Canadian by-elections, 2012

[Hatman 🍁]

Woohoo! Finally...

[Hatman 🍁]

haha, the article says Layton first won the riding in 1997. Fail.

[Hatman 🍁]

Making some demographic maps of the riding right now...

[Hatman 🍁]

There's a definite difference between the East York part of the riding and the Toronto part. The former is heavily Orthodox, Greek, etc, while the latter is heavily Chinese, and non religious.

Also, those Liberal bits from 2008 in the central-west part of the riding makes sense, because that's the wealthiest part of the riding.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here are the demographic maps! http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2012/02/toronto-danforth-demographic-maps.html

Apparently there was an error in the PMOs office, and the date of the by-election will actually be March 19.

Liberals decide on their candidate on Feb 9.

[Hatman 🍁]

Too bad we can't have sexual orientation of the census, it would be really interesting... but people wouldn't want to answer the question.

As for calling it Queen-Broadview Village, that's just a name the I pulled out of my at atlas. It probably only refers to the shopping district in the area.

[Hatman 🍁]

Interesting. The south part of the riding seems more eclectic and is therefore more gay friendly. But, if that map proves one thing, it's that gays like to live close to each other. They are quite similar to an ethnic group like that. It makes sense, it's harder to be gay and to live in areas with few gays, which would mean the area could be less understanding of them. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Looks like the Liberal candidates aren't really that scary. Grant Gordon's ad: http://www.grantgordonliberal.com/eblasts/grant-liberal-nomination.html while humourous, admits in one part (or lies to us?) that the Liberals have no hope in the riding.

Ah well. And that article says the other Liberal guy is a former Green. Hmm.

Based on recent results in the riding, the NDP would be in real trouble if they dipped below 45%. Not in trouble of losing, but it would be a very bad result. I expect the party to get around 50%.

[Hatman 🍁]

Scratch that. If the NDP truly is only at 17% in the province (last Nanos poll), they are looking at about 44% in T-D, I'd say.

[Hatman 🍁]

If the NDP is polling in the mid 20s province wide, then maybe the NDP will be able to break 50% in the riding.

Let's throw out 2011, because Jack's numbers were inflated for personal reasons. However, Peter Tabuns got 54% back in October. This is in a year where the NDP didn't do well in Toronto compared to the Liberals... but Tabuns increased his vote considerably, compared to other NDPers in the city. Incumbent advantage I guess?

The last time this seat was open (provincially or federally) was in 2006. Tabuns got 48%. The provincial party was polling around 20% at the time. Now, the NDP has historically done better provincially than federally in Toronto, so that's something to look at as well.

I'd say we're looking at a minimum of 44% (NDP tanks in the polls), and a maximum of 54%, which was Tabuns' percentage in October. You can average that out to 49%.

Ok, so howabout the Liberals. They will be boosted by the fact that the race is a by-election. They got 39% here in the 2006 by-election. They were polling between 34 and 41% at the time, province wide (provincially). I think that 39% is their maximum in this riding, especially since they are going to be running a weak candidate. The Tory vote will collapse into the Liberals however, and I don't think they'll get lower than their 2008 showing at 29%. This gives us an average of 34% for the Liberals.

The Tories wont be putting much effort into the race. They generally have a base of 9% in the riding, but in the Layton vs Mills match, it got down to 6%. I don't see that happening, and I'll say their minimum is 9%. If the Tories put on a good campaign, they can match the 14% they got in the federal election. That's puts their average at around 11% or 12%.

And the Greens? If the race is seen as close, their vote will be marginalized. They got 2% in the 2006 by-election, and 4% in the last provincial election. Their candidate got 6% in the federal election in May, and she is running again. I'd say the base for the Greens is 2%, and if everyone votes for her again, she'll max out at 6%. That gives us an average of 4%.

Others: Maximum they'll get is 2%, so I'll give them 1%. Does that add up? If you give the Tories 12%, it does! woohoo!

[Hatman 🍁]

and the Liberal candidate is.... Grant Gordon

anyone know what the turnout was at the nomination meeting?

Yeah, it was lower than the NDP turnout, but only 100 or so lower.

[Hatman 🍁]

lol...

[Hatman 🍁]

Good news, but I would be surprised if we broke 60%.

[Hatman 🍁]

Bump

TorDan by-election is tomorrow.

Profile: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/03/toronto-danforth-by-election-guide.html
(shameless plug).

[Hatman 🍁]

My predictions are going to be off a bit, I must admit I've been ignoring this race for the last few weeks. But yeah, one thing I know is that the NDP will win it.

[Hatman 🍁]

Earl, I love your work. Those poll-by-poll maps are fantastic!

Thanks. I wish I had more time these past few weeks, I had plans to make many more maps. Oh well.

[Hatman 🍁]

Once the vote is in you will have more comparative results between scott and layton.

I don't know, i've been getting calls all week to volunteer; hearing that there are thousands on the wknds to go out and canvas.
Last week i rode the 501 queen car the entire length of the riding. So i peered down the side streets and here is my not-so-scientific assesment:
Between Broadview and Jones, almost no Liberal signs, two greens and on average about 5-6 NDP signs up (on lawns).
From Jones to Coxwell (i believe thats the east border) here you see more Liberal signs, i'd say 1 liberal for every 4 NDP, also a smattering of Green signs. I saw no Tory signs. This is the south end so Riverdale and Leslieville areas.

I think an NDP win too... but it all depends on who can bring out the vote, i'd say 45%-55% for Scott... the liberals will probably be over 20% if not, they have something to worry about.

If that was what the signs were like in Ottawa Centre, then that would indicate an overwhelming Liberal landslide.

I was doing a GOTV in one of our better polls in the provincial election. I think we had 30 signs to 1 or 2 Liberal signs. We ended up winning the poll by 2 votes I think. The whole riding, or at least my end of the riding was overwhelmingly NDP in terms of the sign war. In fact, some people STILL have their signs up... and the Liberals won the riding pretty convincingly. Either it's electoral fraud, or Liberals just are embarrassed to be Liberals.

[Hatman 🍁]

175 polls in

Scott down to 59.6%

Excellent result. Not quite as good as Jack, but not far off. Who would expect a better result?

[Hatman 🍁]

180 polls in and Scott is down to 59.5. Gordon at 28.6%

Both are doing better than I had expected. However, if I actually payed attention to this race, I would've known the Tories wouldn't fare well. Obviously they stayed home or voted Liberal.

[Hatman 🍁]

All the polls reporting now

Craig Scott (NDP): 59.4% (-1.4%)
Grant Gordon (Lib) 28.5% (+10.9%)
Andrew Keyes (Cons) 5.4% (-8.9%)
Adriana Mugnatto-Hamu (Grn) 4.7% (-1.7%)
Others: 1.9% (+1.1%)

Turnout: 43.4% (not bad for a by-election, especially one that was a foregone conclusion)

[Hatman 🍁]

In terms of raw numbers, the Liberals actually got more votes than last time, so obviously some Conservatives switched their votes, and a few New Democrats (well, most likely Liberals who had voted for Layton just that one time). The Tories went down by 7000 votes, and the Liberals increased by almost 1000. 16000 less people voted.

[Hatman 🍁]

Once the vote is in you will have more comparative results between scott and layton.

I don't know, i've been getting calls all week to volunteer; hearing that there are thousands on the wknds to go out and canvas.
Last week i rode the 501 queen car the entire length of the riding. So i peered down the side streets and here is my not-so-scientific assesment:
Between Broadview and Jones, almost no Liberal signs, two greens and on average about 5-6 NDP signs up (on lawns).
From Jones to Coxwell (i believe thats the east border) here you see more Liberal signs, i'd say 1 liberal for every 4 NDP, also a smattering of Green signs. I saw no Tory signs. This is the south end so Riverdale and Leslieville areas.

I think an NDP win too... but it all depends on who can bring out the vote, i'd say 45%-55% for Scott... the liberals will probably be over 20% if not, they have something to worry about.

If that was what the signs were like in Ottawa Centre, then that would indicate an overwhelming Liberal landslide.

I was doing a GOTV in one of our better polls in the provincial election. I think we had 30 signs to 1 or 2 Liberal signs. We ended up winning the poll by 2 votes I think. The whole riding, or at least my end of the riding was overwhelmingly NDP in terms of the sign war. In fact, some people STILL have their signs up... and the Liberals won the riding pretty convincingly. Either it's electoral fraud, or Liberals just are embarrassed to be Liberals.

I remember your stories during the election, Now i do remember hearing that the Liberal was a solid constituency guy (Yasir Naqvi), so that just strickes we as odd why put up an NDP sign just to vote Liberals... sounds like a closet case to me. But the Liberals with Dalton being from ottawa have that home town advantage eh... and correct me if i'm wrong, was the NDP candidate a strong one? or a well know one to be able to go tete-a-tete with Yasir?

He wasn't that well known, so he wasn't strong in that aspect. But he would have been a great MP. He had a funny name (Anil Naidoo), but then again so did the incumbent. Perhaps Dalton had home town advantage. I dont know. There was a lot of head scratching after the election for me.

[Hatman 🍁]

if Ottawa was anything like TO, the Liberals ran a very very heavy strategic voting line... scare monerging those in urban seats that the liberals had to win otherwise the tories would be the government. there was noise that in York South Weston the grits ran a not-so-qiet anti-gay campaign against the NDPs Ferrera (sp). So i think there was so last minute swing of those who voted NDP in may to the liberals fearing the tories and going with the better the devil you know.
I told y'all about the Sarah Thomson story her fear mongering me... i almost scratched her eyes out jk

There was a strategic voting scare. It made me very angry at the Liberals for being intellectually dishonest with people like that. I couldn't go through a day in that campaign without overhearing someone on the phone's trying to explain to a voter that voting for us would not help the Liberals. Are people really that gullible?

[Hatman 🍁]

This is going be the most important by-election in provincial history. Or at least recent history. It's certainly winnable by the Liberals, although perhaps not in this climate.  I'll definitely be rooting for the Tories in this one, unless the NDP does have a shot.

[Hatman 🍁]

By the way, the federal NDP held the riding between 1968 and 1979.  It is normally a Liberal riding though. The federal Liberals did really well in 2011 and they put up good numbers against Witmer in the Fall. A strong NDP campaign might create a large enough vote split though the keep the Liberals from winning.