Police Commisioner Elections : November 2012

[Harry Hayfield]

I would like to know (as candidates are starting to declare themselves for these elections) if I may be permitted to generate a map for the elections and the results (were suited) based on the 2010 general and 2011 devolved assembly elections as a base for the elections come November?

[Harry Hayfield]

Police areas in England and Wales are still largely based on the 1974 patterns of local government.  Here's a list of the areas having elections:

Northumbria - Northumberland; Tyne & Wear
Durham - includes Darlington but not the "Cleveland" unitaries
Cleveland - Stockton, Hartlepool, Middlesbrough, Redcar & Cleveland
Cumbria
Lancashire - includes the 1990s unitaries of Blackpool and Blackburn with Darwen
Merseyside
Greater Manchester
North Yorkshire - includes York
Humberside - the East Riding including Hull, N Lincs, NE Lincs
West Yorkshire
South Yorkshire
Derbyshire - includes the City of Derby
Nottinghamshire - includes the City of Nottingham
Lincolnshire - just the County Council area
Leicestershire - includes Rutland and the City of Leicester
Cheshire - Cheshire East, Cheshire West & Chester, Halton, Warrington
Staffordshire - includes Stoke
West Midlands - the Metropolitan County
West Mercia - Shropshire including Telford & Wrekin, Herefordshire, Worcestershire
Warwickshire
Northamptonshire
Norfolk
Suffolk
Cambridgeshire - includes Peterborough
Essex - includes Thurrock and Southend
Bedfordshire - Bedford, Central Beds, Luton
Hertfordshire
Thames Valley - Oxfordshire, Buckinghamshire including Milton Keynes, the Berkshire unitaries
Gloucestershire - excludes South Glos
Avon & Somerset - Somerset, B&NES, North Somerset, Bristol, South Glos
Devon & Cornwall - includes the Plymouth and Torbay unitaries
Wiltshire - includes Swindon
Dorset - includes the Poole and Bournemouth unitaries
Hampshire - includes the Portsmouth and Southampton unitaries and the Isle of Wight
Surrey
Sussex - both East and West, and Brighton & Hove
Kent - includes the Medway unitary

South Wales - Cardiff, Swansea, Vale of Glamorgan, Neath Port Talbot, Rhondda Cynon Taff, Bridgend, Merthyr Tydfil
Gwent - Monmouthshire, Newport, Torfaen, Blaenau Gwent, Caerphilly
Dyfed-Powys - Powys, Ceredigion, Carmarthenshire, Pembrokeshire
North Wales - Flintshire, Wrexham, Denbighshire, Conwy, Gwynedd, Ynys Môn

So does that mean I may be permitted or not?

[Harry Hayfield]

Alun Michael wants to stand for Labour in South Wales (so that's a partisan election in South Wales)

[Harry Hayfield]

The way things are going in Dyfed Powys Nicholas Bourne (Con) Christine Gwyther (Lab) Helen Mary Jones (Plaid) James Adams (Ind) I am getting more and more tempted to cast the ultimate spolit ballot

First Preference: Adams 4 Bourne 4 Gwyther 4 Mary Jones 4
Second Preference: Adams 4 Bourne 4 Gwyther 4 Mary Jones 4

In other words, these elections should be scrapped the whole leglisation reviewed in Parliament as soon as possible

[Harry Hayfield]

News from the Electoral Commission that might be of interest. The count will be a dual count (i.e like the European Elections) which each local authority announcing full first and second preference counts at their local count centres as well as the regional count centre. Here in Dyfed Powys, that means there will be counts held at Aberaeron (Ceredigion), Llanelli (Carmarthenshire) and Welshpool (Powys) with the head count being organised by Pembrokeshire (and so will be held at Haverfordwest). As the Lib Dems seem highly unlikely to field a candidate, I have filled in an oberserver application form in the hope of going along (if my sciatica has cleared up by then) and hopefully blogging / tweeting the results live

[Harry Hayfield]

Does anyone have any idea what the most detailed geographical breakdown we may be able to get of the results will be?

The Electoral Commission's website has a spreadsheet that shows all the verification and counting times and I get the impression the lowest level will be local authority (although that said for Birmingham it says that the verification will be held in "19 different venues across Birmingham") so whether Birmingham is doing it on constituency or not I cannot say.

[Harry Hayfield]

Statements of Persons Nominated emerged so far
Today was the deadline to submit nominations.
Statements of persons nominated published so far point towards the following picture:

Dyfed-Powys: Lab/Con
Kent: Ind/Ind/Con/EngDem/UKIP/Lab
West Mercia: Con/Ind/Lab
Warwickshire: Ind/Con/Lab
South Yorkshire: EngDem/UKIP/Con/LD/Lab
South Wales: Ind/Con/Lab/Ind
Leicestershire: Con/Ind/Lab
Whiltshire: LD/Con/Lab/UKIP/Ind/ind
Dorset: LD/Con/Lab/Ind
Gwent: Ind/Lab/Con/Ind
Thames Valley: Ind/UKIp/Ind/LD/Con/Lab
Surrey: Lab/Zero Tolerance Policing ex Chief/Con/LD/UKIP/Ind
Northamptonshire: Lab/UKIP/Ind/Con/LD
Cheshire: LD/UKIP/Con/Ind/Lab
Hampshire: LD/Ind/Justice and Anti-Corruption Party/Con/Lab/UKIP
Sussex: UKIP/Con/Ind/Lab/LD
West Midlands: Con/UKIP/Ind/Lab/LD/Ind/Ind
West Yorkshire: Lab/Con/Ind/LD
Cleveland: Ind/Lab/Con/Green
Cambridgeshire: Ind/Con/UKIP/EngDem/Ind/LD/Lab
Essex: Con/Ind/Lab/UKIP/Ind/EngDem
North Wales: Ind/Con/Lab/UKIP/Ind
Derbyshire: Lab/UKIP/Ind/Con/Ind
Nottinghamshire: Ind/Con/Ind/Lab
Bedfordshire: British Freedom Party/LD/Lab/Con/Ind
Lancashire: LD/Con/UKIP/Lab
Humberside: UKIP/LD/Ind/Ind/Con/Lab/Ind
Cumbria: LD/Lab/Con/Ind
Greater Manchester: LD/Lab/Ind/Con/UKIP
Northumbria: LD/Lab/UKIP/Con
Devon and Cornwall: LD/Ind/Ind/Con/Ind/Ind/Ind/Ind/UKIP/Lab
Merseyside: Con/UKIP/LD/Lab/Ind/EngDem

That's very helpful indeed thanks Andrea. That means we have candidates from Con, Lab, Lib Dem, Green, UKIP, English Democrats and a myriad of Independents. What we don't have is the SNP (for obvious reasons), the BNP (again for obvious reasons) but perhaps rather more mysterious is the absence of Plaid. Based on the Assembly elections, they would have had a very good chance in both North Wales and Dyfed Powys. Can anyone shed any light on that mystery?

[Harry Hayfield]

On Twitter this evening Vaughan Roderick (BBC Cymru Welsh politics expert) said that he expects somewhere in Wales to set a new low turnout record (currently at 9%). If one place were to break that then Ceredigion would be a prime candidate. In the local elections there were just 2,000 Con and Lab votes (out of an electorate of 64,000).

[Harry Hayfield]

I was the 24th voter at around midday (which led me to project a 9% turnout at the end of the day). Our polling station is roughly average for Ceredigion (so it's not looking promising)

[Harry Hayfield]

Sussex results are reported by Local Authority (via the Brighton & Hove City Council website). Does anyone know of any others doing so? If so I can make a map..

I'm gathering that data as we speak (currently up to 84 out of 315). When I have all 315 I shall be more than happy to send it to you.

[Harry Hayfield]

As I mentioned earlier I am trying my best to tally the local area results but it is being hindered by a local of the PARO (police area returning officers) only publishing the area counts not the local area counts (and who has the time and effort to visit all 315 council websites to do it). I'm on about 120 local areas so far bu at this rate it's going to take as long as it will take the US states to certify their results.

[Harry Hayfield]

Sussex results are reported by Local Authority (via the Brighton & Hove City Council website). Does anyone know of any others doing so? If so I can make a map..

I'm gathering that data as we speak (currently up to 84 out of 315). When I have all 315 I shall be more than happy to send it to you.

Thanks Harry yes please do - and I'll be more than happy to produce a map! I believe you have my email address from before but if not I'll PM it to you.

Currently up to 121 at the moment. I think I do, but have changed e-mail packages so a PM might be a good idea

[Harry Hayfield]

Local Area Results Tallied: 145
Local Area Results with Electorates: 69
PCC Area Results Tallied: 15

[Harry Hayfield]

I've also seen  1 prefs results from Liverpool, Wirral, Sefton, Blackpool, Pendle, Wyre, South Ribble, Ribble Valley, Blackburn, Chorley, Stoke, Cannock Chase, Newcaslte under Lyme, Staffs Moorlands, South Staffordshire, Newport, Blaenau Gwent, Torfaen, Caerphilly.

Do you need any of them?

YES PLEASE!!!

[Harry Hayfield]

Thank you very much indeed for those.

[Harry Hayfield]

Thanks for that Liam, that brings the tally up to 207 (108 to go)

As things stand I have no results from: Cleveland, Derbyshire, Devon and Cornwall, Dorset, Greater Manchester, Hertfordshire, Humberside, Norfolk, Northamptonshire, South Wales, South Yorkshire, Warwickshire, West Mercia and West Yorkshire.

Then after that there are a couple of local results I am missing from some police force areas and then comes the tricky question of electorates.