Canadian by-elections, 2012

[lilTommy]

HA! thats sad, i like the Globe... but do they have 12yr old working there? thats pretty pathetic. a simple wiki search will show he was elected in 04... he ran and lost in 97 to Mills... yesh

This will be interesting race... comparissons can Maybe go back as far as 76 but 87 would be more accurate since the ridings been re-drawn so much.
There is no Liberal candidate yet so thats going to hurt them since Scott has been out and about since being nominated and had National attention (as much as the media gave the NDP caucus retreat any). The Tories have made this the "liberals to lose" which i still find odd that they consider their main target the Liberals here... they are bent on destryoing them, but that might just give them some fire.

[lilTommy]

Making some demographic maps of the riding right now...

Beautiful! The North end, East York pools near the Don Valley and Polls in central Riverdale around around Bloor were liberal polls for sure.
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=98141.msg2063794#msg2063794

I'm thinking the result will look more lik 08 than 11. I can see that Holmes, when the Liberals lose the tories will have tried to paint it as a failure, an NDP is still not a sure thing i'm sure we all remember Winnipeg North. But here, so far, there is no "star" liberal candidate, no liberal candidate at all actually.
I don't know, the last few polls i've been seeing haven't shown much movement in the ontario numbers, so this is going to be a Lib/NDP battle, its the NDPs to lose really and if you listen to Scott hes pushing this as not a sure thing victory.

[lilTommy]

I find the riding odd in that respect, there is a real difference between the two divides; North of Bloor/South of bloor. If fact the south side is more relatable with the more eastern Beaches area, and in the propsed 04 redistribution had them combined into a new riding (Riverdale-Beaches or something like that).
The greek, orthodox dominated north was the most Liberal friendly area, the benefit to the NDP this time is in having Cllr Mary Fragedakis to bolster support in the north, a council seat that was dominated previously by ring-winger Case Ootes.

South Riverdale/Leslieville is more middle class but heavily gentrifying so becoming more liberal friendly since housing prices here are some of the fastest growing. But its also a huge bastian for artist, leftist and champagne socialist... think the successful fight againt the Walmart.

[lilTommy]

Here are the demographic maps! http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2012/02/toronto-danforth-demographic-maps.html

Apparently there was an error in the PMOs office, and the date of the by-election will actually be March 19.

Liberals decide on their candidate on Feb 9.

Fantastic maps!
it will be interesting to see if those heavy greek, orthodox polls and the wealthier polls can once again be won by the liberals... a strong tory vote will hurt them for sure, but at this point they are fighting the greens for third. The Greens have nominated 11 candidate Adriana Mugnatto-Hamu

I just recently moved out of the riding, and for about 5 years i lived in the Queen-Broadview village... i never called it that, always stuck to South Riverdale.
Anywho, one thing to also note about Toronto-Danforth is that they have a very large quiet gay population... I think it was noted as having the second highest % after the obvious Toronto Centre. Location and housing market are primary reasons for this. This isn't something that i think the gov't has stats on... it just based on living there.

[lilTommy]

Interesting. The south part of the riding seems more eclectic and is therefore more gay friendly. But, if that map proves one thing, it's that gays like to live close to each other. They are quite similar to an ethnic group like that. It makes sense, it's harder to be gay and to live in areas with few gays, which would mean the area could be less understanding of them.  

Exactly... i choose to live in Riverdale because it is less the "scene" much like Cabbagetown and the Annex, but is still very diverse, great streetscapes and close to the core; as well as has a small town charm but big city feel... ok i miss the hood.

adma - exaclty, I full expect those polls to go in favour of the Liberals this time around... but i think the NDP has a very good champagne socialist candidate in that he might just might be able to keep many of those polls for the NDP.

Liberals lagging?
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/liberals-lagging-in-by-election-race-in-laytons-riding/article2328225/?from=sec368

[lilTommy]

But... nanos seems to be the outlier for Ontario:

Abacus (jan 16-19) - 25%
Angus-Reid (jan 20-21) - 24%
Harris-decima (jan 12-22) - 26%
all around the same timeframa as the Nanos poll, so the numbers were seeing are not much lower then the 29% from May11

[lilTommy]

a great write up on Pundit's guide
http://www.punditsguide.ca/2012/02/goodbye-election-called-in-laytons-old-riding/

and if your looking for the poll-by-poll numbers here is the wonderful 506
http://www.the506.com/elxnmaps/can2011/35094.html

I'm saying a repeat of 08 maybe 06, the NDP about 44-48%

[lilTommy]

and the Liberal candidate is.... Grant Gordon

anyone know what the turnout was at the nomination meeting?

[lilTommy]

to me a "star" candidate is someone with:
- broadbased name recognition;
- previous elected experience;
- has a built in semi or quasi cult appeal

so no, the liberals have not nominated a star candidate...

[lilTommy]

Thanks DL... so i have no idea where i got 29% just being hopeful i suppose

So the NDP isn't polling any change since May, and with that it looks good...
Chow is also pullin out all the stops in order to help Craig:
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1129989--ndp-mp-olivia-chow-fights-for-her-husband-s-ndp-successor-in-danforth-riding

I think the party is very VERY commited to have a Winnipeg North repeat; without a "star" candidate for the Liberals i don't see that happening, but i've had two calls to help out Craig.

[lilTommy]

Craig Scott - 61%
Grant Gordon - 19%
Andrew Keyes - 14%
Green - 4%
Other - 2%

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1131505--poll-ndp-will-win-toronto-danforth-byelection-by-wide-margin?bn=1

If that holds... and i hope it does (i'm always cautious not to get over confident with polls) thats just slightly more than Jack got!
Jack Layton - 60.8
Andrew Lang - 17.62
Katarina Von Koenig - 14.32
Adriana MH - 6.46

NDP up; Tories no change; Liberals down... DOWN! more then 2011, #fail. if the Liberals do this bad when Rae is the darling of the media, they are dooned in TO as far as i can see... whate they have left will be gobbled up between the NDP and Tories

[lilTommy]

Agreed, i think it might be a tad too optimistic, fantastic if thats the outcome esp going into the leadership race. but i think were more in for a 48-52% range.

https://twitter.com/#!/GrantGordonLib/status/169984731067318272

Grant and the Grits trying to be funny eh; sounds a lil'desperate to me and so much for "were listening, were changing..."

[lilTommy]

78-81... three years, a blip really in politics before he bolted to ONDP leader. But yes over 30yrs ago he was the MP

[lilTommy]

Once the vote is in you will have more comparative results between scott and layton.

I don't know, i've been getting calls all week to volunteer; hearing that there are thousands on the wknds to go out and canvas.
Last week i rode the 501 queen car the entire length of the riding. So i peered down the side streets and here is my not-so-scientific assesment:
Between Broadview and Jones, almost no Liberal signs, two greens and on average about 5-6 NDP signs up (on lawns).
From Jones to Coxwell (i believe thats the east border) here you see more Liberal signs, i'd say 1 liberal for every 4 NDP, also a smattering of Green signs. I saw no Tory signs. This is the south end so Riverdale and Leslieville areas.

I think an NDP win too... but it all depends on who can bring out the vote, i'd say 45%-55% for Scott... the liberals will probably be over 20% if not, they have something to worry about.

[lilTommy]

Trying to work out if Tory voters stayed home or strategically voted Liberal... How does turnout/vote totals compare to the General? Will be very interesting to see the poll maps.

Its pretty easy to see that the Liberals benefited the most from the tories, who oddly enough ran a campaign compared to 11 when they were no where (meaning they were actually dropping literature and doing a pretty sparse but active door campaign) This is an urban riding; the robocall, the huge crime bill all played against the tories.
I was actuall quite surprised to see that the % was rather on par with jack, i had thought there was more of a personal vote for jack (but much of that vote might have stayed home too) 43% turnout is pretty fantastic seeing its a by-election and hearing there was some heavy voter fatigue with all the heavy NDP & Lib campaigns.

Two vicotires here: NDP - held most of jacks vote and won; Liberals - gained about 10pts so they will see this as a signifigant rebound.

I suspect the map to be closer to the 2008 picture; probably some of the wealthier north riverdale and North end around the Don river to have gone back to the liberals.

[lilTommy]

Once the vote is in you will have more comparative results between scott and layton.

I don't know, i've been getting calls all week to volunteer; hearing that there are thousands on the wknds to go out and canvas.
Last week i rode the 501 queen car the entire length of the riding. So i peered down the side streets and here is my not-so-scientific assesment:
Between Broadview and Jones, almost no Liberal signs, two greens and on average about 5-6 NDP signs up (on lawns).
From Jones to Coxwell (i believe thats the east border) here you see more Liberal signs, i'd say 1 liberal for every 4 NDP, also a smattering of Green signs. I saw no Tory signs. This is the south end so Riverdale and Leslieville areas.

I think an NDP win too... but it all depends on who can bring out the vote, i'd say 45%-55% for Scott... the liberals will probably be over 20% if not, they have something to worry about.

If that was what the signs were like in Ottawa Centre, then that would indicate an overwhelming Liberal landslide.

I was doing a GOTV in one of our better polls in the provincial election. I think we had 30 signs to 1 or 2 Liberal signs. We ended up winning the poll by 2 votes I think. The whole riding, or at least my end of the riding was overwhelmingly NDP in terms of the sign war. In fact, some people STILL have their signs up... and the Liberals won the riding pretty convincingly. Either it's electoral fraud, or Liberals just are embarrassed to be Liberals.

I remember your stories during the election, Now i do remember hearing that the Liberal was a solid constituency guy (Yasir Naqvi), so that just strickes we as odd why put up an NDP sign just to vote Liberals... sounds like a closet case to me. But the Liberals with Dalton being from ottawa have that home town advantage eh... and correct me if i'm wrong, was the NDP candidate a strong one? or a well know one to be able to go tete-a-tete with Yasir?

[lilTommy]

if Ottawa was anything like TO, the Liberals ran a very very heavy strategic voting line... scare monerging those in urban seats that the liberals had to win otherwise the tories would be the government. there was noise that in York South Weston the grits ran a not-so-qiet anti-gay campaign against the NDPs Ferrera (sp). So i think there was so last minute swing of those who voted NDP in may to the liberals fearing the tories and going with the better the devil you know.
I told y'all about the Sarah Thomson story her fear mongering me... i almost scratched her eyes out jk

[lilTommy]

Important map for this discussion:

Thanks Hatman... one note, the Vieux-Rosemont ward is now held by Project Montreal, they won the by-election just held (an activist beat two previous elected officials, nicely done) That creates a huge green patch in central montreal Le Plateau-Rosemont-Sainte-Anne. I could see a Vision councillor possibly run for the NDP but they seem tied to the Blog, same for Union and the Liberals. PM is probably going to focus on winning council so you might not see to many run federall unless a Plateau council take a run as they "own" that area.
federally the NDP should be working on Ahuntsic and WMV... two polar opposite strategies too... in Ahuntsic a soft souverentist ala Boulerice (sp) would do well here, PM has a councillor there too; In WMV a anglo-federalist type who Westounters would be ok with ala Legace-Dowson could win it. Bourassa and SMSL i think are too ethnic-liberal attached right now... the NDP would need to make huge inroads/have a local ethnic candidate, which i don't know if the NDP has done enough work in those two areas to win-em over. Papineau would be a win if Trudeau wasn't around.
BUt were off topic on the by-elections... Any news on who the candidates are in Kitchener-Waterloo?

[lilTommy]

New Brunswick and PEI are the only Prov. NDP wings that have almost reached that point of disapearing... PEI more so where they poll about even with the greens. In NB they suffer from having no incumbents and no major centres to form a base (maybe Saint John but since Weir retired they haven't won a seat). NB seems the best place to start to rebuild over PEI

[lilTommy]

I think the NDP will shock everyone and win the Rothesay byelection. You heard it here.

I don't think they'll win, but getting 40% is not out of the realm of possibility.

I am really hoping that the NDP does win this, do we have a history of leaders running and not winning seats in by-elections? specifically in NB?... i remember in the late 90's (early 00's?) the NSNDP leader helen Macdonald (i think) lost a Cape Breton by-election... then it felt like she promptly resigned. Now we all know how things have turned out since
There was mention that the Alward tories are still popular, and this being a tory seat they have the advantage for sure. Any idea from the ground if the NDP or the tories or even the LIberals have momentum and can win?

[lilTommy]

Analyzing Rothesay: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/06/rothesay-new-brunswick-provincial-by.html

Great analysis; i am still dreamy-eyed in my hopes that Cardy can win (given the new found attention the riding could have with a party leader, i know i lived in Jacks riding from the moment he was elected till he pased RIP). BUT i think your probably right; demographically its just not there for the NDP... if this were BC or NS, and if the tories were less popular then they are now, possibly a protest vote would push Cardy over. But NB has never been solid for the NDP; the SJ area has been the only place to see a provincial NDP member in recent history, and maybe its Cardys ploy to play to a new constituency but without sitting members there on the sidelines.
If the NDP gets anywhere over 30% is this going to be seen as a "moral" victory... if the Liberals do as bad as were suggesting; could this not help the NDP in its building?

[lilTommy]

... it's a Conservative suburban district in New Brunswick. Why were you all cheering for an NDP win?

Because i don't necessarily think all rich/and or suburabanites are conservatives; and if we put in the resources and do the ground work... they can be winable. Look at the results the NDP clearly is the party with momentum growing its vote almost 20% with a candidate who is not from the community, albeit the leader but still this is NB, and this is a good result.
Is the NBL that embedded in the province? NB feels like NS in the 80s-90s the two old parties just trading places and the NDP just nowhere... But this is a good result, not sure what the NBNDPs plan is but in this province, i think strategic concentration of resources is the only way to win.

[lilTommy]

The NDP will run the same candidate as in 11... by the sounds of it? the page is still up and looks like its still being updated?

GM workers, CAW gal, environmentalist... single mother, sounds like Andrea Horwath sans the Line worker

http://www.facebook.com/#!/pages/Tammy-Schoep-Federal-NDP-Candidate-for-Durham-Riding/338572158128

The last time the NDP won Any Durham riding must have been 1990?

[lilTommy]

Only way for the NDP to win is a strong Liberal Party showing, and coming up the middle a la 1990. Not going to happen. Plus, the area is not like it used to be... when was the last time Oshawa went NDP?

When Broadbent had it?

Well Michael Breaugh held it till 93 (replaced Bradbent in 90); and Prov. Allan Pilkey held it till 95 (one of 12 to vote against Bill 167, which is one of the reasons why we lost the riding in 95!).
In 90's the NDP held all 4 Durham ridings (prov.)

[lilTommy]

Yeah, the last time the NDP won Oshawa federally or provincially was 1990. Wow! Same year the rest of Durham went NDP. Weirdness. Of course the margins were different. We got over 60% of the vote in Oshawa, and the other Durham seats were won with around 35%. Breaugh won the seat in a 1990 by-election with 48%. He then lost it in 1993 with only 15%. The closest we've come since was Sid Ryan back in 2004 when he lost by 500 votes. The collapse of the Liberals in 2011 really helped the Tories who actually increased the margin of victory over the NDP. Looks like the NDP can't break 40% in the riding, and need a strong Liberal candidate to have a shot at winning.

I think the same will be true in quite a few ridings actually... for the NDP to win, the Liberals need to be what, above 25% provincewide? any lower and the tories keep the seats they have in the GTA...

Has me wondering, Does the NDP have really no chance in Calgary Centre? What would be a good-momentum showing? 20+?