Maybe I'm missing something here, but wouldn't a Liberal victory in the by-election be completely irrelevant?
The Speaker is a Liberal, and he's bound by the same rules as the Speaker of the House of Commons, correct? (e.g., he has no vote except to break a tie, and even when breaking a tie is obligated to vote against amendments and final passages)
So even if the Grits gain a seat, the new breakdown would be 54-36-17, but in terms of votes it'd only be 53 for the government and 53 for the opposition, with the tie-breaking vote going to a Speaker who votes down everything, so the Liberals would still need to be getting outside support to get things passed.
Is this not correct? I'll admit I'm making some assumptions here; I'm not entirely sure the Speaker's casting vote works like that in Ontario, especially since they do get to keep their label and everything.
I'm requoting this because it seems to have been ignored. Because Ontario's non-voting speaker is a Liberal, the NDP and PC's currently outnumber the Liberals by a single vote. A government victory in the by-election would only give them half of the votes, with the Speaker breaking ties. Is the Ontario Speaker not bound by casting-vote precedents as in other Westminster-style systems?
Presuming the Liberals do win the by-election, can the Speaker resign his office in the middle of the session to allow his party to elect someone from the opposition so they can have a true majority?
