VA: Mason-Dixon: Obama a single point ahead of Romney, leads Newt by 11

[Gustaf]

BWWHWHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHA!

Paulie and his fellow lefties don't seem to get the fact that when an incumbent polls below 50% they are in BIG BIG trouble.

Obama is under 50% against both Newt and Romney.

Undecided voters do not break toward the incumbent. They break for the challenger.

Illinois Governor Quinn must have gone down in flames in 2010. Oh wait.

Yes, Quinn certainly was in no trouble, but cruised safely to a landslide reelection.

Umm, that wasn't the point. The point was that he was trailing something like 46-40, with 14% undecided, which means he should have lost in a landslide according to the undecideds break for the challenger rule.

Ok, fair enough. I assumed we were talking about the actual content of the original post - i.e. that incumbents below 50% are in trouble. And it seemed to me that Quinn was in trouble since the election was very close.

I am aware undecideds do not always necessarily break for the challenger.

[King]

If undecided vote breaks 100% for the challenger, then why even bother calling them undecided?

[DrScholl]

The 50% rule is overrated, as a good percentage of polling consistently shows candidates under 50%, even when we know that they will win.

Let's remember, Virginia used to be safe Republican, these numbers are not good for either Gingrich or Romney by any stretch.

[krazen1211]

Virginia's flirtation with the Democratic party looks like a one night stand. Since then the GOP has established a position of dominance. Senate Democrats' aggregate 56% in Fairfax loses the state.

[Sbane]

Virginia's flirtation with the Democratic party looks like a one night stand. Since then the GOP has established a position of dominance. Senate Democrats' aggregate 56% in Fairfax loses the state.

Yeah, Obama leading by 1 against Obama and 11 against Newt is a real danger sign for the Democrats! And of course 56% in Fairfax won't cut it. Though what was the overall margin in the state? I would think a performance like that in Fairfax would lead to a 3-4 point loss in the state overall?

[pbrower2a]

Virginia's flirtation with the Democratic party looks like a one night stand. Since then the GOP has established a position of dominance. Senate Democrats' aggregate 56% in Fairfax loses the state.

It is far too early to tell that the Senate wins of Kaine in 2006 and Warner in 2008 or the Presidential win of Barack Obama in Virginia are 'one-night-stands'. Webb got a tough win against what seemed an entrenched opponent, Warner utterly crushed  his Senate opponent, and the Obama win was not really close.

Virginia used to be a safe R state for most offices, basically switching Parties for Governor. The last time that Virginia had voted for the Democratic nominee for President in a close election was 1948. How R was it? LBJ may have won it, but it was his 10th-worst state or 41st best. It was the only former Confederate State to not vote for Jimmy Carter in 1976. Bill Clinton never won it despite winning 370 and 379 electoral votes. Dubya won it twice by 8%.

Something has changed: Virginia has practically become a Northern state in its voting patterns.  As some put it, it has "seceded from the South". As it has become more of a Northern state by attracting Yankees from the Northeast and Midwest it has followed the tendency away from the GOP.

The tendency in recent weeks has been for President Obama to gain in Virginia. George Allen isn't doing well in an effort to win an open seat for Senate. About the only good news for Republicans in Virginia is that the Governor gets good approval ratings. That's because he stays away from the abrasive styles of the likes of Brewer, Kasich, Walker, Scott, and Snyder -- and he is far more honest than Deal and brighter than Perry.   

   

[DrScholl]

Using state senate races to measure presidential ones is not a good measure of anything, since off-year numbers and lower level office numbers are not the same as presidential numbers. And those numbers are still much lower than what Republicans were getting in past cycles. But, Republicans are free to believe that Gingrich or Romney will win in a landslide here if it makes them feel better.

[TJ in Oregon]

No way Obama wins Virginia by only 1%, considering he won by 6% last time.

You do realize that - with the Occupy stuff going on - the Republicans are going to get their clocks cleaned.

Mason-Dixon seems to lean R in results.

A statistical tie between the President and Mitt Romney implies roughly a 50% chance of either winning the state. Basically President Obama can feel safe about winning all states that Al Gore won in 2000, Colorado, and Nevada  (due to demographics). Six states -- Arizona, Florida, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia -- are best described as 50-50 propositions. Romney must win every one of them; President Obama must win one of these to win re-election. It's now roughly one chance in 128 for Romney and 127 in 128 for President Obama.

There's no easy way for the Republicans to win the must-win states still available (they can forget Michigan and Pennsylvania  for now) without making major inroads into Obama support. The states in question are diverse enough and scattered enough that no campaign blitz can effectively win them all at once and no appeal can be made that tailors itself to every one of those states.

This method of dealing with statistics and probablity is only valid if the events are independent. Who wins a particular state is not independent of who wins another state on your list. A candidate winning any one of those states increases the likelihood that the same candidate will win the others as well. Also, you said six states and listed seven, considering probabilities for seven. I would disagree that Arizona is a 50/50 chance state since past election results tend to favor the Republicans, but this is a minor point compared to the logical problem of correlated outcomes that completely changes the probability.

[Torie]

Since at the time this poll was taken, Obama probably led nationally by more than one point over Romney, this poll suggests to me if accurate that Virginia is a tad more GOP than the nation, which is good news for Romney.  I view Virginia as the tipping point state. Another chap thinks it is this state.  I don't agree, since he thinks NH is even more firmly in the Obama camp (with Virginia barely in the Romney/GOP camp, which in my view is just silly.

[krazen1211]

Using state senate races to measure presidential ones is not a good measure of anything, since off-year numbers and lower level office numbers are not the same as presidential numbers. And those numbers are still much lower than what Republicans were getting in past cycles. But, Republicans are free to believe that Gingrich or Romney will win in a landslide here if it makes them feel better.

Actually, Virginia Senate Democrats performed about 4-5 points better in 2007 than they did in 2011, precinct by precinct. They of course did gerrymander the districts.

[krazen1211]

Virginia's flirtation with the Democratic party looks like a one night stand. Since then the GOP has established a position of dominance. Senate Democrats' aggregate 56% in Fairfax loses the state.

Yeah, Obama leading by 1 against Obama and 11 against Newt is a real danger sign for the Democrats! And of course 56% in Fairfax won't cut it. Though what was the overall margin in the state? I would think a performance like that in Fairfax would lead to a 3-4 point loss in the state overall?

Senate Democrats did not field candidates in most State Senate districts. Given that, the fact that the GOP won the overall 2011 vote by landslide margins is a bit misleading.

McDonnell of course won Fairfax County in 2009 so certainly the Democrats improved their position from there.

[The Professor]

Virginia's flirtation with the Democratic party looks like a one night stand.

You don't know the first thing about a "one night stand".

[krazen1211]

Virginia's flirtation with the Democratic party looks like a one night stand. Since then the GOP has established a position of dominance. Senate Democrats' aggregate 56% in Fairfax loses the state.

It is far too early to tell that the Senate wins of Kaine in 2006 and Warner in 2008 or the Presidential win of Barack Obama in Virginia are 'one-night-stands'. Webb got a tough win against what seemed an entrenched opponent, Warner utterly crushed  his Senate opponent, and the Obama win was not really close.

Virginia used to be a safe R state for most offices, basically switching Parties for Governor. The last time that Virginia had voted for the Democratic nominee for President in a close election was 1948. How R was it? LBJ may have won it, but it was his 10th-worst state or 41st best. It was the only former Confederate State to not vote for Jimmy Carter in 1976. Bill Clinton never won it despite winning 370 and 379 electoral votes. Dubya won it twice by 8%.

Something has changed: Virginia has practically become a Northern state in its voting patterns.  As some put it, it has "seceded from the South". As it has become more of a Northern state by attracting Yankees from the Northeast and Midwest it has followed the tendency away from the GOP.

The tendency in recent weeks has been for President Obama to gain in Virginia. George Allen isn't doing well in an effort to win an open seat for Senate. About the only good news for Republicans in Virginia is that the Governor gets good approval ratings. That's because he stays away from the abrasive styles of the likes of Brewer, Kasich, Walker, Scott, and Snyder -- and he is far more honest than Deal and brighter than Perry.   

   

George Allen is doing just fine. And while he did lose in 2006 due to a macaca moment, the GOP still held the 2nd, 5th, and 11th districts in that election.

The rest of the statement is quite funny. Virginia has a Republican trifecta. Hardly the hallmark of a 'northern' state.

[Associate Justice PiT]

The 50% rule is overrated, as a good percentage of polling consistently shows candidates under 50%, even when we know that they will win.

Let's remember, Virginia used to be safe Republican, these numbers are not good for either Gingrich or Romney by any stretch.

     Not to mention that some states have consistently strong third-party votes that make even 50% unnecessary. For example, 48% is enough to win in California since third-parties consistently take about 5%.

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac will release a poll on Virginia at 6:30 AM EST on February 8.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=1700