Maine results thread. (user search)
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  Maine results thread. (search mode)
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Author Topic: Maine results thread.  (Read 40064 times)
RI
realisticidealist
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Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« on: February 09, 2012, 08:49:02 PM »
Santorum will probably surge in Saturday's voting. Should be enough to keep the winner under 40%, I hope.

If Paul loses Maine, does he win any state?
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #1 on: February 09, 2012, 08:58:31 PM »
« Edited: February 09, 2012, 09:00:02 PM by realisticidealist »
Quote from: Eraserhead on February 09, 2012, 08:56:21 PM
Quote from: realisticidealist on February 09, 2012, 08:49:02 PM
Santorum will probably surge in Saturday's voting. Should be enough to keep the winner under 40%, I hope.

If Paul loses Maine, does he win any state?

Won't he have shot in your state? He almost won there in 2008.

He's got a shot, but don't underestimate the WSRP's ability to massage the results. Also, don't underestimate the number of evangelicals in the state party; Robertson won here in 1988 after all.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #2 on: February 09, 2012, 09:06:15 PM »
Quote from: Lief on February 09, 2012, 08:57:27 PM
He'll probably get a strong second in Idaho, but the Mormons there should put Mitt over the top.

Mormons will probably be a majority of the vote in the Idaho caucus.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #3 on: February 10, 2012, 11:37:35 PM »
« Edited: February 10, 2012, 11:39:32 PM by realisticidealist »
Seeing as a lot of places haven't caucused yet, I rather doubt those numbers as well. Plus, those numbers are way higher than last time. I suppose they could be using a different reporting system, but whatev.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #4 on: February 10, 2012, 11:42:09 PM »
Quote from: Mr. Morden on February 10, 2012, 11:40:13 PM
Quote from: Dabeav on February 10, 2012, 11:36:39 PM
A Daily Pauler in Australia posted these numbers from Google Elections that the US cannot see yet (time-based, lol):

Romney
45.7%
5,489

Gingrich
33.5%
4,022

Paul
10.5%
1,263

Santorum
9.7%
1,165

I really, really doubt those numbers.  Gingrich? Really?  I guess we'll see what the real story is tomorrow.

I'm in Australia.  Tell me the URL, and I'll let you know if it's legit.


I think you can just Google search "Google Politics" and click on results.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #5 on: February 10, 2012, 11:45:13 PM »
Quote from: wormyguy on February 10, 2012, 11:44:17 PM
That same thing happened with IA; people on the far side of the world searching for the IA results early saw wacky placeholder results (I think they had Cain in first and Roemer in third, or something like that).

Yeah, AP does that a lot to test their pages. Google probably gets their results from them.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #6 on: February 10, 2012, 11:46:09 PM »
« Edited: February 10, 2012, 11:49:20 PM by realisticidealist »
Here's an image of the placeholder results:



EDIT: I checked the AP page and they have test results up. Mystery solved.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #7 on: February 11, 2012, 03:38:20 PM »
Here's the tweet:

https://twitter.com/#!/LLStarks/status/168418420495360000
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #8 on: February 11, 2012, 03:43:33 PM »
« Edited: February 11, 2012, 03:45:31 PM by realisticidealist »
The spreadsheet has more updated numbers from Androscoggin with Santorum beating Mitt (Should be Rick's best county).

Paul 262 (41.2%)
Santorum 188 (29.6%)
Romney 173 (27.2%)
Gingrich 13 (2.0%)
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #9 on: February 11, 2012, 03:46:27 PM »
The Lewiston area is super working class.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #10 on: February 11, 2012, 04:17:26 PM »
Androscoggin totals now listed as complete. No change.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #11 on: February 11, 2012, 04:22:32 PM »
« Edited: February 11, 2012, 04:25:03 PM by realisticidealist »
An update from Cumberland County and York County (with Paul currently up there) puts Santorum at 20% statewide.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #12 on: February 11, 2012, 05:11:22 PM »
Quote from: Meeker on February 11, 2012, 05:09:26 PM
So are the results just going to come all at once in one big dump? Pretty anti-climactic but I guess preferable to the Nevada mess.

Everything except Washington County will come in at once, where the caucuses were pushed back a week due to snow. If it's close, we might not know the winner until next week.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #13 on: February 11, 2012, 05:16:44 PM »
Quote from: Torie on February 11, 2012, 05:15:48 PM
Quote from: realisticidealist on February 11, 2012, 05:11:22 PM
Quote from: Meeker on February 11, 2012, 05:09:26 PM
So are the results just going to come all at once in one big dump? Pretty anti-climactic but I guess preferable to the Nevada mess.

Everything except Washington County will come in at once, where the caucuses were pushed back a week due to snow. If it's close, we might not know the winner until next week.

And somehow I have this instinct that Washington County is Mittens country. It's bucolic, incredibly scenic, probably relatively high income, and well salted with old line Yankees. But it's a caucus so ...

McCain won there last time. It was his only county win in Maine. Romney didn't do too well, but Paul did really poorly.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #14 on: February 11, 2012, 05:24:54 PM »
Quote from: Eraserhead on February 11, 2012, 05:24:20 PM
Drudge says we are getting the results at 6:30 ET, is that accurate?

Sounds about right, yeah.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #15 on: February 11, 2012, 06:23:50 PM »
Sad

Sad, but not unexpected.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #16 on: February 11, 2012, 06:28:23 PM »
Paul once again fails. He has still never won a statewide contest in his life. Should have known better.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #17 on: February 11, 2012, 06:34:01 PM »
Worst part is that they aren't going to release the town-by-town vote until Monday.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #18 on: February 11, 2012, 07:41:03 PM »
Paul probably won one of the CDs, right?
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #19 on: February 11, 2012, 08:00:18 PM »
Quote from: Assemblyman & Queen Mum Inks.LWC on February 11, 2012, 07:58:58 PM
How has it been called for Romney if not all the caucuses have been held?

The caucuses held after today don't count.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #20 on: February 11, 2012, 09:09:03 PM »
« Edited: February 11, 2012, 09:12:21 PM by realisticidealist »
I went through and summed up all the town-by-town results to get the county totals. Santorum won Somerset County. Either I or the party is missing some votes for Romney somewhere. All the other votes add up:



EDIT: They were in Oxford County. Mitt actually got 129 votes there.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #21 on: February 12, 2012, 12:47:10 AM »
Town map:
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #22 on: February 12, 2012, 01:12:11 AM »
Quote from: Torie on February 12, 2012, 01:10:08 AM
What do the grey and the brown represent on the map?  Surely Newt didn't win anything (or did he?), so we have 4 colors but only 3 potential winners.

Dark grey is a tie, Light grey didn't have a caucus. I'm not sure what you mean by brown, but it's probably a high Santorum or Paul percentage town. I'm using Dave's color scheme.

Newt won four towns (he's blue) and "Other" won one (dark purple).
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #23 on: February 12, 2012, 01:20:52 AM »
The Maine GOP hasn't broken down was "Other" means, but it could be Uncommitted or anyone really (maybe Huntsman?). "Other" randomly carried the town of Otis, where it got all 3 votes.

The towns Gingrich won were Deer Isle (6 of 19 votes), Hiram (2 of 5 votes), Medway (1 of 1 vote), and St. Albans (3 of 4 votes).
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #24 on: February 14, 2012, 05:23:11 PM »
Dave, will you add the town results into the database at some point for these primaries/caucuses?
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