Cardiff South & Penarth by-election
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Author Topic: Cardiff South & Penarth by-election  (Read 1704 times)
Filuwaúrdjan
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« on: July 15, 2012, 08:10:29 PM »
Caused by the resignation (at some point in the near future) of Alun Michael who is to be the Labour candidate for South Wales Police Commissioner. Michael had held the constituency since 1987, the constituency having previously been represented (in one form or another) by James Callaghan for over forty years. A proper profile and all that will be up at some point when I have time, but it's enough (for now) to say that this is proletarian South Cardiff plus the odd seaside town-cum-suburb of Penarth (and now a little beyond), that Michael's majority in 2010 was about 10pts, and that Labour held the Assembly seat by miles in 2011. Labour councillors now represent all but two wards (both at the Penarth end) of the constituency.

But there are candidates nominated.

Labour have picked Stephen Doughty, who is currently the head of Oxfam Cymru.

The LibDems have picked Dr Bablin Molik (a researcher, I think a medical researcher, at Cardiff uni) and Plaid have picked Luke Nicholas who works for their group in the Assembly.

No one from the Tories yet.

Etc.
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Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
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« Reply #1 on: July 15, 2012, 08:20:07 PM »
I suppose the only question is whether Labour get a majority.
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change08
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« Reply #2 on: July 15, 2012, 09:04:17 PM »
Quote from: Mitt Montgomery Burns on July 15, 2012, 08:20:07 PM
I suppose the only question is whether Labour get a majority.

They will do, and then some.
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doktorb
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« Reply #3 on: October 23, 2012, 02:22:15 AM »
"22 October 2012 11:55
The Chancellor of the Exchequer has this day appointed Alun Edward Michael to be Steward and Bailiff of the Three Hundreds of Chiltern."


Candidates thus far intending to stand are:

Stephen DOUGHTY (Labour)
Robert GRIFFITHS (Communist)
Andrew JORDAN (Socialist Labour)
Bablin MOLIK (Liberal Democrat)
Luke NICHOLAS (Plaid Cymru)
Anthony SLAUGHTER (Green)
Craig WILLIAMS (Conservative)
Simon ZEIGLER (UKIP)
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Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends
Anton Kreitzer
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« Reply #4 on: October 23, 2012, 03:11:26 AM »
They won't win, but I'll be interested to see how UKIP do.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #5 on: October 23, 2012, 01:10:21 PM »
Middle-class non-rightwing protest voters. Vaguely.
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Andrew1
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« Reply #6 on: October 23, 2012, 05:51:11 PM »
Plaid also had quite a bit of support in the Asian community but I suspect much of that has gone back to Labour now.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #7 on: October 23, 2012, 06:07:51 PM »
Quote from: Ethelberth on October 23, 2012, 08:17:46 AM
What kind of people vote Plaid in Cardiff.

PC is a rural party I take it?
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doktorb
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« Reply #8 on: October 23, 2012, 06:11:47 PM »

Predominately rural, predominately for yr iaith Gymraeg
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #9 on: October 24, 2012, 01:32:14 PM »
« Edited: October 24, 2012, 01:33:46 PM by Minion of Midas »
Quote from: doktorb on October 23, 2012, 06:11:47 PM

Predominately rural, predominately for yr iaith Gymraeg
It's not really predominantly rural within English-speaking Wales. Not unless the Valleys are considered as rural as the empty parts of east Wales.
It's not *particularly strongly* predominantly rural within A Fro Gymraeg either. It's just that that is a predominantly (not entirely) rural area.

Where do I have that map Al made us... ah.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #10 on: October 24, 2012, 02:14:32 PM »
The interesting thing about Plaid is that the correlation between language and Plaid support which is so striking when things are looked at from an all-Wales perspective is not so strong inside (most) individual areas.
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YL
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« Reply #11 on: November 01, 2012, 07:02:37 AM »
Quote from: doktorb on October 23, 2012, 02:22:15 AM
Candidates thus far intending to stand are:

Stephen DOUGHTY (Labour)
Robert GRIFFITHS (Communist)
Andrew JORDAN (Socialist Labour)
Bablin MOLIK (Liberal Democrat)
Luke NICHOLAS (Plaid Cymru)
Anthony SLAUGHTER (Green)
Craig WILLIAMS (Conservative)
Simon ZEIGLER (UKIP)

The list is out, and is as above.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #12 on: November 15, 2012, 06:12:36 PM »
Some people are doing a liveblog thingy. Recent posts of interest:

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MaxQue
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« Reply #13 on: November 15, 2012, 06:14:43 PM »
Are poll workers paid in UK?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #14 on: November 15, 2012, 08:52:09 PM »
Turnout: 25.3% - official.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #15 on: November 15, 2012, 09:45:41 PM »
Result soon, apparently.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #16 on: November 15, 2012, 09:47:19 PM »

Which can mean anything from ten minutes to two hours.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #17 on: November 15, 2012, 10:09:43 PM »
Labour hold
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #18 on: November 15, 2012, 10:18:07 PM »
Labour 47%, Con 19%, LDem 11%, Plaid 9%, UKIP 6%, Green 4%, SLP 1%, Commie 1%

Labour majority of 5,334 (27.4%)

Or something like that, anyway.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #19 on: November 15, 2012, 10:23:44 PM »
Lab 47.30 (+8.39)
Con 19.85 (-8.44)
Lib Dem 10.82 (-11.44)
PC 9.54 (+5.37)
UKIP 6.07 (+3.49)
Green 4.12 (+2.87)
Soc Lab 1.21 (+1.21)
Comm 1.10 (+0.65)
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Andrea
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« Reply #20 on: November 17, 2012, 05:06:12 AM »
Unspectacular result in a constituency which seems to often offer unspectacular results (even 1997 anything special)
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Anton Kreitzer
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« Reply #21 on: November 17, 2012, 09:49:35 AM »
Quote from: ObserverIE on November 15, 2012, 10:23:44 PM
Lab 47.30 (+8.39)
Con 19.85 (-8.44)
Lib Dem 10.82 (-11.44)
PC 9.54 (+5.37)
UKIP 6.07 (+3.49)
Green 4.12 (+2.87)
Soc Lab 1.21 (+1.21)
Comm 1.10 (+0.65)



Good to see UKIP keeping their deposit!
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doktorb
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« Reply #22 on: November 20, 2012, 02:11:06 AM »

And still the BBC missed it!
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doktorb
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« Reply #23 on: November 20, 2012, 02:24:54 AM »
Results from 1983-2012
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