206 (5.83), CHP 22 (.62), Ltn 9 (.25)
scugog e rural--  Con 1691 (57.17), NDP 633 (21.40), Lib 404 (13.66), GP 204 (6.90), CHP 21 (.71), Ltn 5 (.17)
darlington rural--  Con 2183 (58.23), NDP 775 (20.67), Lib 537 (14.32), GP 189 (5.04), CHP 52 (1.39), Ltn 13 (.35)
courtice--  Con 4436 (52.35), NDP 2280 (26.91), Lib 1293 (15.26), GP 386 (4.56), CHP 52 (.61), Ltn 27 (.32)
bowmanville--  Con 6560 (51.85), NDP 3454 (27.30), Lib 1897 (14.99), GP 589 (4.66), CHP 114 (.90), Ltn 39 (.31)
clarke rural--  Con 2369 (56.16), NDP 868 (20.58), Lib 677 (16.05), GP 215 (5.10), CHP 70 (1.66), Ltn 19 (.45)
newcastle--  Con 1464 (50.87), NDP 731 (25.40), Lib 506 (17.58), GP 147 (5.11), CHP 18 (.63), Ltn 12 (.42)

[Holmes]

No, I was there when Ford was elected, I don't think it was so much of a gay issue than it was just the fact that outer-Toronto was trending conservative at the time - just like, in 2011, quite a few ridings in Etobicoke, North York, and Scarborough went Conservative. Downtown, the old city, voted en masse for Smitherman (and NDP/Lib federally in 2011). That trend seemingly has reversed, perhaps? Hard to say if it has, or if it's just backlash against Ford (and Harper, to an extent). The reversal happened pretty fast, if it did happen, because by October the city was more than ready to embrace the Liberals as the PC's only valid opposition in provincial parliament.

[adma]

No, I was there when Ford was elected, I don't think it was so much of a gay issue than it was just the fact that outer-Toronto was trending conservative at the time - just like, in 2011, quite a few ridings in Etobicoke, North York, and Scarborough went Conservative.

Well, if one were to paint all Toryism with a common brush.  Look, if Dubyah-keister-kissing is all you can point to as evidence of O'Brien being "worse" than Ford (or maybe more properly, the double-headed monster that is Rob + Doug Ford), you haven't comprehended the fullness of Ford-style ineptitude.  (Indeed, that's been the problem with a lot of Ford's critics over time: that they've offered overly softball generic right-of-centre evil/buffoonery/thuggery comparisons--O'Brien, Mel Lastman, Dubyah, Boris Johnson, Mike Harris, etc...)

[Hatman 🍁]

No, I was there when Ford was elected, I don't think it was so much of a gay issue than it was just the fact that outer-Toronto was trending conservative at the time - just like, in 2011, quite a few ridings in Etobicoke, North York, and Scarborough went Conservative.

Well, if one were to paint all Toryism with a common brush.  Look, if Dubyah-keister-kissing is all you can point to as evidence of O'Brien being "worse" than Ford (or maybe more properly, the double-headed monster that is Rob + Doug Ford), you haven't comprehended the fullness of Ford-style ineptitude.  (Indeed, that's been the problem with a lot of Ford's critics over time: that they've offered overly softball generic right-of-centre evil/buffoonery/thuggery comparisons--O'Brien, Mel Lastman, Dubyah, Boris Johnson, Mike Harris, etc...)

Note to Adma: Holmes and I are different people. (I have a light green avatar now ) But, there was more than just Dubya kiester kissing, there were huge gaffes as well. And of course the whole scandal that made him temporarily vacate the office to stand trial. AFAIK Ford hasn't had that happen yet.