Cannabis '15: The Long Wait Until 2016

[greenforest32]

http://blog.norml.org/2012/02/09/8-states-may-legalize-marijuana-this-year-did-yours-make-the-list/

[greenforest32]

Colorado initiative might make the ballot after all: http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2012/02/17/regulate-marijuana-like-alcohol-claims-enough-signatures-for-colo-ballot/

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[greenforest32]

Colorado initiative does make the ballot:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/27/usa-marijuana-colorado-idINDEE81Q0OR20120227

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[greenforest32]

http://blog.norml.org/2012/02/09/8-states-may-legalize-marijuana-this-year-did-yours-make-the-list/

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Just to clarify, the Cannabis Tax Act initiative needs 87,213 valid signatures while the IP-24 initiative needs 116,284 valid signatures:

* http://egov.sos.state.or.us/elec/web_irr_search.record_detail?p_reference=20120009..LSCYYY.

* http://egov.sos.state.or.us/elec/web_irr_search.record_detail?p_reference=20120024..LSCYYY.

The difference is due to the fact that IP-24 is a constitutional amendment while the Cannabis Tax Act is a statutory initiative and Oregon's signature requirement is based on a specific % of the vote cast in the previous gubernatorial election with a higher % requirement for initiatives that change the constitution: http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/Laws_governing_the_initiative_process_in_Oregon#Number_required

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There's a possibility both measures might appear on the ballot but I think IP-24 is more likely as they've already collected ~35k signatures and they started a few months ago while the Cannabis Tax Act initiative has ~42k signatures and they started in early-mid 2011. While I don't like putting things that should be statutory law in the state constitution, I think I will sign IP-24.

[greenforest32]

http://www.alternet.org/drugs/154468/4_marijuana_legalization_initiatives_race_against_the_clock_in_oregon

Talk about not being coordinated... Looks like 2 of those 4 are pretty much dead. The most likely two:

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[greenforest32]

http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-pot-initiatives-20120310,0,6630706.story

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[greenforest32]

http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-pot-initiatives-20120310,0,6630706.story

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As suspected, none of the initiatives met the signature deadline: http://blogs.sfweekly.com/thesnitch/2012/04/marijuana_legalization_efforts.php

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[greenforest32]

http://blog.norml.org/2012/05/05/connecticut-will-be-17th-state-to-legalize-medical-marijuana/

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Governor has said he will sign it I believe: http://www.boston.com/news/local/connecticut/articles/2012/05/05/conn_senate_passes_medical_marijuana_bill/

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Also:

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[greenforest32]

Looks like the Missouri legalization initiative has failed to get enough signatures: http://show-mecannabis.com/important-announcement-from-show-me-cannabis-regulations-board-of-directors-3/

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[greenforest32]

There's a possibility both measures might appear on the ballot but I think IP-24 is more likely as they've already collected ~35k signatures and they started a few months ago while the Cannabis Tax Act initiative has ~42k signatures and they started in early-mid 2011.

Looking likely they'll both make the ballot: http://www.salem-news.com/articles/may092012/legalization-initiatives-mb.php

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Our Attorney General race might have drawn more attention to the issue as Republicans did not field a candidate and one of the two Democrats running in the D primary is running as a "law and order" candidate: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/05/09/medical-marijuana-oregon-attorney-general-race_n_1503341.html

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Hopefully Holton loses: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=19eb906a-ae83-463b-9daa-3c3bda489d7d

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[greenforest32]

Hopefully Holton loses

About 80% of the vote counted and: http://oregonvotes.org/results/2012P/index.html

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[greenforest32]

Sweet. How well do you think the two initiatives will do in the general election?

If they both make the ballot, I think the measure that focuses on removing the penalties (IP-24) will do better than the one that proposes setting up a government controlled distribution system (Cannabis tax act) similar to our alcohol system which itself is not very popular (pretty sure voters would privatize the alcohol system like Washington recently did if there was an initiative that did this while being revenue neutral).

I'm thinking IP-24 could potentially pass in the low to mid 50s with the Cannabis Tax Act probably ranging around 35-45%.

[greenforest32]

Looking likely they'll both make the ballot

Yup

http://www.oregonlive.com/mapes/index.ssf/2012/05/two_pro-marijuana_initiatives.html

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IP-24:

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OCTA:

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I am not sure if Gov. Malloy has signed the CT bill yet into law, but assuming he does/has we can put CT up on the big board.

30% - Decriminalized
40% - Medicinal Cannabis allowed
70% - All of the Above

Kind of surprised Maryland and Illinois haven't done anything.

[greenforest32]

Greenforest, are you a pothead?

To be honest I've never actually tried it.

I do like to see government policy move in the right direction though

[greenforest32]

Pretty active year. Rhode Island likely to become the 15th state to decriminalize possession:

http://www.boston.com/news/local/rhode_island/articles/2012/06/08/ri_pot_decriminalization_bill_on_govs_desk/

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[greenforest32]

http://thinkprogress.org/justice/2012/06/13/498675/seven-more-states-may-legalize-medical-marijuana-in-2012/

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I don't see the Missouri, Pennsylvania, New York, and New Hampshire legislatures passing the bill/getting enough votes to override a veto. The Ohio and Massachusetts ballot measures are probably the best bet. Haven't heard much news about the Illinois legislative bill recently. Not sure how that's going to play out.

[greenforest32]

Pretty active year. Rhode Island likely to become the 15th state to decriminalize possession:

Yup, it's official: http://news.providencejournal.com/breaking-news/2012/06/ri-gov-chafee-s-6.html

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New York still looking doubtful: http://www.chicagotribune.com/sns-rt-usa-newyorkmarijuanal1e8hdkok-20120613,0,5467172.story

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[greenforest32]

So much for that: http://stopthedrugwar.org/chronicle/2012/jun/19/ny_gop_kills_marijuana_decrimina

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The Washington legalization initiative was polled again too. Polls so far:

The Elway Research (July 2011)[1] - 54% in favor, 43% opposed, 3% undecided
The Elway Research (January 2012)[1] - 48% in favor, 45% opposed, 7% undecided
Public Policy Polling (February 2012)[2] - 47% yes, 39% no, 15% not sure
Public Policy Polling (June 2012)[3] - 50% yes, 37% no, 12% not sure

[1] http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/Washington_Marijuana_Legalization_and_Regulation,_Initiative_502_%282012%29#Polls
[2] http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_WA_222.pdf
[3] http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_WA_619.pdf

[greenforest32]

Yesterday was the signature deadline for Oregon. It'll be a week or two before we know what measures qualified but it looks like IP-24 might not make the ballot after all because the SoS rejected a fairly high percentage of the signatures they turned in earlier. The Cannabis Tax Act has a better chance of making the ballot now I think.

http://news.opb.org/article/q-and-a-rundown-ballot-initiative-campaigns-turned-today/

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Also the NH legislature wasn't able to override the Governor's veto of the medical marijuana bill: http://blog.norml.org/2012/06/27/new-hampshire-senate-fails-to-override-governors-medical-marijuana-veto/

[greenforest32]

The New Jersey house passed a decriminalization measure and it's heading to the senate but Christie has vowed to veto: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/25/new-jersey-assembly-appro_n_1626147.html

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I don't think they'll be able to override the veto unfortunately.

Also, the Michigan legalization campaign ends without enough signatures: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/07/10/michigan-marijuana-legalization-amendment-campaign_n_1662449.html

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[greenforest32]

I don't see the Missouri, Pennsylvania, New York, and New Hampshire legislatures passing the bill/getting enough votes to override a veto. The Ohio and Massachusetts ballot measures are probably the best bet. Haven't heard much news about the Illinois legislative bill recently. Not sure how that's going to play out.

1. The Ohio medical marijuana measure didn't make the ballot: http://www.omca2012.org/home/june-announcement

2. The Massachusetts medical marijuana measure did: http://blog.norml.org/2012/07/10/massachusetts-medical-marijuana-initiative-approved-to-go-before-voters-in-november/

3. One of the Oregon legalization initiatives (Cannabis Tax Act) made the ballot while the other (IP-24) did not though they are suing over the methods used to disqualify many of the signatures[a]: http://www.oregonlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2012/07/marijuana_legalization_measure.html

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[a] http://www.oregonlive.com/mapes/index.ssf/2012/07/marijuana_petitioner_files_law.html

[greenforest32]

Unless the Nebraska legalization measure makes it (which seems unlikely), it looks like it's just going to be Washington, Oregon, and Colorado as the Montana legalization campaign ends without enough signatures: http://helenair.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/marijuana-legalization-anti-abortion-personhood-measures-fail-to-make-ballot/article_1cabe85c-d2f1-11e1-a312-001a4bcf887a.html

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http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/310104/drug-war-recedes-rich-lowry

A bit rich after saying he'll veto a simple decriminalization bill but I guess it's a move in the right direction.

[greenforest32]

A good breakdown of the WA/OR/CO initiatives: http://nationalcannabiscoalition.com/2012/07/comparing-marijuana-legalization-measures-in-oregon-colorado-and-washington-state/

In case you don't read the WA thread, SUSA says pot legalization is up 23 (yes, 23!) in Washington.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=2786ebbd-3348-4795-b0a8-0ee124a9707d

Good poll numbers for Washington. Looks to be the most favored to pass so far.

[greenforest32]

Oregon SoS says the other legalization initiative (IP-24) doesn't have enough signatures: https://twitter.com/oregonelections/status/228536743425630208

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Looks like Arkansas might have a medical marijuana initiative too: http://www.news-leader.com/viewart/20120706/NEWS07/307060083/Arkansas-medical-marijuana-backers-submit-petitions

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[greenforest32]

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2018898246_marijaunaofm11m.html

The state government estimates that legalizing marijuana could bring up to $1.9 billion in revenue to Washington over five years...

I wonder what makes the Washington measure worth so much more? The Oregon proposal claims to be about $120-150 million annually and the Colorado measure was just scored at a similar number ($60-100m / yr): http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/16/legalized-marijuana-could_n_1791448.html

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Also I missed the action in North Dakota. They might have a medical marijuana ballot initiative too: http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/ND-likely-to-debate-medical-marijuana-proposal-3766081.php

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