Canadian by-elections, 2012

[MaxQue]

(if there is already a thread on that, please merge)

By-election in Toronto-Danforth called for March 12.

[MaxQue]

So, they failed to find a star candidate?

[MaxQue]

Being an old MP form the 80's isn't being an asset, I suppose.

[MaxQue]

Four candidates filled their papers now. NDP, Green and two indies.

Leslie Bory, from Boston, in Norfolk County (west of Niagara), who ran in the 2010 by-election in Vaughan (whch Fantino won) getting .28% and in Brant in 2011 (.3%). He is running agaist free trade, for tarrifs, for a Republic, against participating in "US wars", to reduce pesticides, herbicides and to ban factory farming.

Bahman Yazdanfar: Well, let's see his website: http://www.votersecho.com/

[MaxQue]

One can see why Tories weren't quick to call the election. Being tied with Greens isn't good.

So, 17/196

Craig Scott (NDP): 1162 votes (58.7%)
Grant Gordon (LPC): 573 votes (29.0%)
Andrew Keyes (CPC): 102 votes (5.2%)
Adriana Mugnatto-Hamu (GPC): 94 votes (4.8%)

[MaxQue]

So, 55/196

Craig Scott (NDP): 4095 votes (58.5%)
Grant Gordon (LPC): 2067 votes (29.5%)
Andrew Keyes (CPC): 394 votes (5.3%)
Adriana Mugnatto-Hamu (GPC): 317 votes (4.5%)

[MaxQue]

So, 82/196

Craig Scott (NDP): 6313 votes (57.9%)
Grant Gordon (LPC): 3256 votes (29.9%)
Andrew Keyes (CPC): 568 votes (5.2%)
Adriana Mugnatto-Hamu (GPC): 531 votes (4.9%)

[MaxQue]

So, 115/196

Craig Scott (NDP): 9178 votes (59.2%)
Grant Gordon (LPC): 4480 votes (28.9%)
Andrew Keyes (CPC): 803 votes (5.2%)
Adriana Mugnatto-Hamu (GPC): 744 votes (4.8%)

[MaxQue]

So, 162/196

Craig Scott (NDP): 15470 votes (59.8%)
Grant Gordon (LPC): 7379 votes (28.5%)
Andrew Keyes (CPC): 1328 votes (5.1%)
Adriana Mugnatto-Hamu (GPC): 1217 votes (4.7%)

[MaxQue]

Another resignation.

David Whissell, MNA for Argenteuil since 1998, resigned today, officially to do other things. Opposition parties are saying than it is probably to escape the ethics rules beginning on January 1st. He is an owner of a big paving company. He prefered resigning as Labour Minister than to sell it, a few years ago.

Last time it didn't elected a Liberal was 1962. Another riding with a significant Anglophone minority. It is also the riding of the Green leader.

Results since Whissell is elected (according to quebecpolitique website):

June 1998 by-election
Liberals: 57%
PQ: 38%
ADQ: 5%

November 1998
Liberals: 42%
PQ: 42%
ADQ: 13%
Others: Bloc Pot (marijuana) 1.2%, Ind 0.7%, Natural Law 0.3%, PDS (the remainers of the NDP-Quebec) 0.3%
Finally, Whissell is relected by 148 votes.

April 2003
Liberals: 53%
PQ: 25%
ADQ: 18%
Greens: 2.1%
Bloc Pot: 1.2% (yes, again)

March 2007
Liberals: 38%
ADQ: 30%
PQ: 26%
Greens: 4.7%
QS: 2.3%

December 2008
Liberals: 50%
PQ: 33%
ADQ: 11%
Greens: 3.5%
QS: 2.1%

Here is Argenteuil.



Diverse and complicated riding.

Many Anglos rural small villages, even if some are less and less Anglo (Gore Township, Wentworth-Nord), in the lower Rouge Valley and along Ottawa River.

Some villages which isn't really in Argenteuil area, which are more in the Laurentians, with the Highway 15 as the big axis and are more French (Saint-Adolphe-d'Howard, Montcalm), including a very rich Liberal ski and spa resort, despite being Francophone (Morin Heights).

A regional center (Lachute) which is more and more exurban.

Mille-Isles and Saint-Colomban, which are very very near of the city of Saint-Jérome which has a commuter rail (train de banlieue) leading directly in Montreal downtown. So, Saint-Colomban, formely a rural village, is now a booming exurb.
Talking of Saint-Colomban, the ADQ was second in half the precincts of the "parish" (which is a legal status for little villages). Liberals being third, in those, with pretty awful result in some precincts (the worst by 13%).

Grey precincts are Lib-PQ ties.

Quoted from another thread, because it was called for June 11, as the by-election in LaFontaine, to replace Tony Tomassi, a Liberal MNA which was expelled from the party (and of Family Ministry) after media learned a business (BCIA) gave him a credit card. He didn't came into the Assembly since then and he was under inquiry for absenteism.

This post is probably long enough, so, the candidates and the LaFontaine preview will go in a future post.

[MaxQue]

Candidates in Argenteuil.
Liberal: Lise Proulx, former president of the Argenteuil Hospital Foundation, former press attachée of the MNA when he was Labour minister, former communication director of the Argenteuil Health and Social Services Centre (CSSS), currently information agent at the Argenteuil CSSS.

PQ: Roland Richer, former elementary school director, defeated candidate for PQ investiture for the 1998 by-election.

CAQ: Mario Laframboise, BQ MP for Argenteuil-Papineau-Mirabel from 2000 to 2011 (defeated by NDP), former mayor of Notre-Dame-de-la-Paix, former prefect of Papineau MRC.

Greens: Claude Sabourin, Green leader since 2010, teacher, author, Green candidate in Argenteuil in 2003 (2.1%), 2007 (4.7%) and 2008 (3.5%) and federal Green candidate in Argenteuil-Papineau-Mirabel in 2004 (5.1%) and 2006 (4.6%)

QS: Yan Zanetti, voluntary fireman and guy who fixes and builds houses, living in Wentworth.

Conservative: Jean Lecavalier, former teacher, former president of the ADQ-Argenteuil, ADQ candidate in 2007 in Nelligan (western Montreal,), former municipal councillor in L'Île-Bizard (western Montreal). Wierd party, as they apparently compare themselves to National Union.
It fits with the 3 priorities of the candidate: Reopen Mirabel Airport, better ambulatory care in Argenteuil and asking government money to fix a municipal pool, all right-wing ideas...

[MaxQue]

Reopening a useless airport and infrastructure spending are right-wing ideas?

No. It was irony and a a prolongation of their comparaison with the National Union, which was more patronage than ideology.

[MaxQue]

Finally. Will we get to see some maps of LaFontaine as well?

BTW, LaFontaine is basically the Montreal suburb of Riviere-des-Prairies. The riding should be named that.

Yes, even if it will be boring and perhaps not before Victoria Day, unless you write my 20-page final lab report.

Earl, well, you know than the Quebec commission loves to name ridings about people.

[MaxQue]

I think than Rogue knows than Bourassa is for Henri.

True than he forgot René-Lévesque, Duplessis, Taschereau, Johnson, Gouin and Jean-Lesage.

And Mount Royal isn't about the mount (which is in Outremont, not in Westmount--Ville-Marie!), but about the Town of Mount Royal (often called TMR in English).

[MaxQue]

I would argue than all of the Mount Royal Park and the cemetaries in the Outremont riding (not in Outremont borough, through).

Anyways, Mount Royal has three summits. Someone has a topological map to clear that issue?

Bouchard represented Jonquière, not Lac-Saint-Jean.

EDIT: Two of the three summits, including the biggest one which is ALWAYS referred as the Mount Royal, unlike the two others, are in Outremont riding (between the university and the cemetaries, in fact).

[MaxQue]

If Union Montreal is smart, they would dump Tremblay and run Coderre.
2009 was quite close and you can't expect the vote of his opponents to split almost 50-50 like the last time.

[MaxQue]

To end the paranthesis on municipal elections, who is right?
You must be domiciliated in Quebec since 6 months or You must be domiciliated in the city since 6 months?

[MaxQue]

I agree, but I reserve the right of changing my mind in case there is a significant change in the political situation.

[MaxQue]

Well, there is a Tommy Douglas neighbourhood and a Douglas Road, but they are also named about Tommy Douglas.

[MaxQue]

So, LaFontaine, named about Louis-Hippolyte La Fontaine, co-prime minister of Province of Canada in the 19th century and one of the father of responsible government in Canada.

LaFontaine is a riding in Eastern Montreal, more exactly the western half of the Rivière-des-Prairies—Pointe-aux-Trembles borough, which means than it covers the former city of Rivière-des-Prairies.

That district doesn’t have much special areas, except many buildings lot and a new controversial toll bridge linking it to Laval, which shorten the Laval-North Shore/Eastern Montreal trip and a jail. The eastern half of the riding is empty, so new neighborhoods are being built there, with similar houses, like in suburban areas. There is many condos in the western half, especially near the St. Lawrence, however, some are in a bad state.

For demographical data, there is a wonderful document called Socioeconomical Files (but in French only). Here’s the link for LaFontaine: http://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/documents/pdf/dossier-socio-economique/2006/lafontaine.pdf

So, that riding has three main demographics, which all favours the Liberals. First of all, immigrants, especially Italians. The mother tongue of the inhabitants is English for 9.3% of them, French for 43.2% of them and 47.5% have another first language, mainly Italian, but Creole and Spanish is common, too. When the language talked at home is asked, 52.7% are saying French, 26.1% are saying English and 21.1% are saying another language, in the same pattern observed for mother tongue. Finally, 32% of the population of LaFontaine is immigrants. As immigrants are one of the more Liberal-voting populations, it’s good for them.

However, even it’s an immigrant area, it’s not poor. The average annual income is 3,000$ higher than the national mean and the average median income is 6,000$ above the provincial one. 15.5% of the population has an income over 100.000$, which is in line with presence of condos and suburban developments, but also poorer parts of the riding which have older housing. People with a higher income are more likely to vote Liberal.

Politically, it’s described as a safe Liberal riding, but it wasn’t always like that. It was one of the 7 ridings which elected a PQ MNA in 1970 and one of the six in 1973, but then the riding included Pointe-aux-Trembles and Montréal-Est, which are more independantist and then, at each redistricting, it lost parts of Montréal-Est and Pointe-aux-Trembles, making it more and more Liberal. PQ finally lost in 1985 and never came close of regaining it.
 
Since 2003, its MNA was Tony Tomassi, son of Donato Tomassi, main shareholder of Genco, one of the biggest construction businesses in Quebec and big Liberal donator. In 2008, he was named Family Minister. He got into spotlight when, in early 2010, opposition accused the government of attributing the 7-dollar childcare places to projects proposed by liberal donators (that program is than it is child care for 7$/day, government is paying the balance. Since there are only a limited number of places, the places are attributed to specific child care centers).

During that scandal, it was discovered than he used a credit card given by a security company, BCIA (now bankrupt), owned by Luigi Coretti, in exchange of him convincing the Public Surety minister to give him a special weapon permit, which is downright illegal. So, on May 6, 2010, he resigned as minister and left the Liberal caucus. He didn’t came to the Assembly since then. Since then, he is prosecuted for fraud against the government and confidence abuse. He finally resigned on May 3th, after a CAQ MNA deposed a complaint to the Ethics Commissioner about his absenteeism.



So, as the situation is presented, only the candidates and the past results are missing. As of now, there are 3 candidates.

Liberals: Marc Tanguay. They wanted to run Pablo Rodriguez, Liberal MP of Honoré-Mercier from 2004 to 2011 (lost to NDP), but he declined. Marc Tanguay is the President of Quebec Liberal Party, since 2009. He is also a lawyer (at a cabinet called Delegatus). He also was Innovation Director at GE Capital. His nomination is apparently not well received by the Italian population, as he doesn’t know the area at all, as he lives in a South Shore suburb/exurb. He ran in Chambly in 2007 (south shore), then a bellweather, to replace a retiring one-term incumbent, but finished 3rd (24%), the winner being the ADQ candidate Richard Merlini.

CAQ: Domenico Cavaliere. Another lawyer, who lives in LaFontaine this time. He also was a commercialization analyst for a distillery. First time he runs for something, apparently.

QS: Julien Demers, which has no bio existing online but ran three times in Deux-Montagnes (north shore suburb), for UFP in 2003 (4th, 1.3%), QS in 2007 (5th, 2.2%) and 2008 (5th, 2.3%). He finished behind Greens because the Green leader was running there, then.



Finally, the past results since 1994.¸
September 1994
Liberals: 56%
PQ: 35%
ADQ: 8%
Others: Innovative: 0.9% (single issue, for an universal retirement system), Natural Law 0.9%, 

November 1998
Liberals: 58%
PQ: 30%
ADQ: 11%
Others: Innovative: 0.4%, PDS (the remainers of the NDP-Quebec) 0.4%

April 2003 (redistricting finally removed all of Pointe-aux-Trembles)
Liberals: 70%
PQ: 19%
ADQ: 10%
Bloc Pot : 1.2% (marijuana)

March 2007
Liberals: 62%
ADQ: 18%
PQ: 14%
Greens: 2.9%
QS: 2.1%

December 2008
Liberals: 70%
PQ: 19%
ADQ: 6.5%
Greens: 2.7%
QS: 1.9%

[MaxQue]

And the map:



The weak Liberal area in the west is a big cluster of retirement houses along Gouin Blvd (they vote Liberal, but less than Italians).

The east of riding is the new area of Pointe-aux-Prairies, near the park of the same name and in the municipal ward of the same name, halfway between Rivière-des-Prairies and Pointe-aux-Trembles, more suburban. The name was found by a kid in a competition in the local elementary schools, to mix the name of the two areas. Politically, it's a mix, too, being a swing area at all levels.

Best Liberal result is 97%.

[MaxQue]

Oh, God.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/349847/les-politiciens-ont-peur-de-leur-ombre

Donato Tomassi, father of Toni, gave an interview to Le Devoir, were he said perturbing things.

He says than inquiries are focused on them because they are italians and than is racism.
He says than they are rejected even if they have talent, guts and charisma like his son (?).
He says than he treated Jean Charest like a king and than it is unfair to treat like bad after he did that.
And he is saying than we want to "transfrom Quebec in a monastry, where we can't help our friends. What are the purpose of having friends if we can't help them?"

He seems to see patronage and corruption as normal. Creepy.

[MaxQue]

Another resignation in Quebec!

Line Beauchamp, Education Minister, Vice-PM, MNA for Sauvé from 1998 to 2003, MNA for Bourassa-Sauvé since 2003.

She resigns over "failure to solve the student crisis". I think more than she was disagreeing with Charest line on it or than government decided to throw her under the bus.

Also, another Vice-PM to resign in the year. Also the 4th high-profile minister to resign (not counting Béchard who resigned 3 days before his death).

[MaxQue]

Charest has the same Catherine wheel effect on his senior ministers that late-term Thatcher did on hers. Bellemare, Couillard, Mulcair, MGT, Normandeau... now Beauchamp.

Séguin, Dupuis...

EDIT: And we forgot the obvious one, Mulcair.

[MaxQue]

Interesting that Beauchamp and Coderre share the same territory.

Well, Coderre's riding is equivalent to Tomassi and Beauchamp ones.