Canadian by-elections, 2012

[mileslunn]

I doubt Kitchener-Waterloo will go NDP as they generally get below the provincial average here, although I could see the Liberals picking up as if you look at the federal results the Liberals usually were above the provincial average while the Conservatives slightly below, although they did win it last federal election but they won the majority of seats in Ontario.  Elizabeth Witmer largely held the riding due to personal popularity.  That being said because the riding will determine whether McGuinty gets his majority or not, a lot of people will vote differently than they would in a general election.  Otherwise the question will be does McGuinty deserve a majority or not.  On the one hand some will want stability in this period, thus vote Liberal for that reason, but others feel they need to be kept on a tight leash.

[mileslunn]

Maybe I'm missing something here, but wouldn't a Liberal victory in the by-election be completely irrelevant?

The Speaker is a Liberal, and he's bound by the same rules as the Speaker of the House of Commons, correct? (e.g., he has no vote except to break a tie, and even when breaking a tie is obligated to vote against amendments and final passages)

So even if the Grits gain a seat, the new breakdown would be 54-36-17, but in terms of votes it'd only be 53 for the government and 53 for the opposition, with the tie-breaking vote going to a Speaker who votes down everything, so the Liberals would still need to be getting outside support to get things passed.

Is this not correct? I'll admit I'm making some assumptions here; I'm not entirely sure the Speaker's casting vote works like that in Ontario, especially since they do get to keep their label and everything.

I'm requoting this because it seems to have been ignored. Because Ontario's non-voting speaker is a Liberal, the NDP and PC's currently outnumber the Liberals by a single vote. A government victory in the by-election would only give them half of the votes, with the Speaker breaking ties. Is the Ontario Speaker not bound by casting-vote precedents as in other Westminster-style systems?

Presuming the Liberals do win the by-election, can the Speaker resign his office in the middle of the session to allow his party to elect someone from the opposition so they can have a true majority?   

The tradition is regardless of party the speaker always votes whichever way will keep debate going.  That is a longtime parliamentary tradition dating back over 400 years.  He would vote with the Liberals in this case, but so would the same thing happen with an NDP or PC speaker as voting against the government would cause it to fall, thus not maintaining debate.  Off course this is just a tradition not a requirement, but generally most speakers do.  In fact in Britain the speaker will usually run as an independent unlike in Canada where the tradition comes from.

[mileslunn]

Yes, although you'd think Madawaska-Restigouche would also go NDP, but it's rather Tory friendly (just look at the area provincially)

Actually it depends on how the riding is divided in the new one.  I should note Madawaska County despite being heavily Francophone is fairly Conservative, but Restigouche County was almost a perfect three way split so the NDP did do quite well there.  Restigouche County is also a coastal one with a lot of seasonal workers thus they would lean more left whereas Madawaska County is an inland one so more agriculture, forestry, as well as a fair number of small business owners.  In any small town you have certain necessities (grocery store, restaurant, gas station, hotel etc.) so the percentage who are business owners tends to be higher than in urban areas.  Generally speaking those who own businesses tend to lean to the right.  Yes rural areas are often poorer but most small business owners don't tend to make a lot of money, however the lower taxes are and the less regulation they have the better for them.  As for EI, I agree this could hurt them in Atlantic Canada much like it did the Liberals in 1997, but I suspect the Tories will be more cautious after all having almost no seats east of the Ottawa River makes winning a majority pretty much next to impossible even with the new seats in Ontario and the West.

[mileslunn]

Godin's popularity in his riding helps drive up the province-wide NDP vote, but let's not forget that the NDP candidate also took 32% in Sain John in federal election and therte was also a near win in Moncton in a tight three way race.

I think the riding would be a lot more competitive without Godin, but it is quite possible the NDP would have held it in 2011.  That being said I am pretty sure it would have gone Liberal in 2000, 2004, 2006, and 2008 without him.  As for the province without him, it was 47% Conservative, 24% NDP, 24% Liberal, mind you even without him I am pretty sure this would have been one of the Tory's weaker ridings thus they might have gotten 45 or 46% instead of the 44% they got, while the NDP still would gotten in the upper 20s and Liberals low 20s.  Nonetheless the gap would be wider.

[mileslunn]

It may not be a solidy Tory as other Calgary ridings, but I think it would be a huge shocker if the Tories didn't hold this.  I think the real issue is can they stay above 50% as if they fall below 50% there that could suggest problems.  And as others mentioned the Liberals have a much better chance than the NDP, although I would say the odds of either winning are pretty close to zero.  While this includes Calgary-Buffalo which is more left leaning it also includes most of Calgary-Elbow which is Ralph Klein's former riding so the southern parts tend to go pretty heavily conservative like much of the rest of the city.  If anything, the best line of attack would be more the Tories don't welcome Red Tories as Lee Richardson was one of the few Red Tories much like Alison Redford who he is planning on working with.  I have also found Calgary to be very pro-business and many rightly or wrongly (depending on where you stand on the political spectrum) believe socialist parties lead to more stagnant growth.  Many remember the 90s when large numbers from British Columbia and further back when large numbers from Saskatchewan were moving there thus why I think the NDP frightens people so much here.

[mileslunn]

I think the real problem here is in Eastern Canada attacking Alberta oil sands and its wealth is effective at least amongst those who lean left, thus that is why parties on the left consistently perform poorly in Alberta as attacking it may cost them a seat or two but could result in a whole whack of seats in Eastern Canada.  Unfortunately no party seems to believe in the idea of promoting prosperity in every province and hurting one province hurts everyone.  I think unlike other countries Canada's population is mostly spread out along a 5,000 mile narrow strip near the US border so regional divisions are more noticeable than in other countries that are smaller or have higher population densities.  That being said, I think Edmonton East is probably the NDP's best chance at picking up in Alberta.  Although Edmonton Centre is far from a Tory stronghold, they have a lot of yuppies who are wealthy yet progressive thus why they go Liberal and getting them to switch will be tough.  This group is strong in St. Paul's, Vancouver Centre, and Toronto Centre thus why those ridings stayed Liberal. 

[mileslunn]

I think if the NDP talked about trying to use the wealth generated from oil for other opportunities in the future, that might work a bit better in Alberta, after all the strong economy based on oil cannot last indefinitely, so there is a good reason to try and build up other areas.  I think what people resent in Alberta is transferring their money to other parts of the country as a re-distribution scheme to punish the wealthy provinces and give to the poorer ones.  Many rightly or wrongly argue Alberta is prosperous due to its pro free market policies and they shouldn't have to pay for provinces that take a more socialist approach.

I also as a general rule think it is best to try and win at least one seat in every province even though I agree Alberta will be a weak spot for the NDP much the way Quebec is for the Tories.  I should note in the last 30 years, most governments won at least one seat in all or nearly all provinces.  The only times they didn't were (1988 in PEI, 1997 in Nova Scotia, 2006 in PEI, and 2008 in Newfoundland & Labrador).  PEI is a relatively small province and the votes evenly distributed so that is probably the least concern for a winning party while 1997 was due to poor distribution as the Liberals got almost as many votes as the NDP and PCs did but were evenly spread out, not concentrated like the PCs in Mainland Rural Nova Scotia and NDP in Halifax and Cape Breton Island.  In 2008, that was a backlash over the equalization changes when Danny Williams ran his ABC campaign.

[mileslunn]

A special treat I've been working on:

Probably explains why the Liberals came in second but didn't win any polls unlike the NDP.  The NDP is strongest near the city centre which is the least conservative part of the riding, otherwise the area in Calgary-Buffalo whereas the areas the Liberals came in second tend to be the more conservative parts of the riding anyways.  If Joe Clark's old riding boundaries were used for Calgary Centre the Tories might only get a plurality as the Bow River straddled the centre, not the edge so it encompassed the whole central area not just the southern half (otherwise both Calgary-Buffalo and Calgary-Mountainview).

[mileslunn]

In Toronto I call them "Ford New Democrats" - people who voted for Rob Ford for mayor and then turned around and voted NDP federally.

Yes, I've been thinking about this recently. There must be quite a few of those people, especially in places like Scarborough. I would think a lot of them are immigrants, no?

I can't wrap my head around the logic of voting both NDP and for Rob Ford. Well, I can't wrap my head around voting for Rob Ford in the first place. I dont know how someone to the right of the federal Tories could become mayor of that city.

It does seem a bit strange, although I remember hearing many in the immigrant community voted for Ford because Smitherman was Gay and a lot in the immigrant community are economically left of centre but socially conservative.  It may not make a lot of sense, but it is the best explanation I have.  The other possibility is some are just angry at the way things are so whomever is the most anti status quo gets their vote regardless of ideology.

[mileslunn]

I think an NDP win is a longshot here simply because in the past they haven't gotten over 25% in a long time.  Even in the last federal election they scored below the provincial average although I do wonder how many of the Liberal votes were from university staff and students who voted strategically as like many university ridings, it appears the Liberals held their vote better than elsewhere.  I agree without Witmer the Tories would have had a much tougher time winning this riding and in fact probably would have not won it in the past three elections, however with the Liberals provincially doing poorly, they may still hang on, especially if there is a strong three way split.  I think the Liberals would have had a better chance in a general election than by-election as one of the questions asked will be does McGuinty deserve a majority and some who want the Liberals to win, but only with a minority would vote Liberal in a general election but not by-election at least not when one considers this will give him a majority.

[mileslunn]

I should also note the NDP didn't do very well in Kitchener Centre either.  Cambridge is really the only area in the metro K-W area where they have a strong base.  While Telegdi no doubt helped, I should note that in both suburban Ottawa and Toronto you had several ridings without incumbents where the Liberals came in second.  Also it seems in most university area ridings the Liberals did quite well like Guelph, Kingston & the Islands (which lacked an incumbent), London North Centre, Kitchener-Waterloo and even in Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale, the Liberals were quite strong around McMaster University, they just did horrible everywhere else in the riding.  My understanding is Kitchener-Waterloo has above average income as well as more educated than most ridings and that is the demographic the Liberals are usually strongest amongst, otherwise too educated to vote Tory, but too wealthy to vote NDP.

[mileslunn]

I think Victoria is pretty safe for the NDP.  The Liberals could theoretically win, but unlikely as in the 90s they had a majority while the NDP was struggling to maintain official party status.  With the NDP now in opposition and Liberals in 3rd, I think it is pretty safe for the NDP.  I expect the Conservatives to take Durham and Calgary Centre.  The main threshold will be do they get over 50% or not.  If they get less than 50% that will be a rebuke.  I think the NDP could have a strong second in Durham, however I think the Liberals would be more likely to win Calgary Centre than the NDP, as an urban riding it is hardly a right wing stronghold, but a business centre with many from the oil business I have a tough believing it would go NDP anytime soon.  In terms of Etobicoke Centre, I agree an NDP win is unlikely.  It is true based on polls the Liberals would probably win it, I am not so sure the Tories wouldn't hold it as they have tended to do better in by-elections than general elections, never mind voter turnout is lower in by-elections than general elections and those on the right are generally more motivated to show up as well as the Tories are strongest amongst those who always show up.

[mileslunn]

Forum was the closest on the Ontario election and they were pretty much spot on for the recent provincial by-elections.  I agree I would be shocked if the Tories lost Calgary Centre nonetheless I think they are more likely to lose there than Durham although I doubt they will lose in either.  Central Calgary is not a left wing riding, but its pretty centrist; its not as conservative as some might think.  If it were a battle between the Democrats and the Republicans, the Democrats would win hands down and likewise between the PCs and Reform Party I think it would go PC.  Also some of it may be local candidate as before the nomination the Tories had a massive lead, but there was a lot of controversy as I believe Joan Crockett is not well liked by local Tories and she also hails from the WRA side, not the provincial PCs so some provincial PCs I've heard are supporting the Liberals so this maybe more a local candidate thing.  Think of it like Indiana and Missouri for the senate races.  Romney easily won both states, but their GOP candidates who were unpopular with the establishment and too extreme lost. 

[mileslunn]

The Liberals + PCs however exceeded the Reform Party in 1993 and 1997.  Never mind as someone with family from Alberta I kind of understand this area.  Many of the over 50 crowd still hate the Liberals for the National Energy Program and even if they are more centrist will not vote Liberal for that reason, whereas amongst the under 40 crowd, many don't remember this thus don't vote conservative as religiously as their parents.  Calgary maybe the most Conservative city in Canada but it is not nearly as right wing as some think.  Also the Alberta PCs are a very powerful political machine and if their supporters help the Liberals this could make the difference.  Lets remember there is still a lot of bad blood with the WRA so the fact Joan Crockett is a WRA supporter no doubt probably motivates many PC supporters to volunteer for the Liberals.  I think if it was a general election it would go Conservative and barring any major scandal I think the Conservatives will easily win it in 2015 but since electing a Liberal or Green wouldn't affect the overall house standings; the Tories still have a majority, it becomes more about which candidate they like better.  I still think the Tories are the frontrunners but I don't think it is as safe as some think.

[mileslunn]

lol nice. Would rather the Tories win CC than the Libs. If it were AV my vote would be 1) NDP 2) Greens 3) Tories 4) Liberals

Why did you put the Grits 4th?

Can't have the Liberals winning Calgary Centre

After the comments of David McGuinty and now some comments brought up from a two year old tape with Justin Trudeau, it will be interesting to see what happens.  I suspect the Tory internal polls have them worried so they are going to dig up every anti-Alberta comment from the Liberals to make sure it doesn't happen.  I would also argue a Tory loss in Durham would be just as big a deal as Tory support there in the past few elections hasn't been that much different than Calgary Centre.  Lets remember this is usually amongst their top 20 best seats in Ontario so if they lose there that signifies big trouble.  Nonetheless I see no evidence to suggest it won't go Tory.  The real question is do they get under or over 50% of the popular vote. 

[mileslunn]

Victoria should be an easy NDP hold, but interesting to see how well the Greens do.  Also it will be interesting to see if the Tories fall below 20%.  Since 1993 under the Reform/Alliance/Conservatives (not combining votes, just the most right wing party on the ballot) they have never fallen below 20%, but never cracked the 30% mark either.

For Durham, I would be very shocked if the Tories don't win.  The main question is do they get over 50% which my guess is no or do they fall below.

As for Calgary Centre, if I had to guess I would say the Tories narrowly hold it but it will be much closer than they want, nonetheless unlike Durham I could see this flipping.  I agree that in 2015 it will probably go back to the Tories unless they have some big scandal which sinks them nationally.  Otherwise I think their chances of losing the next election are greater than losing any seat in Calgary.

[mileslunn]

Still awaiting the final results but so far an okay night for the Tories.  They got clobbered as expected in Victoria, held onto Calgary Centre albeit but a rather slim margin compared to what the normally get and they did get over 50% in Durham which at least in this case suggests they have by in large held onto their support in Ontario (although one should be cautious in reading too much into these results).  For the Liberals a fairly good night as despite their poor showing in Victoria and Durham (both ridings they won in the 90s I should note), they did come close to pulling off an upset in Calgary Centre, which suggests that maybe they shouldn't be so quick to write off Alberta, although I suspect many provincial PCs who were angry at the fact Crockatt comes from the WRA and is a little too right wing for the riding might have voted Liberal this time since it would affect the composition of parliament, but might be reluctant to do so in a general election.  

The NDP improved slightly in Durham, did poorly in Calgary Centre as expected, but could potentially lose Victoria which would be a huge upset if they do, but I still think they will hold it.

Green Party a good night even if they don't pick up anything as in both Calgary Centre and Victoria they did very well, although in a general election I somehow doubt they will maintain those numbers.