MI: PPP: Santorum leads Romney by 15%

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

If Romney doesn't carry Michigan, he's toast.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Database entry: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012R/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=2620120212108

[Likely Voter]

Looks like a new hole is in Rick's future, because Mitt is going to go medieval on him and rip him a new one.

[Torie]

If Romney doesn't carry Michigan, he's toast.

I doubt Mittens will carry Michigan, and I doubt he would be toast when he doesn't (particularly if he carries AZ while losing Michigan), so your hypothesis may well be tested.  MI and OH are not good places for Mitt. MI is kind of horrible for Mittens when you think about it. They may like Santorum's GATT breaking manufacturing industrial policy which is sort of a proxy appealing to those with protectionist impulses (Mittens is more laissez faire), and the Pubs are quite Catholic and Dutch, both groups with which Rick should do quite well. He's been sweeping the Dutch everywhere so far (check out the results in Marion, Sioux and Lyon Counties in Iowa). OH isn't much better. It's light on the Dutch, but has the Butternut region, and a fair number of Mennonites, along with the Catholics. Mittens' path to the nomination will need to come from the NE, the West, and more practical and hardbitten and less ideological places like Indiana and Illinois (with lots of higher income suburban white collar voters). Mittens is fortunate that the way delegates are awarded is skewed heavily in his favor overall.

[greenforest32]

Yes

[Mr. Morden]

I'd like to see more polling here before believing that Santorum is really up this much, given that PPP also sees Santorum way up nationally and Gallup doesn't.  Is PPP seeing Santorum surge much more than he really is, or is it real?

[Wisconsin+17]

Mitt minus MI and PA - the NE + West coast + FL isn't enough to outright win the nomination.

Romney needs two of the following: WI, IL, MI, OH, IN, PA, VA.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Mitt minus MI and PA - the NE + West coast + FL isn't enough to outright win the nomination.

Romney needs two of the following: WI, IL, MI, OH, IN, PA, VA.

Well he'll easily carry Virginia.

[Wisconsin+17]

If he loses in MI? Things might change again.

[NHI]

This is like what happened after Newt won South Carolina. I'm confident Romney will win Michigan.

[CLARENCE 2015!]

If Romney doesn't carry Michigan, he's toast.

I doubt Mittens will carry Michigan, and I doubt he would be toast when he doesn't (particularly if he carries AZ while losing Michigan), so your hypothesis may well be tested.   MI and OH are not good places for Mitt. MI is kind of horrible for Mittens when you think about it. They may like Santorum's GATT breaking manufacturing industrial policy which is sort of a proxy appealing to those with protectionist impulses (Mittens is more laissez faire), and the Pubs are quite Catholic and Dutch, both groups with which Rick should do quite well. He's been sweeping the Dutch everywhere so far (check out the results in Marion, Sioux and Lyon Counties in Iowa). OH isn't much better. It's light on the Dutch, but has the Butternut region, and a fair number of Mennonites, along with the Catholics. Mittens' path to the nomination will need to come from the NE, the West, and more practical and hardbitten and less ideological places like Indiana and Illinois (with lots of higher income suburban white collar voters). Mittens is fortunate that the way delegates are awarded is skewed heavily in his favor overall.

So what makes you think Mitt is electable? If he has issues with Ohio he won't win the White House...

[Torie]

If Romney doesn't carry Michigan, he's toast.

I doubt Mittens will carry Michigan, and I doubt he would be toast when he doesn't (particularly if he carries AZ while losing Michigan), so your hypothesis may well be tested.   MI and OH are not good places for Mitt. MI is kind of horrible for Mittens when you think about it. They may like Santorum's GATT breaking manufacturing industrial policy which is sort of a proxy appealing to those with protectionist impulses (Mittens is more laissez faire), and the Pubs are quite Catholic and Dutch, both groups with which Rick should do quite well. He's been sweeping the Dutch everywhere so far (check out the results in Marion, Sioux and Lyon Counties in Iowa). OH isn't much better. It's light on the Dutch, but has the Butternut region, and a fair number of Mennonites, along with the Catholics. Mittens' path to the nomination will need to come from the NE, the West, and more practical and hardbitten and less ideological places like Indiana and Illinois (with lots of higher income suburban white collar voters). Mittens is fortunate that the way delegates are awarded is skewed heavily in his favor overall.

So what makes you think Mitt is electable? If he has issues with Ohio he won't win the White House...

Primaries are very different beasts from General elections.

[Nhoj]

If he loses in MI? Things might change again.

its doubtful paul could actually beat him there being as hes the only other person on the ballot in VA.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

If Romney doesn't win both MI and Ohio, he is in trouble. If he looses both, it is hard to see how he becomes the nominee.


@Torie
Romney can't keep running away from adversarial demographics. He has to find a way to get these people to want to vote for him, or he is finished.

[Averroës Nix]

If Romney doesn't win both MI and Ohio, he is in trouble. If he looses both, it is hard to see how he becomes the nominee.

I think the most likely outcome in this case, barring a total Mittplosion, is that Romney wins the nomination via delegate math despite losing most states and falling short in the national popular vote.

[Eraserhead]

It's about time they finally released this poll, it feels like they teased it forever. I'm not sure if I buy Santorum doing better with Democrats/Independents than registered Republicans though.

If Romney doesn't win both MI and Ohio, he is in trouble. If he looses both, it is hard to see how he becomes the nominee.

Talk to Barack Obama.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Ok, Newt. You get the picture yet?

Newt still has a chance in Georgia.  In person early voting started there today, and that by mail started a couple weeks ago.  If Rick can beat Newt in Georgia, I expect Newt to exit the race.  I wish he would exit sooner.  I can't see him making another comeback, so staying in only helps Romney while hurting the already slim GOP prospects in the fall.

[Svensson]

You know what? I hope Santorum wins. Even though I support him, I'll freely admit that Paul doesn't have a chance in flip, and Gingrich is so far past his expiration date it's not even funny, so the least the Republican Party can do is nominate someone who isn't an opportunistic shrew. Plus, hey, Santorum provides unintentional comedy by the day and is, frankly, far less superficial than Mitt-3PO.

[Wisconsin+17]

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FTFY.

[Tender Branson]

Rasmussen will release a new MI poll today.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Rasmussen will release a new MI poll today.

[Awaits eagarly]