Canadian by-elections, 2012

[Holmes]

Deflating, or preemptively halting, any Liberal momentum would benefit the Tories in Ontario more than an NDP defeat would, I believe, as blue Liberals seem to have been coming home in the past few months, and the NDP is still seen as a nonfactor in Ontario at the moment. Still, I'm sure an NDP defeat there would be good for the Tories too.

[Holmes]

I'd say mid to high 40's is a safe bet.

[Holmes]

Craig Scott - 61%
Grant Gordon - 19%
Andrew Keyes - 14%
Green - 4%
Other - 2%

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1131505--poll-ndp-will-win-toronto-danforth-byelection-by-wide-margin?bn=1

[Holmes]

Who's the Liberal candidate again?

[Holmes]

I'm so excited, it's been almost half a year, but finally another Canadian election. And with the leadership convention this weekend, the end of March seems to be great for Canadian politics. Here's my prediction:

Scott - 58%
Gordon - 22%
Keyes - 14%
Mugnatto-Hamu - 4%

[Holmes]

I kind of wish this by-election were somewhere other than downtown Toronto, only to see how the Tories would have fared. I don't think much can be extrapolated from their showing in a riding such as Toronto-Danforth. Buuut, going from 14% to 5% is pretty pathetic. Their ridings in the city would probably be gone if there were an election now.

[Holmes]

Oh boy. Elizabeth Witmer, PC MPP for Kitchener-Waterloo, is resigning. Libs only need one more seat for that delicious majority.

While the seat is vacant, McGuinty technically doesn't need support from the other parties to pass legislation, right? Think he's going to keep the NDP concessions?

[Holmes]

We're talking about Dalton McGuinty, right?

[Holmes]

Keep dreaming.

[Holmes]

I'm hoping for a PC hold as well.

[Holmes]

I should've posted this earlier, but here is the poll by poll map for the entire province: http://www.globalnews.ca/pages/topicNew.aspx?id=6442556629

Gosh. My poll almost went PC.

[Holmes]

Mine was 41%. That's depressing. I'm upset now.

[Holmes]

Is there a reason for the NDP surge in Ontario and nationally lately? Mulcair bump?

Many things. Nationally, Mulcair helps, definitely. The Tories have also been pretty incompetent lately (unpopular budget, lying about F-35's, trust issues) and the NDP is now seen as the alternative, not the Liberals. Mulcair has a pretty good team and there has not been any gaffes (yet?).

Ontario's different. Sure, the NDP is in second place (provincially and federally), but who knows where that support is coming from? It might just be that the party is consolidating their support in ridings that they won last year? The Tories would still probably win 60+ ridings in the province even if the numbers are 37 Con - 31 NDP.

[Holmes]

He's not doing seat projections until the new boundaries are out, apparently.

[Holmes]

The candidates haven't even been nominated. Cool your jets.

[Holmes]

It would be an interesting by-election, I believe. I don't think the Conservatives have much of a chance, but neither do the NDP. Still.

[Holmes]

Why?

[Holmes]

Yes, a Liberal victory in Etobicoke Center will breathe new life into the Liberal Party of Canada, giving them new hope and momentum to win all other ridings that are similar in demographics. Because those are the ridings that party sure needs to win to regain relevance.

[Holmes]

Why bother? Mulcair's comments about the oil sands aren't doing the NDP any favours in Alberta. To be honest, I'm a bit concerned about Duncan.

[Holmes]

Well, okay. Still not expecting a result lower than 50% for the Tories.

[Holmes]

Well, you know, except it affects many other Canadians, and not just Canadians either, especially since they wanna run pipelines all over the damn place. But we can't criticize Alberta. Ever. It's sacrilege.

[Holmes]

... it's a Conservative suburban district in New Brunswick. Why were you all cheering for an NDP win?

[Holmes]

It's a respectable showing. The only problem is that it was the leader running, so the numbers were inflated a tad.

[Holmes]

The NDP needs a good candidate here. With no chance of winning in Calgary-Centre or coming in second place in Etobicoke-Centre, there is a good chance of a respectable showing in Durham. Probably not a win, but a good showing might help momentum.

[Holmes]

Well, I think it's possible for them to appeal to the 905, but the Cons and Liberals are more appealing at first glance? If they can't win them, they need to Liberals to eat at Conservative support there to keep both parties seat totals at a minimum in the region - maybe even pick up a few.