Police Commisioner Elections : November 2012

[Andrea]

It seems the Conservatives have attracted around 220 applications so far.
http://alturl.com/erwyd
As for the main theme of that article, I am not sure what kind of candidates they exepected to attract!

Other than Alun Michael in Wales, another sitting Labour MP who is trying to get the party nomination is Tony Llody in Greater Manchester.
Labour also have a series of former MPs who applied for selection: John Presccot (well, I know you know him), Jane Kennedy (Liverpool Wavertree 1992-2010), Peter Kilfoyle (Liverpool Walton 1991-2010), Paddy Tipping (Sherwood 1992-2010), James Plaskitt (Warwick and Leamington 1997-2010) and Ian Cawsey (Brigg & Goole 1997-2010) .
There were rumours Vera Baird (the one who lost Redcar in 2010 GE) is considering running in Northumbria selection.

[Andrea]

Are Labour holding primaries or just normal selections?

I think normal selections.
They have apparently received around 150 applications overall. A NEC panel will draw up shortlists and then postal ballot papers will be sent out along with internal elections (NEC/NPF) papers in June.

[Andrea]

I think Labour NEC (actually one of its subcommittees) decided last week that their MPs selected as PC (or Mayoral) candidates will have to stand down before the election

[Andrea]

Just voted online, forgot today was the ballot deadline!

Voted for Jane Kennedy, not that i'm enthusiastic for either candidate. I'll be living at uni in November anyway.

I think they moved the deadline to Friday (at least they did it for NEC/NPF elections). LabourList thinks PC results will be available on Sunday (they will be announced by the regional parties, so they won't pop up all together at the same time).

[Andrea]

First Tory candidates being selected this weekend

Avon & Somerset: Ken Maddock (former Somerset Council Leader)
Warwickshire: Fraser Pithi (a former special constable and county councillor)
Northamptonshire: Adam Simmonds (a county council officer)

Hampshire final 2: former MP Michael Mates and Portsmouth Cllr Donna Jones

[Andrea]

One person trying to get the Labour nomination in South Yorkshire (where you have to assume that the Labour nomination is a pretty good start at winning the election) is former Chief Constable of the force Meredydd Hughes.

Rotherham Cllr Shaun Wright has won Labour nomination today.
Harriet Yeo (Ashford Cllr/NEC member in the trade union section) has won the Kent selection

[Andrea]

Labour selection results

Avon and Somerset: Ashford 891 Savage 505

Bedfordshire: Martins 511 Heffernan 190   
          
Cambridgeshire: Ed Murphy 265 Rogers 241    

Cheshire: Stockton 471 Carter 375
     
Cleveland: Coppinger 523 Brash 157

Cumbria: Leonard 225 Boaden 190

Derbyshire: Charles 695 Dhindsa 365 Salt 133

Devon and Cornwall: Nicky Williams 591 Canavan 312
     
Dyfed Powys: Christine Gwyther unopposed   

Dorset: Rachel Rogers unopposed

Durham       
Round 1: Hogg 423 Dixon 330 Thompson 311       
Round 2: Hogg 536 Dixon 427    

Essex: Cook 449 Newell 355        

Gloucestershire: Rupi Dhanda unopposed
          
Greater Manchester: Lloyd unopposed
       
Gwent: Sandison 494 Worrad 306

Hampshire: Rayment 576 Hagger 335         

Hertfordshire: Sherma Batson unopposed   

Humberside: Prescott 552 Hunter 458

Kent: Yeo 711 Bates 241     

Lancashire
Round 1:  Grunshaw 820 Master 532 Atkinson 342
Round 2: Grunshaw 966 Master 663
Leicestershire: Sarah Russel unopposed

Lincolnshire: Dilks 218 Gleeson 97

Merseyside         
Round 1: Kennedy 892 Kilfoyle 745 Weightman 254
Round 2: Kennedy 974 Kilfoyle 833

Norfolk: Morphew 337 Burke 232         

Northamptonshire: Barron 212 Caseman-Jones 176

Northumbria: Baird 1921 Foster 635   
   
North Wales: Tal Michael 548 Hanson 276     

North Yorkshire: Ruth Potter unopposed

Nottinghamshire:Tipping 892 Mohammed 841

Surrey: Robert Evans unopposed     
          
Sussex: Daniel 679 Richards 554         

Staffordshire: Garner 402 votes Poulter 351   

South Wales: Alun Michael 1142 Cannon 1058  

South Yorkshire
Round 1 Wright 972 Walaya 622 Billings 461 Hughes 382
Round 2 Wright 116 Walays 671 Billings 592
Round 3 Wright 1353 Walaya 861

Suffolk: Jane Basham unopposed
       
Thames Valley: Starkey 614 Harvey 590   
   
Warwickshire: Plaskitt 291 Edwards 102
   
West Mercia: Simon Murphy unopposed
      
West Midlands: Jones 1580 Mosquito 827

West Yorkshire: Mark Burns Williamson unopposed

Wiltshire: Clare Moody unopposed

[Andrea]

All Labour results now in.

It was much closer for Michael Sr than Michael Jr.
Former MPs trying a comeback: Prescott, Jane Kennedy (who beated Peter Kilfoyle), Vera Baird (the Redcar one), Paddy Tipping (close result in Nottinghamshire), James Plaskitt.
2 sitting MPs going for it: Alun Michael and Tony Lloyd.

Women in winnable areas: Jane Kennedy, Sarah Russell, Vera Baird..and I think that's it. Ken may be a step still too far for Labour.

Some were a bit surprised by Jones beating Mosquito in West Midlands but I think she got very few votes outside Birmingham and I wouldn't be surprised if not all Birmingham communities supported her.

[Andrea]

former MP Michael Mates

Srsly?

and won selection

[Andrea]

An end of Summer recap...

Lab candidate in Avon & Somerset withdraws because of a minor offence he committed 45 years ago.
Lab candidate in Derbyshire withdraws because of a minor offence he committed 47 years ago. However it's then established that said minor offence wasn't worthy of a disqualification and so he's back in the race.
Con candidate in Cambridgeshire withdraws because he's not a party member and some local party activists wanted him to join the party
Con candidate in Nottinghamshire withdraws  because of a minor offence he committed 44 years ago.

There's still lots of time until November....

[Andrea]

Statements of Persons Nominated emerged so far
Today was the deadline to submit nominations.
Statements of persons nominated published so far point towards the following picture:

Dyfed-Powys: Lab/Con
Kent: Ind/Ind/Con/EngDem/UKIP/Lab
West Mercia: Con/Ind/Lab
Warwickshire: Ind/Con/Lab
South Yorkshire: EngDem/UKIP/Con/LD/Lab
South Wales: Ind/Con/Lab/Ind
Leicestershire: Con/Ind/Lab
Whiltshire: LD/Con/Lab/UKIP/Ind/ind
Dorset: LD/Con/Lab/Ind
Gwent: Ind/Lab/Con/Ind
Thames Valley: Ind/UKIp/Ind/LD/Con/Lab
Surrey: Lab/Zero Tolerance Policing ex Chief/Con/LD/UKIP/Ind
Northamptonshire: Lab/UKIP/Ind/Con/LD
Cheshire: LD/UKIP/Con/Ind/Lab
Hampshire: LD/Ind/Justice and Anti-Corruption Party/Con/Lab/UKIP
Sussex: UKIP/Con/Ind/Lab/LD
West Midlands: Con/UKIP/Ind/Lab/LD/Ind/Ind
West Yorkshire: Lab/Con/Ind/LD
Cleveland: Ind/Lab/Con/Green
Cambridgeshire: Ind/Con/UKIP/EngDem/Ind/LD/Lab
Essex: Con/Ind/Lab/UKIP/Ind/EngDem
North Wales: Ind/Con/Lab/UKIP/Ind
Derbyshire: Lab/UKIP/Ind/Con/Ind
Nottinghamshire: Ind/Con/Ind/Lab
Bedfordshire: British Freedom Party/LD/Lab/Con/Ind
Lancashire: LD/Con/UKIP/Lab
Humberside: UKIP/LD/Ind/Ind/Con/Lab/Ind
Cumbria: LD/Lab/Con/Ind
Greater Manchester: LD/Lab/Ind/Con/UKIP
Northumbria: LD/Lab/UKIP/Con
Devon and Cornwall: LD/Ind/Ind/Con/Ind/Ind/Ind/Ind/UKIP/Lab
Merseyside: Con/UKIP/LD/Lab/Ind/EngDem

[Andrea]

but perhaps rather more mysterious is the absence of Plaid. Based on the Assembly elections, they would have had a very good chance in both North Wales and Dyfed Powys. Can anyone shed any light on that mystery?

Until yesterday I didn't even realize they were boycotting these elections.
AT their recent conference they discussed the matter and confirmed their decision not to stand. Here's the statement from a party spokesperon:

A discussion was had during the conference which confirmed the party's earlier decision not to stand police commissioners. The party has long opposed the introduction of elected police and crime commissioners because of the real danger that it could lead to the politicisation of policing. The party also believes that their establishment is not a good use of policing and financial resources at a time of such damaging public sector cuts. The decision not to stand candidates was taken following widespread discussion within the party over the past months

[Andrea]

Labour candidate in Northamptonshire committed a minor offence 20+ years ago and didn't tell it earlier. It's too late to withdraw, so he will stay on the ballot paper.

[Andrea]

Asil Nadir has been found guilty. This has interesting implications for the election in Hampshire...

The local drama seems to be focused on "where Mates really lives?"
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/michael-mates-police-poll-fraud-1424253

[Andrea]

Dyfed/Powys was always going to be curious given the high LD/Plaid base there's there.

Cheshire can be added to Cumbria, Humberside and Staffs as a Labour hope ended up Tory.  
Differential turnout may have killed them (Tory areas always have an higher turnout and Tory voters could be more interested in law and order policies). The opposite is true about Bedfordshire where Luton had an higher turnout that Central Midbedfordshire.
Among the notionally Tory areas based on 2010 GE, Labour also picked up Lancashire.

Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire look pretty good for Labour.

How many lost deposists? Just a couple in Cornwall and Devon?

The former MPs elected are Jane Kennedy (Merseyside), Vera Baird (Northumbria), Paddy Tipping (Nottinghamshire), Sir Graham Brigh (Cambridgeshire) and obviously Tony Lloyd and Alun Michael.

After seeing the first results from Wales, I thought Alun Michael may have been in danger too. All political careers end up in failure but there's a limit even for this motto!

[Andrea]

Sussex results are reported by Local Authority (via the Brighton & Hove City Council website). Does anyone know of any others doing so? If so I can make a map..

I'm gathering that data as we speak (currently up to 84 out of 315). When I have all 315 I shall be more than happy to send it to you.

Thanks Harry yes please do - and I'll be more than happy to produce a map! I believe you have my email address from before but if not I'll PM it to you.

Currently up to 121 at the moment. I think I do, but have changed e-mail packages so a PM might be a good idea

how many PCC areas have you fully tallied?

[Andrea]

Local Area Results Tallied: 145
Local Area Results with Electorates: 69
PCC Area Results Tallied: 15

I suppose the 15 PCC areas totally tallied are West Yorkshire, Humberside, Nottinghamshire, Leicestershire, Sussex, Kent, Dyfed Powys, South Wales, Essex, Suffolk, Cambridgeshire, Northumbria, West Midlands, Hampshire, Thames Valley.

 They are the ones where the council managing the area count published the results by area on a single page.

I've also seen  1 prefs results from Liverpool, Wirral, Sefton, Blackpool, Pendle, Wyre, South Ribble, Ribble Valley, Blackburn, Chorley, Stoke, Cannock Chase, Newcaslte under Lyme, Staffs Moorlands, South Staffordshire, Newport, Blaenau Gwent, Torfaen, Caerphilly.

Do you need any of them?

[Andrea]

I've also seen  1 prefs results from Liverpool, Wirral, Sefton, Blackpool, Pendle, Wyre, South Ribble, Ribble Valley, Blackburn, Chorley, Stoke, Cannock Chase, Newcaslte under Lyme, Staffs Moorlands, South Staffordshire, Newport, Blaenau Gwent, Torfaen, Caerphilly.

Do you need any of them?

YES PLEASE!!!

Staffs Moorlands: COn 5399 Lab 3838
Cannock Chase: Lab 4426 Con 3126
South Staffordshire Con 6380 Lab 3540
Stoke: Lab 10725 Con 6,674,
Newcastle: Lab 5786 Con 4606


Blackpool

Lab 7,742 Con 5,716 UKIP 2,861 LD 1,159
Second prefs: Con 1,482 Lab 1,297


Blackburn
Lab 8,694 Con 3,998 LD 2,085 UKIP 1,697
Second prefs: Lab 1,483 Con 1,1157

Pendle
LD 3288, Conservative 3252, Labour 2911, UKIP 138

Ribble Valley
Con 2,881 UKIP 1,130 Lab 1,112 LD 633
Second prefs Con 721 Lab 394

Wyre Con 6458 Lab 5249 UKIP 2890 LD 874
Second prefs: Con 1580 Lab 959 (LD 342 UKIP 83 for what it matters. So 83 LibDems transfered to UKIP and 342 UKippers went LD)

South Ribble:
Con 4,587 Lab 4,530 UKIP 2,067 LD 983
Second prefs
Con 1,175 Lab 905 (496 second prefs from LD and UKIP to UKIP and LD)

Chorley
Lab 6500 Con 5407 UKIP 1862 LD 968
Second prefs: Con 1105 Lab 894

Liverpool
Lab 27536 Ind 3582 LD 3395 Con 2203 UKIP 1771 EngDem 1685

Wirral
Lab 13,025,Con 7,108, Ind 4,388, UKIP 2,976, LD 1,918, EngDem 1,737

Sefton: Lab 10,858 Ind Reid 3,999 Con 3,701 LD 2,330 UKIP 2,268 Eng Dem 1,65

Newport:Lab 5345 Ind 5135 Con 2046 Ind 1534
Second pref: Ind 1,697 Lab 433

Bleanau Gwent: Lab 3540 Ind 2353 Ind 517 Con 346
Second prefs: Ind 474 Lab 124

Torfaen: Lab 3988 Ind 3674 Con 973 Ind 966
Second prefs:  Ind 949 Lab 254

Caerphilly: Ind 8033 Lab 7327 Ind 1939 Con 1143
Second prefs Ind 1651 Con 441