The Democratic nominee would have to be weak or suffer a scandal. Cuomo or Schweitzer would destroy him.
Conventional wisdom says that 8 years is the most one party can get. Only exception in post FDR/Truman times, Reagan/Bush 12 years from 1981 to 1993, were a fluke.
I view that more as an issue of fatigue to get the years 9-12. Gore, Nixon (1960) and Ford ran close races in elections between two equal candidates each time. Hell, even Humphrey wasn't that far off, just swing 3 close states his way.
I think going for years 13-16 (ala Bush) doesn't typically pan out because the business cycle tends to rear its head by the then.
Assuming Obama wins, the Republicans are favored to win slightly between the benches (although both sides are phenomenal). Santorum would be a weak choice, though, and tip the scales to the Democrats.
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