Maine results thread.

[tpfkaw]

Might as well start this early.

Here are some early leaked results according to WatchTheVote (Paul supporters who report the vote totals in their precinct, so I can't vouch for its accuracy, but they were the ones who figured out Santorum beat Romney in IA).

Image of the summary if you don't have a Google account:

[Lief 🗽]

Awesome! Assuming turn-out is down from 2008 again (which is likely), that's probably something like 10-20% of the vote already.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Looks like I need to change my prediction for Maine to a Romney win.   For obvious reasons, the Paul numbers will be inflated because of the source of which precincts are reported.  The only question is 30% or 40%.

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

Looks like I need to change my prediction for Maine to a Romney win.   For obvious reasons, the Paul numbers will be inflated because of the source of which precincts are reported.  The only question is 30% or 40%.

Haters gonna hate.

[TheGlobalizer]

Looks like I need to change my prediction for Maine to a Romney win.   For obvious reasons, the Paul numbers will be inflated because of the source of which precincts are reported.  The only question is 30% or 40%.

Haters gonna hate.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Not a hater, but there is an obvious self-selection bias at work here that makes the numbers useful for gauging the relative strengths of the other candidates, but will inflate Paul's results.  Paul's only chance of winning Maine would appear to be that the Santorum surge takes more Romney supporters with it than Paul supporters, and that it be large enough to affect the outcome.  The first is likely true, but I am doubtful of the second.  I won't be shocked if Paul takes Maine, but I will be surprised, and pleasantly so.

[RI]

Santorum will probably surge in Saturday's voting. Should be enough to keep the winner under 40%, I hope.

If Paul loses Maine, does he win any state?

[Lief 🗽]

Santorum will probably surge in Saturday's voting. Should be enough to keep the winner under 40%, I hope.

If Paul loses Maine, does he win any state?

WA, AK, and ND remain possibilities. Montana would also be a prime opportunity if it were still a caucus this year. He'll probably get a strong second in Idaho, but the Mormons there should put Mitt over the top.

[Free Palestine]

This is happening today?

[RI]

Santorum will probably surge in Saturday's voting. Should be enough to keep the winner under 40%, I hope.

If Paul loses Maine, does he win any state?

Won't he have shot in your state? He almost won there in 2008.

He's got a shot, but don't underestimate the WSRP's ability to massage the results. Also, don't underestimate the number of evangelicals in the state party; Robertson won here in 1988 after all.

[Lief 🗽]

Yeah, they basically cancelled the caucuses in 2008 when it looked like he was going to win, IIRC.

[Eraserhead]

This is happening today?

It's been happening over several days. The official results are supposed to be released Saturday.

[Free Palestine]

This is happening today?

Its been happening over several days. The official results are supposed to be released Saturday.

Well that's interesting.

[Joe Biden 2020]

This is happening today?

It's an ongoing caucus that started I believe last Saturday and ends this Saturday, February 11.

[Lief 🗽]

It actually started in January and will last until March 3rd in some places, but the straw poll results will be announced Saturday at 7:30 PM EST.

[RI]

He'll probably get a strong second in Idaho, but the Mormons there should put Mitt over the top.

Mormons will probably be a majority of the vote in the Idaho caucus.

[Lief 🗽]

He'll probably get a strong second in Idaho, but the Mormons there should put Mitt over the top.

Mormons will probably be a majority of the vote in the Idaho caucus.

Yeah, luckily Idaho is proportional, so Paul will still get some delegates at least.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

This is happening today?

It's an ongoing caucus that started I believe last Saturday and ends this Saturday, February 11.

It actually started in January and will last until March 3rd in some places, but the straw poll results will be announced Saturday at 7:30 PM EST.

They merely encouraged places to vote between last Saturday and this Saturday, but some places didn't follow their advice. If Saturday's result is close, that means that the final actual result could be different.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

So far, Paul is doing better in the counties the website's reported that Romney won in 2008.  Although, they may be cherrypicking results, so...

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

I'm in DC with my phone, and the reception is terrible, so websites with images kill my battery... Can somebody post an update or a link to the googledoc?

[argentarius]

I'm in DC with my phone, and the reception is terrible, so websites with images kill my battery... Can somebody post an update or a link to the googledoc?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/lv?authkey=CKT21ZkH&hl=en_US&key=0AjQBwcCtzwG8dEdGUWZjS1FwTW8wTzVyOEJ6dmg4cHc&toomany=true#gid=1

Not much more since the start of the thread. The best thing about Maine is that Paul gets 2 weeks in which he won the last contest if he wins it.

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

Speaking of which, Fox News cancelled Freedom Watch.  Could Napolitano be picked for Paul's VP?  I think it would be a good choice.  Or at least get him appointed to the Supreme Court if Paul did pull it all off.

[TheGlobalizer]

Speaking of which, Fox News cancelled Freedom Watch.  Could Napolitano be picked for Paul's VP?  I think it would be a good choice.  Or at least get him appointed to the Supreme Court if Paul did pull it all off.

Napolitano is overrated by libertarians.  I like the guy but he's a lightweight judge.

[Averroës Nix]

Speaking of which, Fox News cancelled Freedom Watch.  Could Napolitano be picked for Paul's VP?  I think it would be a good choice. 

Yeah, about as good a choice for VP as John Stossel, Drew Carey, or the guy who pumps my gas.

[Minnesota Mike]

He'll probably get a strong second in Idaho, but the Mormons there should put Mitt over the top.

Mormons will probably be a majority of the vote in the Idaho caucus.

Yeah, luckily Idaho is proportional, so Paul will still get some delegates at least.

Idaho is Winner Take All if anyone gets over 50% of the national delegates, which IMO is likely given Idaho's system of multiple voting rounds at the county level until one person gets all the county delegates.

http://www.idaho-republican-caucus.com/caucus-rules.html