Police Commisioner Elections : November 2012

[YL]

Police areas in England and Wales are still largely based on the 1974 patterns of local government.  Here's a list of the areas having elections:

Northumbria - Northumberland; Tyne & Wear
Durham - includes Darlington but not the "Cleveland" unitaries
Cleveland - Stockton, Hartlepool, Middlesbrough, Redcar & Cleveland
Cumbria
Lancashire - includes the 1990s unitaries of Blackpool and Blackburn with Darwen
Merseyside
Greater Manchester
North Yorkshire - includes York
Humberside - the East Riding including Hull, N Lincs, NE Lincs
West Yorkshire
South Yorkshire
Derbyshire - includes the City of Derby
Nottinghamshire - includes the City of Nottingham
Lincolnshire - just the County Council area
Leicestershire - includes Rutland and the City of Leicester
Cheshire - Cheshire East, Cheshire West & Chester, Halton, Warrington
Staffordshire - includes Stoke
West Midlands - the Metropolitan County
West Mercia - Shropshire including Telford & Wrekin, Herefordshire, Worcestershire
Warwickshire
Northamptonshire
Norfolk
Suffolk
Cambridgeshire - includes Peterborough
Essex - includes Thurrock and Southend
Bedfordshire - Bedford, Central Beds, Luton
Hertfordshire
Thames Valley - Oxfordshire, Buckinghamshire including Milton Keynes, the Berkshire unitaries
Gloucestershire - excludes South Glos
Avon & Somerset - Somerset, B&NES, North Somerset, Bristol, South Glos
Devon & Cornwall - includes the Plymouth and Torbay unitaries
Wiltshire - includes Swindon
Dorset - includes the Poole and Bournemouth unitaries
Hampshire - includes the Portsmouth and Southampton unitaries and the Isle of Wight
Surrey
Sussex - both East and West, and Brighton & Hove
Kent - includes the Medway unitary

South Wales - Cardiff, Swansea, Vale of Glamorgan, Neath Port Talbot, Rhondda Cynon Taff, Bridgend, Merthyr Tydfil
Gwent - Monmouthshire, Newport, Torfaen, Blaenau Gwent, Caerphilly
Dyfed-Powys - Powys, Ceredigion, Carmarthenshire, Pembrokeshire
North Wales - Flintshire, Wrexham, Denbighshire, Conwy, Gwynedd, Ynys Môn

[YL]

So, just how bad do people think the turnout will be for these?

I'm also tempted to speculate on which police area elects the craziest Commissioner...

[YL]

One person trying to get the Labour nomination in South Yorkshire (where you have to assume that the Labour nomination is a pretty good start at winning the election) is former Chief Constable of the force Meredydd Hughes.

[YL]

Tony Lloyd selected as Labour candidate for Greater Manchester:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-17416309

Does he have to stand down as an MP to stand or only if he wins?

[YL]

I think Labour NEC (actually one of its subcommittees) decided last week that their MPs selected as PC (or Mayoral) candidates will have to stand down before the election

OK, so we have a Manchester Central by-election to look forward to.  My guess would be that Labour's plan will be to hold it on the same day as the Police Commissioner election in November.

[YL]

The Police Foundation has a list of speculated/confirmed/shortlisted candidates:
http://www.police-foundation.org.uk/files/POLICE0001/policy%20work/PCC%20candidates.pdf

The information seems most comprehensive about Labour.  I presume we will actually have non-Labour candidates in South Yorks, though whether there are any who are more than paper candidates remains to be seen.

[YL]

The Labour candidate in Avon and Somerset has been forced to withdraw because of two minor offences he was convicted of at the age of 13, 46 years ago.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/aug/08/bob-ashford-labour-police-commissioner

[YL]

Asil Nadir has been found guilty. This has interesting implications for the election in Hampshire...

how exactly?

The Tory candidate, former MP Michael Mates, has some history there.

[YL]

South Yorkshire: EngDem/UKIP/Con/LD/Lab

Ugh.  I have a particular dislike for the English Democrats, and a sort of paranoid fear involving  them and low turnout SV elections.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Is that the registered description of a political party?

[YL]

Some discussion of possible results on LabourList

From that article, just based on 2010 results, Labour would have won Merseyside, South Wales, Gwent, Greater Manchester, Cleveland, West Midlands, West Yorkshire, North Wales, Nottinghamshire, Durham, Northumbria and South Yorkshire, the Lib Dems would have won Avon & Somerset, and the Tories everywhere else.

If the turnout is as low as some people are suggesting (there's a suggestion that it could be as low as 10%, which sounds like expectation management to me) then I suppose other elections in some areas could cause differential turnout effects on the results, e.g. the Bristol mayoral election in Avon & Somerset and the Corby by-election in Northants.  Both of those would tend to help Labour, though they might need a lot of helping in both cases.

[YL]

Anyone who even tries to use these results to weigh up 2015 is insane.

... or a hack for whichever party the results make look good.

[YL]

There are candidate statements on http://www.choosemypcc.org.uk/

I haven't found any obvious nutters among the Independents yet, but I haven't looked very hard.

[YL]

Time for a bit of nose holding, I think.

[YL]

Just voted. Only one other voter in the station (while I was there), who seemed to be confused about the voting system.

There was another voter in your polling station? Remarkable.

There were actually two in mine when I voted this morning, though it looked deserted when I walked past just now.  From a quick glance at the sheet it looked like early turnout was worse than for a normal local election but not completely horrendous.  (This is a fairly high turnout area.)

[YL]

Wiltshire was the only area to count overnight. The Tory won fairly easily, but turnout was under 16%.  I'd have thought that would have been one of the higher ones; what's Merseyside going to be?

[YL]

Results (Devon & Cornwall now in).  Turnout embarrassingly low of course.

Northumbria - Labour
Durham - Labour
Cleveland - Labour
Cumbria - Tory
Lancashire - Labour
Merseyside - Labour
Greater Manchester - Labour
North Yorkshire - Tory
Humberside - Tory; Prescott lost.
West Yorkshire - Labour
South Yorkshire - Labour
Derbyshire - Labour
Nottinghamshire - Labour (ex MP Paddy Tipping)
Lincolnshire - Independent
Leicestershire - Tory
Cheshire - Tory
Staffordshire - Tory
West Midlands - Labour
West Mercia - Independent
Warwickshire - Independent
Northamptonshire - Tory
Norfolk - Independent
Suffolk - Tory
Cambridgeshire - Tory
Essex - Tory
Bedfordshire - Labour
Hertfordshire - Tory
Thames Valley - Tory
Gloucestershire - Independent
Avon & Somerset - Independent
Devon & Cornwall - Tory
Wiltshire - Tory
Dorset - Independent
Hampshire - Independent; Michael Mates lost.
Surrey - Zero Tolerance
Sussex - Tory
Kent - Independent

South Wales - Labour
Gwent - Independent
Dyfed-Powys - Tory
North Wales - Independent

[YL]

Highest turnout seems to have been Northamptonshire (for obvious reasons) with 20%, followed by Humberside (perhaps Tories turned out to vote against Prescott?).  Lowest seems to have been Staffordshire with 11.6%.

(Based on BBC figures)

[YL]

So basically independents and Tories win in Tory areas and Labour win in Labour areas with Humberside ('it lives'!) and Dyfed/Powys being curious.

The East Riding unitary is very Tory, and turnout there was high not quite as ridiculously low as in most other places.  As I said I suspect Labour's choice of candidate may have motivated Tories more than their own supporters there.  (And the area voted Tory in 2010.)

Dyfed/Powys was actually Lib Dem based on 2010 results IIRC, but they didn't stand.  I don't find that result particularly surprising given it was Lab v Con.

As well as H*mb*rs*d*, Cumbria and Staffordshire look a bit disappointing for Labour, but Bedfordshire was good for them.

Apparently the winning Independent in North Wales is a Lib Dem member.  I fear some of the other Independents will turn out to be crazy, having managed to get elected on the votes of people who think that voting for an Independent is a good way of expressing the view that the police shouldn't be politicised.

[YL]

Here's SV in action in Devon & Cornwall.

First round:
Con 55,527
Ind G 24,719
Lab 24,196
LD 23,948
UKIP 16,433
Ind J 12,382
Ind Mo 10,586
Ind S 10,171
Ind C 8,667
Ind Mc 4,306

So at this point everybody but Greenslade and the Tory gets eliminated, and the second preferences of anybody who didn't have one of those in the top two are ignored.

Second round:
Con 69,419
Ind G 37,243

I make that 44% of votes (of those which counted in the first round) not counting in the second round.