The 100k Districts Series
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 19, 2024, 07:22:09 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  General Politics
  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderators: muon2, 100% pro-life no matter what)
  The 100k Districts Series
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 [6] 7
Author Topic: The 100k Districts Series  (Read 58134 times)
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,206
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #125 on: October 16, 2012, 11:20:32 AM »

You know what's funny - I thought about this today at work and figured that if there was any way to attempt to address your complaints, it would have to be with a southern district like that.

I notice it's fairly dreadful from the Hispanic opportunity POV, but these things matter less in New Mexico than in other states - Hispanics can win such districts there.
Logged
WMS
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,562


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -1.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #126 on: October 16, 2012, 04:12:32 PM »

You know what's funny - I thought about this today at work and figured that if there was any way to attempt to address your complaints, it would have to be with a southern district like that.

I notice it's fairly dreadful from the Hispanic opportunity POV, but these things matter less in New Mexico than in other states - Hispanics can win such districts there.

True, there are certain compromises one must make in drawing such districts, but I wasn't out to screw anyone over with my map - even the enemy North Valley residents get placed in a nice community of interest district. Yes, there are further internal COI splits, but aren't there always? Smiley

Ah, both 13 (dark salmon) and 15 (dark orange) are quite winnable by Hispanics - Albuquerque City Council District 6 is in that position and has elected both Anglo and Hispanic Democrats. ABQ CC District 2 has done the same thing. Now, that doesn't mean the primaries won't be interesting there... Evil

Also, I note that the whole West Side - Corrales district ends up as a swing district, which I find pleasing. Kiki
Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,206
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #127 on: October 22, 2012, 12:18:37 PM »
« Edited: October 23, 2012, 12:41:44 PM by Minion of Midas »

Illinois. 128 districts. They say this message exceeds the maximum allowed length. Bastards.





27 districts in the city of Chicago, excluding only O'Hare (north of West Lawrence Avenue - the official neigborhood extends further south; I removed only as much as was necessary for basic contiguity of the outer Cook districts.)
1 Chicago Dunning - Norwood Park 103390, 76w-17h, 59.4% Obama. Awkward shape of this and the one to the east due to neighboring minority districts and the city line.
2 Chicago North Park - Sauganash 99832, 61w-17h-16a, 63.7% Obama
3 Chicago West Ridge - Rogers Park 102470, 35w-26h-20b-16a, 85.4% Obama
4 Chicago Edgewater - Andersonville 99802, 52w-19b-15h-12a, 85.5% Obama
5 Chicago Lakeview - Northalstead 97107, 79w-7h-7a-5b, 80.1% Obama
6 Chicago Roscoe Village - North Center 99870, 73w-16h-6a, 81.2% Obama
7 Chicago Lincoln Park - Bucktown 97035, 77w-9b-7h-5a, 75.6% Obama
8 Chicago Loop - River North 96538, 67w-15a-10b-6h, 74.7% Obama
9 Chicago Near West Side - Wicker Park 102644, 59w-20h-11b-8a, 82.9% Obama

10 Chicago Logan Square 102010, 63h-24w-10b, 88.6% Obama. I created four Hispanic majority VAP districts in the northwest. It may be that turnout and citizenship figures are so low that I'd better have left that fourth one off, though that would have meant moving fairly sizable Hispanic neighborhoods into a "White" district (mind you, on this design the opposite happens.)
11 Chicago Avondale - Albany Park 103495, 60h-27w-8a, 82.6% Obama
12 Chicago Hermosa - Portage Park 98509, 63h-30w, 80.0% Obama
13 Chicago Cragin - Montclare 97047, 64h-30w, 77.3% Obama

14 Chicago Austin - Galewood 96628, 87b-8h, 97.8% Obama. The West Side is so clearly defined it's really not funny, with a partial exemption at the (campuses-infested) Eastern end. It's also still somewhat too large to be put whole into two districts, which inspired the... thing... you see as no.16. Exact boundaries of that due to wanting both a Black VAP majority and the inclusion of all of Chinatown proper (though not all the Asian population in that general area, which would have been impossible to achieve).
15 Chicago Garfield Park 96359, 88b-9h, 98.5% Obama
16 Chicago Oakland - Chinatown - Tri-Taylor 100398, 53b-22a-14w-10h, 92.2% Obama.

17 Chicago Pilsen - Lawndale 99580, 91h, 89.0% Obama. Four more Hispanic districts in the southwest, although one of them really doesn't count.
18 Chicago McKinley Park - Brighton Park - New City 99172, 74h-11b-9w-5a, 83.9% Obama. That precinct protruding north into 17 has 11,000 people, two thirds of the district's Blacks and a quarter of the Whites. The Cook County Jail, of course.
19 Chicago Clearing - Archer Heights 99535, 57h-39w, 67.6% Obama. Though it has a Hispanic VAP majority, I'm fairly certain this would be a safely White district in practice. It falls into two uneven parts - Clearing and Garfield Ridge to the west, which despite a growing Hispanic presence remain majority White neighborhoods - the largest of four such areas on the South Side - and Archer Heights and West Elsden to the east of Midway Airport which are part of the supermajority Hispanic belt here but have fewer inhabitants overall. Add what we know about citizenship and turnout and...
20 Chicago Gage Park - West Lawn - Scottsdale 98566, 79h-11w-9b, 81.8% Obama

21 Chicago Marquette Park - Ashburn 98948, 80b-16h, 97.4% Obama. And we're in the Black South Side.
22 Chicago Englewood - Bridgeport 97441, 72b-12w-10h-5a, 93.3% Obama. Needed to keep Bridgeport away from district 16, obviously.
23 Chicago Hyde Park - Woodlawn 101643, 73b-17w, 972.% Obama. Whites around the uni campus.
24 Chicago Avalon Park - Chatham - Burnside 96361, 97b, 99.2% Obama. Eat sh!t, bitches. You think this is a national record?
25 Chicago East Side - Calumet Heights - South Shore 98009, 52b-36h-10w, 90.9% Obama. This Hispanic enclave continues into Indiana, of course.
26 Chicago Auburn Gresham - Washington Heights 99740, 98b, 99.3% Obama. Now this is what a national record looks like.
27 Chicago West Pullman - Morgan Park - Mount Greenwood 101368, 59b-34w, 81.3% Obama. More Whites here in the southwesternmost corner of the city, too far to be connected to those around Clearing. Shape is the city boundary again.

25 districts in outer Cook County.
28 Worth N (Oak Lawn - Evergreen Park) 105039, 76w-13h-7b, 57.5% Obama. "First" names reference townships, bracketed names references villages/CDPs but are only approximately descriptive.
29 Worth S (Alsip) - Bremen W (Oak Forest - Tinley Park) 104579, 71w-16h-10b, 57.0% Obama
30 Calumet - Thornton W (Harvey) - Bremen E (Markham) 103139, 65b-19h-15w, 90.9% Obama
31 Thornton E (South Holland - Dolton) 103905, 68b-20w-10h, 86.3% Obama
32 Bloom (- Lansing) 100796, 45b-35w-18h, 75.6% Obama. Bloom township is plurality Black and needs some extra population. It so turns out that the southern tier of Thornton is another one of these weird White enclaves, and in order not to destroy the Black VAP plurality I had to choose the least  heavily White of the areas in question.  Which of course also meant more Whites locked into the "main" Thornton district. (Of course, there was the option of turning it into a Black majority district by cutting into Rich instead. I think that could have been done without an extra cut. The logic here is that an undersized district based only on the township would not have been Black majority either - its profile has been changed as little as possible by the addition.)
33 Rich - Bremen S (Hazel Crest) 103059, 68b-24w, 86.2% Obama
As you note, all of these districts (bar Bloom) are quite large. That could be fixed by removing Calumet township and treating it as part of the city of Chicago (where the extra population could be absorbed by the South Side districts alone.) The effect on districts' racial population balance would have been quite negligible, though more "White" Bremen precincts would have to have been included in "Black" districts. I preferred to stick to the city boundary seeing as it was possible to do so without introducing another split northwest of Worth.

34 Orland 97558, 86w-7h, 50.3% McCain. Whole township. Yeah, that's right, McCain won a township in Cook County. Several, I think (but didn't check; it's theoretically feasible that this was the only one though I must have been quite lucky in my split of Lyons in that case).

35 Palos - Lemont - Lyons SW (Burr Ridge) 96954, 87w-7h, 50.7% McCain
36 Stickney - Lyons E (Summit - Justice) 98888, 60w-31h-6b, 64.5% Obama. City line issues again, Stickney has two separate parts.
37 Proviso S (Forest Park - La Grange Park) - Riverside - Lyons NW (La Grange) 99985, 78w-10h-8b, 61.5% Obama. Proviso areas included are only touch-point contiguous, as it happens. Of course the exact split of Proviso was determined by the needs of the district to the north.
38 Proviso N (Maywood) 99659, 46b-36h-15w, 87.8% Obama. Yeah. This is, like, the suburban extension to the West Side but separated from it by Oak Park and River Forest. It's also where John Prine grew up.

39 Cicero (- Berwyn NE) 96316, 84h-11w, 79.0% Obama. Chose the most heavily Hispanic parts of Berwyn.
40 Oak Park - Berwyn (bulk) 96110, 50w-30h-14b, 80.8% Obama

41 Leyden - River Forest 97814, 62w-31h, 62.6% Obama. Excludes the detached parts of Leyden north of O'Hare.
42 Norwood Park - Maine SE (Park Ridge) - Niles SW (Morton Grove) - Chicago O'Hare. Gulp. And a few detached bits of Leyden. That's Norwood Park the township, which is in several parts although the southern one is much the largest, not Norwood Park the Chicago neighborhood, which was part of Norwood Park the township before it was annexed by Chicago (as was much of O'Hare, annexed much later. The rest coming from Leyden, of course.) But there we are. 103649, 80w-10a-7h, 55.9% Obama.
43 Maine NW (Des Plaines) 103502, 62w-18a-15h, 61.6% Obama
44 Niles E (Skokie) - New Trier SW (Gross Point) 101229, 62w-23a-7h, 68.7% Obama
45 Evanston - New Trier SE (Winnetka) 97087, 69w-14b-8h-7a, 79.0% Obama
46 Northfield - New Trier N (Glencoe) 95919, 80w-12a-5h, 60.9% Obama

47 Wheeling N&E 101713, 66w-20h-11a, 61.5% Obama
48 Wheeling SW (Arlington Heights) - Palatine S (Rolling Meadows) - Schaumburg NE (Lexington Fields) 95926, 76w-13a-8h, 54.7% Obama. Another one of those leftovers districts.
49 Elk Grove - Schaumburg SE 102922, 66w-19h-11a, 58.4% Obama. Area of Schaumburg included is part of Elk Grove Village.
50 Schaumburg W 101737, 63w-17a-14h, 63.2% Obama
51 Palatine (bulk) - Barrington 104155, 69w-15h-12a, 53.0% Obama

52 Hanover 99538, 48w-33h-14a, 62.8% Obama. Whole township.

Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,206
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #128 on: October 22, 2012, 12:19:17 PM »
« Edited: October 23, 2012, 12:52:31 PM by Minion of Midas »

Seven Lake County districts. (Yeah, I know it's not wholly covered in the North Chicago map. You'll have to use the Downstate North map, sorry.)
53 West Deerfield - Moraine - Shields 104268, 77w-11h-7b, 65.8% Obama
54 Waukegan 100079, 56h-20w-19b, 77.7% Obama. Had to use a few precincts each from both Warren and Benton to bring it the next one into tolerance in order not to destroy the Hispanic VAP majority.
55 Warren - Zion - Benton - Newport 105089, 61w-16h-13b-7a, 57.0% Obama
56 Fremont - Avon 97338, 62w-28h-6a, 59.0% Obama
57 Libertyville - Vernon (bulk) 97444, 73w-12a-12h, 56.7% Obama
58 Ela - Cuba - Vernon SW - Wauconda S 98738, 84w-8a-7h, 52.5% Obama
59 Antioch - Lake Villa - Grant - Wauconda N 99806, 88w-9h, 53.4% Obama. Lol at Obama winning them all, his performance in the collar counties was really ridiculously good and is not a serious benchmark.

60 McHenry NE (McHenry) 99940, 88w-9h, 50.4% Obama
61 McHenry SE (Cary) 103747, 84w-10h, 53.3% Obama
62 McHenry W (Woodstock) 105073, 79w-16h, 51.9% Obama. Same here, same here. EDIT: Forgot to mention that this splits a township between SE and W; Grafton.

63 DeKalb 105160, 80w-10h-6b, 57.5% Obama. Whole county.

Four districts in Kane County plus two that cross the county line.
64 Elgin E - Carpentersville (part of Dundee township) 100634, 52h-36w-8b, 66.0% Obama. No VAP majority.
65 Elgin W - Dundee W - N Kane 96996, 76w-12h-8a, 51.2% Obama. Elgin township can form its own district, but when I noticed its 49w-39h breakdown and a further Hispanic enclave to the north I decided to do this. Elgin split could be amended slightly to up the percentage, but I didn't think it worth it. You're not getting to a VAP majority that way. Randall Road forms a good solid recognizable western boundary within Elgin proper (the rest of it is mostly village/CDP boundaries.) As a testament to suburban Hispanic enclaves turnout: undoing the split drops the Obama share in the Elgin district by over 3 percentage points but only raises it by 1.3 in the outer district. Ahem.
66 Aurora E 103484, 66h-22w-10b, 74.6% Obama. Bulk of the city and part of the township; the crazy boundary forces that. I removed as much of the township as was possible without going insane, hence the southerly wraparound. Doing so had the double advantage of allowing the retention of all the heavily Hispanic precincts, of course.
67 Aurora W - Batavia - Geneva 104438, 74w-17h-5b, 55.2% Obama.

68 Kendall N - SW Kane 95440, 76w-16h, 52.4% Obama. Oswego township split.
69 Kendall S - Grundy 95958, 83w-10h, 49.8% Obama

70 Saint Charles - Campton - Blackberry - Wayne W 96678, 84w-9h, 52.2% McCain. Crosses the line into DuPage County, the remainder of which forms nine districts.

71 Wayne E - Winfield 99255, 64w-23h-9a, 55.7% Obama. Home to the most electable Illinois Republican alive.
72 Bloomingdale (bulk) 98930, 63w-16h-14a, 57.4% Obama
73 Addison - Bloomingdale SE (Glendale Heights) 101581, 57w-32h-8a, 57.8% Obama
74 York N 99937, 79w-10h-6a, 54.8% Obama
75 York S - Downers Grove NW - Milton S- Lisle NE 98358, 81w-8a-6h, 52.3% Obama. Another leftovers district, but tied together by Downers Grove (the place) and the Reagan Tollway.
76 Milton (Wheaton - Glen Ellyn) 100141, 77w-8h-7a-5b, 51.9% Obama
77 Downers Grove E (Darien) 101475, 76w-11a-7h-5b, 50.4% Obama
78 Lisle (bulk) 103668, 74w-11a-8h-5b, 56.1% Obama. A lot of Naperville (the place) is actually here.
79 Naperville 100019, 64w-16a-10h-8b, 58.9% Obama. Whole town.
Wait... McCain won one district in Kane and DuPage. Lmao.

7 districts in Will County, one of which crosses into Kankakee.
80 Du Page (Bolingbrook). 98063, 48w-22h-16b-11a, 65.0% Obama. VAP majority. Yeah, that's what it's called as a township. 'S'nah'ma fault. Includes a couple of precincts from Wheatland, carefully chosen by racial makeup.
81 Wheatland (bulk) - Plainfield N 99385, 69w-12a-11h-6b, 53.7% Obama
82 Troy - Plainfield S 98126, 72w-17h-7b, 55.9% Obama
83 Lockport - Homer 99069, 74w-14h-8b, 53.1% Obama
84 Joliet - Channahon - Jackson 101820, 46w-31h-20b, 68.3% Obama. VAP majority. A fair bit of Joliet (the place) is in Troy and the two rural townships added here to make up the numbers are lily White, but the excluded Joliet areas are still White as well, so bah.
85 New Lenox - Frankfort 97325, 90w-6h, 53.4% McCain
86 S Will - N Kankakee 99446, 77w-15b-6h, 51.6% Obama. Black populations at the northeast corner in Crete and University Park.
87 Kankakee 97775, 70w-17b-10h, 53.2% Obama

Time for a new map. Overdue, actually.



88 La Salle (bulk) 103042, 89w-7h, 55.3% Obama. I don't think this is traditionally defined as a suburban Chicago county, but it sure swung that way in 2008. Then again, the place voted for Dukakis and was close way back in 1960, so maybe not.
89 Lee - Ogle - Mendota 100410, 88w-9h, 51.8% McCain

90 Boone - Harlem - Owen 97545, 81w-14h, 51.5% Obama
91 Rockford E (city and township) - Cherry Valley 98795, 78w-10h-7b, 51.0% Obama
92 Rockford W (city and township) 100144, >50w-27b-18h, 71.0% Obama
93 Stephenson - Rockton - W Winnebago 100658, 89w-5b, 49.5% Obama

94 Whiteside - Carroll - Jo Daviess 96563, 90w-8h, 56.1% Obama

95 Rock Island E (Moline) 103970, 78w-13h-6b, 60.6% Obama. Blackhawk township is split.
96 Rock Island W (Rock Island) - Mercer - Warren - Henderson - Hancock 104152, 85w-7b-6h, 55.8% Obama

97 Knox - Henry 103405, 89w, 56.1% Obama. First district with no individual minority over 5%! But not the last...
98 Bureau - Woodford - Putnam - Marshall - Stark 98282, 94w, 53.2% McCain. Bulk of the population is in the first two, but listing all counties up to a minimum of five is sort of a policy I vaguely followed of late.



99 Peoria City 97910, 57w-31b-5h, 64.2% Obama. Excludes a number of fairly suburban areas on the northeast side of the city, and one precinct in the west for contiguity reasons. Does not include any area outside the city.
100 Peoria Suburban - Fondulac 101965, 91w, 49.5% McCain. Includes one township of Tazewell County.
101 Tazewell (bulk) 103955, 95w, 51.3% McCain
102 McDonough - Fulton - Mason - S Tazewell 102405, 93w, 52.3% Obama

103 Adams - Pike - Schuyler - Brown - Greene 103103, 93w, 58.9% McCain. Adams is almost two thirds of the district.
104 Morgan - Greene - Jersey - Scott - Cass - Menard (okay, that was six. But what do you call this - "Lower Illinois Valley - East Bank"?) 104120, 92w, 51.8% McCain

105 Springfield City 99285, 72w-21b, 59.1% Obama. As close to the actual area of the city as approximate contiguity, quota constraints, the distribution of the Black population, and my sanity allowed between them. ie it does exclude some city precincts, includes some Woodside township precincts.
106 Sangamon Suburban 98180, 93w, 54.2% McCain

107 Macon N (Decatur) 98523, 76w-18b, 51.6% Obama
108 Christian - Shelby - Macon S - Moultrie - Piatt 100983, 97w (state record), 56.0% McCain

109 Bloomington - De Witt 104675, 80w-8b-5a, 49.4% Obama
110 Normal - Logan 97624, 86w-7b, 50.3% McCain. It was not possible to keep all of Bloomington and Normal together, so I split them along the city line. It then turned out to be - not impossible actually, but incredibly awkward - to keep one of the districts within the county given decisions I'd already taken elsewhere (Sangamon, Champaign). Hence this.
111 Livingston - Iroquois - Ford - McLean E 96888, 92w, 61.4% McCain. His best, by a tiny margin.

112 Vermilion - Edgar 100221, 84w-10b, 49.7% McCain

113 Champaign NE (Urbana) 100586, 73w-11b-8a-5h, 54.2% Obama
114 Champaign SW (Champaign) 100495, 69w-13b-10a-6h, 61.4% Obama. Getting these two towns into one district was also impossible, while this split worked very well.

115 Coles - Douglas - Clark - Cumberland 101236, 93w, 52.3% McCain
116 Fayette - Effingham - Jasper - Richland - Clay 96128, 96w, 61.3% McCain
117 Macoupin - Montgomery - Bond 95637, 95w, 51.9% Obama

118 Edwardsville - Clinton 103951, 91w, 50.9% McCain. Took a while to find an alignment that doesn't split towns here.
119 Alton 98847, 87w-9b, 54.5% Obama
120 Granite City - Collinsville 104246, 84w-9b, 56.1% Obama. The Blacks are mostly in Venice township, adjacent to East Saint Louis, but I eventually decided against crossing the county line.

121 East Saint Louis - Belleville W 95923, 60b-34w, 80.2% Obama. Belleville has this odd northwestern trough. It's majority White, but there are Blacks everywhere there. It's wholly included here, as are a couple of precints in Belleville proper. That (and using the population tolerance) allowed me to not also include part of Saint Clair township (which surrounds Belleville) or all or part of lilywhite Sugar Loaf township (the southernmost along the river in St Clair County). Or Venice, of course.
122 Belleville - Monroe 105015, 88w-7b, 51.0% McCain. Splits Belleville city with 121 and Saint Clair township with 123.
123 O'Fallon 102075, 75w-16b, 49.8% Obama

124 Jackson - Randolph - W Perry 104316, 80w-13b, 54.4% Obama
125 Marion - Jefferson - Washington - E Perry 104708, 91w-5b, 52.3% McCain

126 Wabash Valley (seven counties and two townships of Franklin) 96258, 94w, 57.4% McCain
127 Williamson - Franklin (bulk) 104860, 94w, 54.2% McCain

128 Shawnee Hills 99510, 87w-8b, 55.1% McCain. Yes, it's a bit of a naff touristy name, but it's used for pretty exactly this area - and I found the term after drawing the district! "Little Egypt" is usually considered to extend further north. Ohio Valley would be an alternative, I suppose, but only from an Illinois perspective.
Logged
muon2
Moderator
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,800


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #129 on: October 23, 2012, 07:29:46 AM »

The closeness of your 100K districts to the 108K size in the IL House makes for interesting comparisons. For instance on the north side of Chicago the districts are not so different than the actual House districts and as you predicted, only three of the four Latino districts are represented by a Latino, though that is as much due to city politics as it is to ethnic turnout, an effect seen even more strongly in the SW Chicago Latino areas.

Your Black city districts would probably have trouble in court. That level of packing generally doesn't hold up. Any districts over 80% are suspect, but you would have to make the case that preserving the city boundary requires that level of packing. The Chicago wards are that packed, precisely because they can't cross the lines.
Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,206
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #130 on: October 23, 2012, 12:58:43 PM »

Your Black city districts would probably have trouble in court. That level of packing generally doesn't hold up. Any districts over 80% are suspect, but you would have to make the case that preserving the city boundary requires that level of packing.
It doesn't. The 90%+ ones at any rate could be unpacked by splitting the Mount Greenwood Whites and the East Side Hispanics each between two districts. It would just be awkward and ugly and not reflect communities at all. Similarly the West Side districts could be unpacked by unloading some Blacks on the Hispanic districts to the north (that might actually help keep 60% Hispanic districts in Hispanic hands as long as the Blacks don't outnumber the Whites) and then also extending them south of the railway into the super-Hispanic district there. Again, I don't do this kind of thing - I'm drawing lines in fantasyland and am not bound by VRA case law. I just create a Black district where creating a Black district is possible because I think that doing so is right. I don't necessarily try to maximize the number of Black districts possible in a city that will have several of them anyways because I do not think that that is right (though it may be the right thing in some circumstances, depending on the exact geographic distribution etc).
Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,206
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #131 on: October 28, 2012, 07:49:14 AM »

Michigan. 99 districts. The numbering scheme begins in the UP but for reasons of which county lines are split and natural flow of presentation does not end with Detroit, treating Genesee County and the Thumb afterwards.



The UP could fit into three oversized districts, and I wouldn't be surprised to find a commission made up of Michiganders to propose it as a matter of course. However such a design would require county splits, and the inclusion of Mackinac County with the Northern Lower Peninsula also enabled a better map there.
Obviously the position of Menominee County in the no-splits map of the UP is also far from ideal. But keeping a district on the north shore pretty much requires a split of either the Houghton, Marquette or Sault Sainte Marie areas (though not necessarily the cities), with or without Mackinac, and the remainder of the map is quite good.

1 Houghton - Iron Mountain (6 counties) 99976, 95w, 49.0% McCain, D avg
2 Marquette - Menominee - Baraga 99966, 92w, 57.2% Obama
3 Chippewa - Luce - Alger - Schoolcraft - Delta 100306, 83w-8n, 50.5% Obama, R avg. The Sault Nation of Chippewa are offreservation people.

While the "averages" correlate fairly closely with the presidential figures in the UP, and happen to actually flip two of the districts in different directions, they skew very heavily Republican (and the Obama figures heavily Democratic) across much of the Lower Peninsula.

What follows is the only alignment splitting only one county across the region detailed under 4-9+14&15. While not all districts are ideal (quite a few are, though!) that is also true of all alignments with two split counties that I found (mostly pairing Isabella with Clare, the only whole county it can be paired with). Indeed they tended to be worse on balance.

4 Charlevoix - Straits of Mackinac 95908, 91w, 50.8% McCain
5 Alpena - etc 95702, 96w, 50.4% Obama, R avg
6 triangular thingy around Gaylord 101922, 96w, 52.0% McCain. Inclusion of Ogemaw is somewhat unfortunate.
7 Grand Traverse - Kalkaska 104331, 94w, 51.1% McCain. Only whole county Grand Traverse can be paired with.
8 Leelanau - etc 96509, 93w, 51.3% Obama, R avg
9 Roscommon - Missaukee - Clare - Gladwin 95916, 96w, 49.7% McCain

10 Bay (bulk) 96127, 91w-5h, 57.8% Obama
11 Midland - W Bay 95273, 93w, 50.8% McCain

12 Saginaw city 101106, 51w-34b-12h, 70.4% Obama
13 Saginaw Outer 99063, 91w, 51.8% McCain
Saginaw Township (located to the west of the city) split. The smaller suburban townships to the east of Saginaw City have surprisingly large Black populations and have been included with the city.

14 Isabella - Mecosta (bulk) 104690, 89w, 55.6% Obama, R avg
15 Oceana - Mason - Lake - Osceola - N Mecosta 98761, 91w-6h, 49.8% Obama, R avg
It was not possible within this combination of counties to move Big Rapids into the 15th district. Alignment of rural townships chosen keeps the Mount Pleasant-Big Rapids road (MI 20) within the 14th district. Newaygo County population is heavily concentrated in the southern half, with under 10,000 people living at White Cloud and points north.



16 Muskegon 98708, 66w-24b-6h, 69.7% Obama.
17 N Muskegon - Newaygo 102996, 92w, 53.1% Obama, R avg
18 N Ottawa - Fruitport (and two further but much less inhabited Muskegon townships, Sullivan and Ravenna) 95895, 93w, 52.7% McCain
19 SE Ottawa 103090, 92w, a whopping 71.6% McCain. Lotsa Dutch Conservatives in Western Michigan, but this is their capital.
20 Holland 98962, 73w-18h, 56.0% McCain. Crosscounty, like the city itself.
21 Allegan (remainder) 96206, 91w-6h, 52.6% McCain

22 Van Buren - N Cass 95066, 83w-9h, 53.7% Obama, R avg
23 E Berrien - S Cass 94869, 88w, 49.3% McCain
24 W Berrien 95429, 70w-22b, 53.8% Obama, R avg
Given the population at the far low end of tolerance, it is a pleasant surprise that there are at least two (ie, there are two that I found, and I spent quite some time trying) combinations involving no township splits and only the minimum two county splits. This one better reflects communities of interest by keeping the Berrien shore together and also including Berrien Springs, which has a Black community, in the same district as Benton Harbor. Paw Paw Lake residents would have liked the other one better, though.

25 Saint Joseph (bulk) - Portage 104469, 87w-5h, 51.4% Obama, R avg. And Schoolcraft township.
26 Kalamazoo city 97987, 68w-20b-6h, 72.4% Obama. And Kalamazoo township and the tiny suburban "city" of Parchment.
27 Outer Kalamazoo 97841, 88w, 50.3% Obama, R avg
28 Hillsdale - Branch - E Saint Joseph 103265, 94w, 53.4% McCain

29 Battle Creek - S Calhoun 99343, 78w-11b, 54.4% Obama, R avg
30 Barry - N Calhoun, 95976, 91w, 50.9% McCain. Not an ideal arrangement.

Kent County, with no split townships outside of Grand Rapids! Took some work and one clearly suboptimal decision.
31 SE Kent, 95582, 89w, 62.9% McCain
32 Kentwood - Ada - East Grand Rapids - Northview - Grand Rapids Township 103519, 80w-8b-5h, 50.3% McCain
33 Wyoming - Grandville - Grand Rapids Black Hills 99558, 65w-24h-7b, 49.4% McCain. This needed to take a few precincts of Grand Rapids (or Walker, I suppose). Removing the Whitest available bits created a really, really awkward spike eastward, connecting the minorities in the city center with those in the far south through the lilywhite southeast while removing the less-than-lilywhite south central bits. And the northern boundary of the Grand Rapids S district is already awkwardly shaped in an obvious racial gerry. So what I decided to do instead was build on the Hispanic presence in Wyoming by adding the four really heavily Hispanic precincts that exist in Grand Rapids (all of them over 70% Hispanic with roughly even numbers of Whites and Blacks, and over 80% Obama), which are situated just southwest of the city centre and north of Wyoming. This did have the adverse effect of giving Grand Rapids S, intended as a minority influence district, a White majority in total population... but a VAP majority was unavoidable anyways.
34 Grand Rapids S 98135, 51w-31b-12h, 71.9% Obama
35 Grand Rapids N - Walker 101387, 80w-10h-7b, 53.9% Obama, R avg
36 N Kent 104441, 92w, 56.4% McCain

37 Montcalm (bulk) - Gratiot 97381, 91w, 50.2% Obama, R avg
38 Ionia - W Clinton - S Montcalm 94874 (4961 below quota), 90w, 52.9% McCain
39 E Clinton - N Shiawassee 103305, 92w, 53.3% Obama, R avg
40 W Livingston - S Shiawassee 102792, 95w, 53.9% McCain
41 SE Livingston 98368, 95w, 55.9% McCain

42 S Ingham - Eaton Rapids 95497, 87w, 53.3% Obama, R avg. Includes four precincts in Lansing south of Jolly Road and east of Washington Avenue, including an enclave.
43 East Lansing - Meridian 96636, 78w-10a-6b, 67.6% Obama. Includes Williamstown Township (but not Williamston City), the portion (or portions, rather) of Lansing Township to the city's east, and one precinct of Lansing to render it contiguous.
44 Lansing Central 101432, 56w-22b-13h, 75.1% Obama. Includes the main body of Lansing Township on the city's west side. Excludes the areas of the city mentioned above and those in Eaton County.
45 Eaton (bulk) 95089, 84w-7b, 53.7% Obama, R avg. The county is slightly too large to remain undivided, and the areas of the city of Lansing are too large a share of it to be excluded.

46 Jackson city (and points west) 97792, 80w-12b, 52.8% Obama, R avg
47 E Jackson - W Washtenaw 100382, 95w, 49.2% Obama, R avg
48 Ann Arbor city 103882, 72w-14a-6b, 81.4% Obama. Bulk of city and northeastern portions of township, with carveout motivated mostly by creating two wholly contiguous districts, given the sprinkled township enclaves in many parts of the city. Happens to include some fairly strongly Black precincts, which is unproblematic because the Black population across the remainder of the city is broadly comparable to that across the non-city parts of the next district anyways.
49 Ann Arbor Suburban - SE Washtenaw 103250, 74w-9b-9a, 63.8% Obama
50 Ypsilanti - NE Washtenaw 99733, 62w-27b, 71.0% Obama

51 Lenawee 99892, 88w-8h, 51.7% Obama, R avg. Only district to consist of one whole  county.

Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,206
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #132 on: October 28, 2012, 07:57:57 AM »



52 S Monroe 101677, 93w, 51.3% Obama, R avg
53 N Monroe - Sumpter - Huron - Brownstown 100936, 87w, 54.6% Obama, R avg. Includes the northwestern (main) and southeastern portions of Brownstown township, but not the central one.
54 SE Wayne 103754, 90w, 55.3% Obama, R avg. Seven tiny cities, Grosse Ile township and the central portion of Brownstown.

55 Allen Park - Lincoln Park - Southgate 96357, 82w-10h, 61.2% Obama
56 Dearborn 98153, 87w, 65.1% Obama. Whole city.

57 Taylor (bulk) - Dearborn Heights S 97224, 81w-10b-5h, 61.9% Obama. Okay. Right. I admit this is unsatisfactory. The city boundaries of Dearborn, Dearborn Heights, and Westland are. Besides, I wanted a Black influence district west of this, further limiting options.
58 Inkster - Romulus - Van Buren - Belleville 97115, 46w-45b, 78.6% Obama. White VAP majority. Includes a tiny bit of Taylor and what's necessary of Westland to connect Inkster and Romulus. There just weren't many more Blacks nearby to include.
59 Westland E - Garden City - Dearborn Heights N 97757, 81w-11b, 62.0% Obama
60 Canton S - Westland W - Wayne 99117, 70w-13b-11a, 60.9% Obama, R avg(!)
61 Northville - Plymouth - Canton N 99306, 84w-8a, 49.9% McCain

62 Livonia 96942, 90w, 49.3% Obama, R avg. Whole vity.

63 Detroit Warrendale - Eliza Howell - Redford 102494, 52b-42w, 78.0% Obama. No VAP majority. Right, so because Redford's (which is not even a city but a township) inclusion with Detroit is unfortunate I at least added every White person I could find. Whites in Detroit live in four areas - ordered by approximate numbers involved, right around Hamtramck (itself a White enclave), where there are also a lot of Asians, just north of Dearborn in Warrendale, in the very city centre, and in the furthermost northwest corner. In most of the precincts they're found in, they are not a majority. Nowhere in Detroit remains lilywhite. This connects two of these areas with Redford. (Obviously there is nothing in the VRA about creating White influence districts, but they are a minority here.)
64 Detroit Rosedale Park 103162, 94b, 98.0% Obama
65 Detroit Martin Park - Begley 103306, 94b, 98.6% Obama
66 Detroit Russell Woods - Barton 103649, 95b, 98.7% Obama. "Others" almost beat Whites into third place here! Cheesy
67 Detroit Delray - River Rouge - Ecorse - Melvindale 101750, 44h-28w-26b, 85.6% Obama. Combines Detroit's Hispanic section (and some Black areas south of it) with three rather mixed small suburban cities.
68 Detroit Central - Hamtramck 104737, 62b-23w-10a, 94.8% Obama
69 Detroit Pulaski - Kranz Woods - Highland Park 104100, 92b, 98.2% Obama.
70 Detroit Ravendale - Chalmers 101314, 92b-5w, 97.6% Obama

71 Saint Clair Shores S - Harper Woods - The Grosse Pointes 102988, 84w-11b, 51.0% Obama, R avg
72 Eastpointe - Roseville - Saint Clair Shores N 96302, 78w-16b, 62.7% Obama

73 Warren S - Center Line 100932, 74w-16b, 62.5% Obama
74 Warren N - Sterling Heights S - Fraser 100424, 83w-7b-6a, 54.1% Obama, R avg
75 Sterling Heights N - Utica (and three Clinton township precincts) 99612, 86w-6a, 51.9% Obama, R avg
76 Mount Clemens - Clinton (bulk) 103380 78w-15a, 56.9% Obama, R avg. Clinton township could have formed its own district but this forced very awkward boundaries around it. Like, more awkward than the ribbon design of North Macomb that I eventually went with.

77 Harrison - NE Macomb 100756, 89w-6b, 49.9% Obama, R avg
78 Macomb township - N Macomb 97396, 90w, 51.4% McCain
79 Shelby - Washington 98943, 90w, 55.0% McCain

While both Macomb and Monroe had to be combined with Wayne (and 14k extra population tucked away in those 28 districts, most of which ended up in Detroit itself), Oakland County can stand alone and be apportioned 12 districts.
80 Rochester Hills - Rochester - Oakland township 100485, 82w-9a, 52.5% McCain
81 Troy - Clawson - Bloomfield Hills (and two precints of Bloomfield township) 99612, 76w-16a, 49.7% Obama, R avg
82 Pontiac - Auburn Hills - Bloomfield N - Lake Angelus 98230, 43w-37b-12h-5a, 71.4% Obama. Just not enough Blacks in the suburbs surrounding Pontiac for this to work quite right. White percentage could be marginally dropped by going to the end of the tolerance, but I decided against it and for a cleaner cut of Bloomfield.
83 Bloomfield S - Birmingham - Berkley - Royal Oak N 97519, 89w, 54.7% Obama, R avg
84 Madison Heights - four more cities - Royal Oak S - Oak Park N 97781, 83w-8b, 66.9% Obama. The place names around here resonate for me due to having been impressed, more than fifteen years ago, by the book that this film (which I did not know existed until looking it up on wikipedia just now) is based on. Cliff and Joe are from Madison Heights, Wendy is from Hazel Park, and IIRC the 7-11 where the hostage situation is taking place is in Ferndale. I never reread it, so I'm kinda amazed how much of it I remember.
85 Southfield - Oak Park 100470, 69b-25w, 88.5% Obama. Excludes the White northern edge of Oak Park, includes Lathrop Village city and the tiny Royal Oak township (which does not even border the city).
86 Farmington Hills - Farmington - Southfield township 104659, 71w-15b-10a, 58.6% Obama, R avg(!)
87 Novi - Lyon - Milford 100213, 83w-8b-5a, 53.8% Obama, R avg. And some tiny cities that are enclaves. Didn't list those in western Oakland.
88 Commerce - Wixom - Bloomfield S 102531, 82w-8b-6a, 55.1% Obama, R avg
89 Waterford - Bloomfield N 101590, 85w-5h-5b, 52.8% Obama, R avg
90 Lake Orion - Independence - Oxford - Addison 97834, 91w, 55.3% McCain
91 NW Oakland (7 townships and two cities) 101438, 94w, 54.2% McCain

92 SW Genesee 100074, 93w, 52.6% Obama, R avg
93 N Genesee 101326, 74w-19b, 68.8% Obama
94 Flint 102434, 56b-36w, 88.2% Obama. Whole city.
95 Burton - Davison - Grand Blanc 100531, 85w-8b, 57.9% Obama, R avg(!). Latter two names being shared by a tiny city and the surrounding township.
96 Lapeer (bulk) - E Genesee 97303, 93w, 49.3% McCain
97 Tuscola - Huron - N Lapeer 101288, 95w, 49.3% McCain

98 Sanilac - N Saint Clair 101378, 94w, 51.1% McCain
99 S Saint Clair 104776, 91w, 51.6% Obama, R avg
Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,206
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #133 on: October 31, 2012, 04:54:17 PM »

67 district Washington. Includes 2010 Senate as well as 2008 Presidential results. A number of districts where two races (or non-hispanic other) responses were over 5%, in southern King and in Pierce County. Listed as m.



1 Bellingham 103609, 83w-6h, 69.9% Obama, 64.0% Murray. And areas south and east to Lake Whatcom and the county line (so not very far).
2 Outer Whatcom 97531, 81w-9h, 53.2% McCain, 57.4% Rossi
3 West Skagit - San Juan 96497, 76w-18h, 58.3% Obama, 53.3% Murray. Anacortes ferry is the only year-round link to the mainland IIRC (though I had to break such links for Kitsap County). In Skagit, includes anything west of the interstate, the cities of Burlington and Mt Vernon, and all precincts bordering on the interstate north of Burlington.
4 NE Snohomish - E Skagit 98024, 87w-7h, 50.9% Obama, 55.0% Rossi. Bit awkward.



5 Island - Stanwood 103837, 85w-5h, 51.5% Obama, 51.8% Rossi

6 Marysville - Lake Stevens 99190, 76w-9h-5a, 55.5% Obama, 50.8% Rossi
7 Everett 103060, 68w-14h-8a, 63.0% Obama, 57.8% Murray. Only precinct outside the city included is Hat Island.
8 Mulkilteo - Mill Creek 101900, 68w-15a-10h, 60.3% Obama, 52.6% Murray
9 Snohomish - Monroe - Cathcart 96556, 82w-8h, 53.2% Obama, 54.6% Rossi
10 North Creek - Maltby 99243, 73w-15a-7h, 59.1% Obama, 51.8% Murray
11 Edmonds - Lynnwood 100182, 68w-14a-9h, 64.9% Obama, 59.5% Murray

12 Shoreline - Lake Forest Park - Mountlake Terrace 103244, 71w-13a-7h, 71.4% Obama, 67.2% Murray. Crosscounty. Includes northern half of Kenmore.

18 districts wholly in King, of which the first 6 cover the City of Seatlle.
13 Seattle Ballard - Crown Hill - Broadview (NW) 104146, 78w-8a-6h, 84.5% Obama, 82.0% Murray
14 Seattle Lake City - Ravenna - Sand Point (NE) 100226, 73w-12a-6h, 83.5% Obama, 81.1% Murray
15 Seattle Fremont - Portage Bay - Madrona (E) 99376, 75w-11a, 89.4% Obama, 86.6% Murray. Bit awkward actually, but there's only one place to cross the channel.
16 Seattle Magnolia - Queen Anne - Belltown (W) 104584, 76w-9a-6h, 84.0% Obama, 79.8% Murray
17 Seattle West Seattle - Pioneer Square (SW) 97975, 65w-12a-9h-8b, 80.1% Obama, 77.4% Murray
18 Seattle Atlantic - Columbia - Dunlap (SE) 102353, 32a-31w-22b-9h-5m, 86.5% Obama, 86.7% Murray. One of two constituencies where McCain outperfomed Rossi. White VAP plurality.

19 Bellevue NW - Mercer Island 97419, 63w-25a-7h, 64.1% Obama, 55.8% Murray
20 Bellevue SE - Issaquah - Newcastle 101660, 66w-23a-5h, 63.3% Obama, 55.8% Murray
21 Redmond - Kirkland 102788, 68w-19a-7h, 66.0% Obama, 57.8% Murray
22 Bothell - Kingsgate - Woodinville 97690, 78w-10a-7h, 61.8% Obama, 54.7% Murray
23 Sammamish - Duval 95865, 75w-16a, 58.9% Obama, 51.0% Rossi. Didn't miss many tricks to get this into tolerance. Miller River's actually necessary. Cheesy
24 Enumclaw - Maple Valley - Snoqualmie 101782, 87w-5h, 52.9% Obama, 54.3% Rossi
25 Auburn 96185, 68w-12h-10a, 54.2% Obama, 50.7% Rossi. See map below.
26 Federal Way 100947, 53w-16a-16h, 9b-5m, 60.3% Obama, 53.9% Murray
27 Kent - Woodmont Beach 96132, 47w-18h-17a-12b-5m, 63.4% Obama, 56.8% Murray. Shaves off a few blocks on the east end of Kent actually, and splits Milwaukee with 31, and sadly VAP majority.
28 Covington - Fairwood 96046, 66w-15a-8h-6b, 55.5% Obama, 50.6% Rossi
29 Renton 100534, 52w-20a-13h-10b, 65.1% Obama, 58.8% Murray
30 SeaTac 100583, 38w-21a-19h-16b-5m, 71.5% Obama, 68.9% Murray. Splits Burien. Splits along racial (which coincides with beach property) lines.

31 Burien - Vashon - Bainbridge 99450, 78w-9h-6a, 67.3% Obama, 63.0% Murray. And the name doesn't even describe it in full, there's also Normandy Park and coastal Milwaukee and a strip on the Kitsap mainland. Yeah. I am not sure how to get rid of this thing, and (even apart from splitting the City) a link of areas around the Ferry Terminal in Seattle with areas in Kitsap ain't too hot either.

32 Bremerton 104816, 76w-7h-6a, 52.8% Obama, 51.1% Rossi
33 N Kitsap 104603, 79w-6a-6h, 51.4% Obama, 52.6% Rossi

34 Jefferson - Clallam 101276, 86w, 55.9% Obama, 50.3% Murray
35 Grays Harbor - Pacific - Wahkiakum 97695, 83w-8h, 55.6% Obama, 51.7% Murray



36 Mason - Tumwater 104639, 84w-7h, 57.3% Obama, 52.8% Murray
37 Olympia - Lacey 103832, 77w-7a-7h, 65.8% Obama, 62.9% Murray. And unincorporated territory to the north of the two cities (but south of the Inlet).
38 South Thurston 104492, 79w-8h, 52.4% Obama, 51.5% Rossi

7 Pierce County districts.
39 Fort Lewis - Parkland 98676, 61w-11h-10b-9a-8m, 54.5% Obama, 50.8% Murray. Actually excludes the bits of Parkland north of 542.
40 Lakewood - University Place 97454, 61w-11h-10a-10b-7m, 56.8% Obama, 52.3% Murray. And Fircrest and Steilacoom
41 Gig Harbor - Tacoma West End 99262, 84w-5h, 55.1% Obama, 57.2% Murray. You'd think she was a local or something. She's from far northern King. What's up with that?
42 Tacoma North - Fife 100372, 67w-8h-8b-8a-6m, 66.5% Obama, 59.7% Murray
43 Tacoma South - Midland 101747, 46w-17h-14b-14a-8m, 66.0% Obama, 62.1% Murray. VAP majority though, but still this is a massaged borders, minority influence district. The way to improve the figures would be to cut into Lakewood and make that southern extension to 42 even longer. Not worth it.
44 Puyallup - Sumner 101455, 81w-7h, 51.9% Obama, 51.8% Rossi
45 South Hill 100649, 76w-8h-6a-6m, 50.3% McCain, 55.4% Rossi
46 East Pierce 95610, 87w-5h, 51.8% McCain, 58.6% Rossi

47 Lewis - North Cowlitz 97388, 87w-8h, 55.6% McCain, 64.2% Rossi. Cowlitz County could technically stand alone. Technically. For what do I do with Lewis then?
48 Longview - North Clark 102210, 86w-8h, 51.9% Obama, 55.1% Rossi
49 Ridgefield - Salmon Creek (ie suburban Clark W) 98585, 84w-7h, 52.7% Obama, 53.1% Rossi
50 Five Corners - Battle Ground - Fern Prairie 99748, 86w-6h, 52.6% McCain, 60.7% Rossi
51 Vancouver W 101942, 76w-12h, 61.0% Obama, 55.6% Murray
52 Vancouver E - Camas - Washougal 103355, 80w-7a-7h, 52.9% Obama, 54.2% Rossi

53 Yakima S - Klickitat - Skamania 102274, 51h-39w-7n, 53.5% Obama, 53.9% Rossi. White VAP plurality. Bit unfortunate to have to carry Klickitat and Skamania here and drop some Hispanic precincts (no superheavy ones though except in Yakima) nearby. This is not nearly the first district to have a Native presence, of course - several West Washington districts with 2.9% or 3.5% etc. Lotsa small reservations scattered around there.
54 Richland - Moxee 102153, 74w-20, 61.4% McCain, 63.4% Rossi. Boundary through Benton follows either the interstate, the Yakima River, or a city line throughout. Had to bypass Grandview and Sunnyside - needed them for my Hispanic district.
55 Kennewick - Prosser 96192, 70w-24h, 63.0% McCain, 63.8% Rossi
56 Yakima 97114, 52w-42h, 50.7% McCain, 58.8% Rossi. Consists of the two cities of Yakima and Union Gap.
57 Kittitas - N Yakima - W Chelan 102534, 82w-13h, 58.7% McCain, 66.6% Rossi
58 E Chelan - Douglas (or just Wenatchee) 101324, 68w-28h, 57.4% McCain, 65.4% Rossi

59 Grant - Othello 103590, 53w-43h, 62.5% McCain, 69.8% Rossi
60 Franklin - W Walla Walla - E Adams 100182, 50w-44h, 62.6% McCain, 66.8% Rossi. Grant could stand with Lincoln and Franklin with Adams. However that forces a split of Pullman. Even as is, I'm unhappy with having had to include College Place (right by Walla Walla) in this district.
61 Pullman - Walla Walla - Clarkston 102023, 81w-10h, 50.9% McCain, 57.4% Rossi

62 S Spokane county - Lincoln - N Whitman 98591, 57.9% McCain, 64.3% Rossi
63 Spokane Valley 104250, 89w, 53.1% McCain, 59.7% Rossi
64 Spokane city S 95781, 84w, 59.9% Obama, 55.6% Murray. All of the city south of the river and a few precincts north.
65 Spokane city N 97612, 85w-5h, 53.2% Obama, 50.9% Rossi. Entirely within the city and still excludes a few precincts north of Francis Avenue.
66 N Spokane county 97297, 90w, 55.9% McCain, 62.8% Rossi

67 Okanogan - Ferry - Stevens - Pend Oreille 105203 (barely within tolerance), 80w-9h-8n, 55.9% McCain, 64.1% Rossi. Colville and Spokane Reservations.
Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,206
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #134 on: December 11, 2012, 07:58:34 AM »

It lives! 140 North and Central California districts.



1 Siskiyou - Modoc - N Shasta 95515, 82w, 60.7% McCain, 62.9% Whitman. These are 2pp numbers. Races listed from 10.0% on up.
2 Redding 100202, 82w, 62.3% McCain, 64.9% Whitman
3 Tehama - S Shasta 98872, 76w-17h, 63.0% McCain, 65.1% Whitman

4 Arcata - Del Norte - Trinity 95281, 74w-11h, 64.7% Obama, 62.6% Brown. Also the most Native-heavy district in California, probably by a fair pinch. 7.4%. Split of Humboldt Bay conurbation is unavoidable.
5 Eureka - Fort Bragg 99385, 77w-12h, 62.2% Obama, 58.7% Brown
6 Mendocino - N Sonoma 98539, 70w-22h, 73.5% Obama, 68.4% Brown
7 Santa Rosa NW - Windsor - Healdsburg 101363, 61w-30h, 73.1% Obama, 64.9% Brown. See map below.
8 Santa Rosa E 101484, 71w-19h, 74.8% Obama, 66.9% Brown
9 Santa Rosa SW - Rohnert Park 102568, 54w-34h, 76.9% Obama, 69.1% Brown
10 Petaluma - Sebastopol 103363, 74w-18h, 76.4% Obama, 70.4% Brown
11 Novato - Sonoma Valley 101174, 69w-22h, 72.5% Obama, 66.0% Brown
12 San Rafael 95708, 69w-21h, 80.9% Obama, 74.9% Brown
13 S & W Marin 98049, 80w, 82.4% Obama, 74.0% Brown



14 Napa - American Canyon 102952, 52w-35h, 68.0% Obama, 62.6% Brown
15 Lake - Napa Valley 98197, 73w-19h, 61.3% Obama, 55.6% Brown

16 Glenn - Colusa - Oroville 102362, 58w-32h, 59.6% McCain, 62.8% Whitman
17 Chico 102336, 75w-15h, 60.5% Obama, 53.6% Brown
18 Paradise - Lassen - Plumas 96710, 80w-11h, 58.6% McCain, 57.4% Whitman
19 Yuba - Lake Oroville - Sierra 98430, 64w-22h, 58.9% McCain, 58.9% Whitman

20 Sutter 96330, 50w-29h-14a, 58.1% McCain, 59.7% Whitman. Because the county is just outside tolerance, this includes one block group (Knights Landing) from Yolo County.
21 Woodland - West Sacramento 102498, 45w-40h, 60.0% Obama, 60.2% Brown
22 Davis - W Yolo 96758, 56w-20h-19a, 74.3% Obama, 70.8% Brown. Davis is insanely Democratic. It's basically an inland enclave of Berkeley. It's also slightly larger than Woodland or W Sacramento and slightly too large to be combined with either. The rural areas to the west of the county voted for Obama by a whisker or two, I think.

23 Nevada 98764, 87w, 52.7% Obama, 52.1% Whitman. Whole county.



24 Lake Tahoe 100411, 80w-14h, 51.9% Obama, 53.1% Whitman. Also includes Alpine County (contrary to what's shown on the first map.)
25 Placerville - Cameron Park 104772, 80w-11h, 58.1% McCain, 62.5% Whitman
26 Auburn - Lincoln 102151, 79w-13h, 56.4% McCain, 59.7% Whitman
27 Rocklin - Granite Bay 99789, 79w, 58.9% McCain, 64.0% Whitman
28 Roseville 101282, 70w-15h, 54.7% McCain, 57.8% Whitman
29 Citrus Heights - Roseville S 95025, 74w-15h, 54.5% McCain, 53.9% Whitman.

next 13 districts wholly in Sacramento County...
30 Folsom - Orangevale 98737, 71w-11h-10a, 55.3% McCain, 57.9% Whitman
31 Carmichael - Fair Oaks 100657, 76w-11h, 50.4% Obama, 50.5% Whitman
32 Rancho Cordova 98862, 53w-19h-13a, 56.8% Obama, 56.9% Brown
33 Arden Town - La Riviera 102248, 62w-19h, 58.4% Obama, 57.2% Brown
34 Antelope - Elverta 98574, 61w-18h, 51.2% Obama, 53.3% Brown
35 Sacramento Arcade - Foothill Farms 99593, 43w-29h-13b-10a, 62.3% Obama, 63.4% Brown
36 Sacramento Creekside - Natomas 104327, 32w-28h-20a-14b, 71.8% Obama, 69.6% Brown
37 Sacramento Central 97689, 61w-18h, 74.1% Obama, 72.2% Brown
38 Sacramento Pocket - Meadowview 95688, 30w-26a-23h-16b, 72.0% Obama, 73.4% Brown
39 Sacramento Cordova - Tahoe Park 95894, 39h-25w-18a-13b, 76.1% Obama, 79.0% Brown
40 Sacramento South - Florin 100308, 29h-28a-20w-18b, 71.3% Obama, 73.5% Brown. Asian VAP plurality. Actually takes the first half of its name from the neighborhood South Sacramento.
41 Sacramento Laguna 98187, 30a-30w-20h-14b, 65.0% Obama, 65.5% Brown. White VAP plurality.
42 Elk Grove 98854, 41w-26a-18h, 55.1% Obama, 56.8% Brown

43 Galt - Dixon 95949, 58w-30h, 54.6% McCain, 54.8% Whitman

44 Vacaville 100096, 53w-22h-10b, 54.9% Obama, 53.0% Brown
45 Fairfield 104742, 33w-29h-17b-14a, 66.7% Obama, 63.2% Brown
46 Vallejo 104366, 25w-25a-24h-22b, 76.2% Obama, 76.0% Brown. Best racial breakdown ever.

47 Vallejo SE - Benicia - Hercules 100936, 41w-25a-16h-12b, 70.4% Obama, 66.7% Brown. Ugly. But hard to avoid unless you want to draw Galt - Oakley, which I don't. And even then you're just including Dixon instead of the Contra Costa bit.

48 Martinez - Concord NW 100053, 52w-30h-10a, 70.7% Obama, 66.2% Brown. The municipal lines around Concord / Walnut Creek / Pleasant Hill do not coincide with precinct lines, major roads, or demographics, and in the end they were largely ignored in this area.
49 Concord SE - Clayton 100326, 63w-18h-12a, 64.1% Obama, 57.7% Brown
50 Pittsburg 96528, 43h-24w-15b-14a, 76.1% Obama, 73.8% Brown
51 Antioch 99503, 37w-31h-16b-11a, 69.1% Obama, 65.6% Brown
52 Brentwood - Oakley 103685, 55w-29h, 57.1% Obama, 52.9% Brown
53 San Ramon 97401, 54w-31a(!), 59.1% Obama, 52.3% Whitman(!) See also map below.
54 Walnut Creek E - Danville 103110, 77w-11a, 61.6% Obama, 52.8% Brown
55 Walnut Creek W - Pleasant Hill - Lafayette - Orinda - Morega - Kensington (strike whatever you consider least relevant!) 104461, 75w-11a, 69.8% Obama, 61.4% Brown
56 El Cerrito - Pinole - San Pablo E 104588, 34w-24h-22a-16b, 82.6% Obama, 80.7% Brown
57 Richmond - San Pablo W 102849, <50h-23b-13w-11a, 90.6% Obama, 88.9% Brown



58 Berkeley - Albany 100562, 58w-24a, 93.7% Obama, 92.4% Brown
59 Oakland Hoover - Berkeley Marina 102745, 35b-31w-15h-14a, 96.2% Obama, 95.0% Brown (a North California record)
60 Oakland Hills 104439, 63w-13a-11b, 89.5% Obama, 87.5% Brown
61 Oakland Sausal Creek - Allendale - Zoo 104584, 36b-22h-21a-17w, 93.3% Obama, 92.4% Brown. More a result of the ones north and southwest of it than anything else. Even though it is the most strongly Black district north of LA and west of Dallas.
62 Oakland Fruitvale - Fitchburg 101384, 56h-27b-11a, 95.1% Obama, 93.9% Brown. And yes, I noticed the blank precinct visible in the screenshot (and also the ones in Placer and San Mateo.) It's corrected in the data. Kiss
63 Alameda - Oakland Laney 102745, 37w-36a-12h, 80.9% Obama, 78.8% Brown
64 San Leandro 103684, 30h-28a-25w-13b, 77.7% Obama, 76.2% Brown. Asian VAP plurality.
65 Castro Valley - Hayward E 102676, 44w-21a-20h-11b, 72.4% Obama, 69.6% Brown
66 Hayward NW - San Lorenzo 95459, 45h-21w-20a-10b, 78.1% Obama, 76.1% Brown
67 Hayward S - Union City E 99297, 41h-32a-15w- 79.4% Obama, 76.0% Brown
68 Newark - Fremont Ardenwood - Union City W 96957, 49a-21h-20w, 74.8% Obama, 69.0% Brown
69 Fremont N 96569, 40a-32w-19h, 71.9% Obama, 66.4% Brown
70 Fremont S 97101, 57a-24w-12h, 72.2% Obama, 62.5% Brown
71 Pleasanton - Dublin 100516, 56w-22a-13h, 63.1% Obama, 53.8% Brown
72 Livermore 101601, 62w-18h-13a, 58.2% Obama, 50.2% Brown
Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,206
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #135 on: December 11, 2012, 08:51:13 AM »

73 San Francisco Marina - Pacific Heights 96220, 69w-19a, 82.0% Obama, 70.9% Brown
74 San Francisco Downtown - Chinatown 100310, 41a-36w-13h, 85.6% Obama, 81.8% Brown. Surprised how densely residential the area remains. Very unamerican, somehow. (And unbritish or, I admit it, ungerman either.)
75 San Francisco Mission - Potrero - Bernal Heights 97263, 41w-32h-18a, 91.9% Obama, 89.0% Brown
76 San Francisco Castro - Noe Valley - Haight-Ashbury (or I suppose "Castro" might suffice on its own?) 103489, 68w-12h-11a, 94.4% Obama, 91.6% Brown. Weird westward trough is Golden Gate Park.
77 San Francisco Richmond - Alamo Square 96345, 43w-39a, 84.6% Obama, 80.5% Brown. Eastward extension to Alamo Square and into parts of Hayes Valley covers some more downmarket, racially mixed areas between the two whitest parts of the city in Castro proper and most of district 73.
78 San Francisco Sunset 103405, 51a-38w, 80.4% Obama, 76.4% Brown
79 San Francisco Ingleside 103672, 41a-33w-17h, 82.0% Obama, 78.3% Brown
80 San Francisco Bayview - Portola 104531, 46a-27h-15b (oh yes. Not many Whites though), 84.2% Obama, 81.9% Brown

81 Daly City 103157, 56a-23h-14w, 75.5% Obama, 75.3% Brown
82 Pacifica - Half Moon Bay 101328, 50w-25a-19h, 74.5% Obama, 71.2% Brown
83 South San Francisco - San Bruno - Milbrae 104311, 38w-33h-31a, 75.5% Obama, 72.6% Brown
84 San Mateo N - Burlingame 102036, 51w-23h-21a, 70.9% Obama, 62.6% Brown
85 San Mateo S - Foster City - Belmont - Shearwater 104313, 51w-30a-12h, 71.9% Obama, 64.9% Brown. Shearwater is that bit of Redwood City far from the other populated portions.
86 Redwood city E - East Palo Alto 98940, 60h-22w, 82.6% Obama, 78.5% Brown
87 Redwood City SW - San Carlos - Menlo Park 104366, 76w-10a, 71.0% Obama, 61.7% Brown. Very crass color line here, by West Coast standards especially.



88 Palo Alto - Loyola 95426, 61w-27a, 78.6% Obama, 69.2% Brown
89 Mountain View - Los Altos 100924, 51w-26a-17h, 75.6% Obama, 68.0% Brown
90 Saratoga - Campbell 100635, 50w-35a-10h, 67.3% Obama, 56.8% Brown
91 Cupertino - Sunnyvale S 101500, 56a-34w, 72.2% Obama 62.1% Brown
92 Sunnyvale 101436, 39a-31w-24h, 73.6% Obama, 68.0% Brown
93 Santa Clara 103079, 39w-34a-21h, 72.7% Obama, 67.3% Brown
94 Milipitas - River Oaks - Agnew 98685, 60a-18w-16h, 68.6% Obama, 62.5% Brown
95 San Jose Berryessa 97160, 63a-18h-13w, 67.2% Obama, 63.3% Brown
96 San Jose Alum Rock - East Foothills 99646, 61h-24w-12w, 75.2% Obama, 73.3% Brown
97 San Jose Centerwood - Meadowlands 102353, 54a-25h-16w, 68.3% Obama, 63.0% Brown
98 San Jose Downtown - Roberts 104166, 57h-21a-17w, 80.3% Obama, 78.5% Brown
99 San Jose Blackford - College Park 101487, 39w-31h-23a, 74.4% Obama, 67.8% Brown
100 San Jose Willow Glen 98336, 55w-25h-13a, 69.7% Obama, 62.8% Brown
101 San Jose Atlanta - Summerside - San Ramon 100680, <50h-33a-13w, 70.4% Obama, 66.9% Brown
102 San Jose Carson - Calero 95901, 35w-33h-23a, 69.4% Obama, 63.4% Brown
103 San Jose Almaden Valley - Belgatos 101100, 59w-20a-16h, 64.9% Obama, 56.1% Brown
104 Morgan Hill - San Jose Silver Leaf 99857, 47w-32h-15a, 62.2% Obama, 53.6% Brown



105 San Benito - Gilroy 96905, 60h-33w, 65.1% Obama, 57.7% Brown
106 Santa Cruz Mountains - Los Gatos 104791, 81w, 71.2% Obama, 63.3% Brown
107 Santa Cruz 99812, 68w-21h, 85.8% Obama, 80.5% Brown
108 Watsonville 103211, 60h-34w, 75.4% Obama, 68.5% Brown. Carves into Monterey. That *can* be avoided, but it gets very ugly in Monterey and drives down the Hispanic share in Watsonville.
109 Salinas N - Marina - Prunedale 102759, 58h-26w, 69.5% Obama, 64.6% Brown
110 Salinas S 102759, 79h-14w, 72.6% Obama, 69.0% Brown
111 Monterey 102366, 61w-22h, 70.6% Obama, 62.4% Brown
112 Salinas Valley 99633, 62h-31w, 64.3% Obama, 58.6% Brown

113 Lodi 96246, 54w-34h, 59.8% McCain, 61.7% Whitman. Yeah, most of this district is not shown in any of these screenshots. You can still see where it is, though.
114 Stockton N 98428, 29a-28w-28h-10b, 59.1% Obama, 56.9% Brown. White VAP plurality.
115 Stockton NC 97996, 36w-33h-17a, 59.3% Obama, 55.4% Brown
116 Stockton SC 101538, 63h-17w, 74.7% Obama, 74.0% Brown
117 Stockton S - Lathrop - Escalon 95455, 44h-30w-14a, 57.0% Obama, 53.2% Brown. Bit awkward leftovers district.
118 Tracy 99179, 37w-35h-17a, 61.2% Obama, 55.3% Brown
119 Manteca 96464, 52w-34h, 53.0% McCain, 56.5% Whitman

120 Modesto NW 101083, 53w-33h, 52.0% Obama, 52.2% Whitman
121 Modesto NE 104850, 56w-31h, 50.5% McCain, 54.3% Whitman
122 Modesto S 103690, 62h-28w, 64.3% Obama, 62.0% Brown
123 W Stanislaus (aka Patterson - Turlock SW) 103637, 56h-35w, 54.8% Obama, 50.5% Whitman
124 E Stanislaus (aka Turlock NE - Oakdale) 101203, 64w-28h, 58.6% McCain, 62.6% Whitman

125 Amador - Calaveras - N Tuolumne 100659, 83w-11h, 56.6% McCain, 56.9% Whitman
126 Yosemite - Death Valley 104847, 77w-15h, 55.4% McCain, 58.2% Whitman. Includes Mariposa, Mono, Inyo, most of Tuolumne, and part of Madera counties.
127 Madera 99044, 69h-25w, 51.7% McCain, 54.7% Whitman. Yeah.
128 Merced NE - Chowchilla 98163, 46w-37h, 53.0% McCain, 58.5% Whitman. White VAP majority.
129 Merced SW - Los Banos 96575, 62h-26w, 60.8% Obama, 54.5% Brown
130 Atwater - Livingston 97403, 57h-33w, 52.5% Obama, 54.5% Whitman

131 Mendota - Coalinga - Corcoran 97510, 72h-18w, 57.1% Obama, 58.4% Brown. Curves around to take in all of southern Kings County outside the map.
132 Hanford - Lemoore 104510, 44h-43w, 59.0% McCain, 58.8% Whitman. White VAP plurality.
133 Selma - Kerman 96526, 71h-21w, 50.4% Obama, 55.2% Whitman
134 Fresno W 96387, 56h-16w-13a-13b, 69.5% Obama, 66.1% Brown
135 Fresno NW 99116, 52w-30h, 52.7% McCain, 60.7% Whitman
136 Fresno NE 101509, 52w-27h-13a, 53.5% McCain, 60.3% Whitman
137 Fresno WC 99501, 57h-25w, 69.2% Obama, 64.9% Brown
138 Fresno EC 99696, 66h-14a-12w, 71.5% Obama, 69.3% Brown
139 Fresno E - Clovis S 95689, 38w-37h-17a, 50.5% McCain, 56.5% Whitman
140 Clovis N - E Fresno county 95467, 65w-20h, 64.3% McCain, 71.2% Whitman
141 Reedley - Sanger - Kingsburg 96508, 76h-20w, 52.0% Obama, 51.9% Whitman

Ignore the Tulare County map. That is entirely preliminary and needs to be aligned with a yet to be even sketched Kern County map. Indeed, all of Southern California bar SLO/Santa Barbara is yet to be even glanced at (beyond apportioning districts to counties.) And progress is slow. Silverlight keeps crashing.
Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,206
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #136 on: December 12, 2012, 05:41:20 AM »

No comment? I hate you all and I want you to die. Cry
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,520
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #137 on: December 12, 2012, 05:48:03 AM »

Good work! Looking forward to seeing SoCal. When you are all done are we going to get Obama v. McCain totals nationwide?
Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,206
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #138 on: December 12, 2012, 07:17:16 AM »

Good work! Looking forward to seeing SoCal. When you are all done are we going to get Obama v. McCain totals nationwide?
Some states don't have that data up in the DRA.

I just notice I'm off by a district somehow; the current plan works out to 372 rather than 373 districts. How did that happen!?

The easiest way to fix it now will be to draw 99 districts of app. 99200 rather than 98 districts of app. 100150 in LA County. So that's the new plan:

142-5 Tulare. 146 Kern/Tulare. 147-54 Kern. 155-6 SLO. 157 SLO/Sta Barbara. 158-61 Sta Barbara. 162-9 Ventura (actually all this is pretty much done, just needs a little refining). 170-268 LA. 269-98 Orange. 299-318 San Bernardino. 319 Riverside/SB. 320-340 Riverside. 341 Imperial/Riverside. 342 Imperial. 343-73 SD.
Logged
Sbane
sbane
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,303


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #139 on: December 12, 2012, 03:25:40 PM »

No comment? I hate you all and I want you to die. Cry

I just saw this, and I want you to know that you are awesome. Good job!
Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,206
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #140 on: December 22, 2012, 07:24:34 AM »



142 Dinuba - Woodlake Junction - Exeter 101131, 73h-24w, 56.6% McCain, 60.7% Whitman
143 Visalia 97826, 49h-41w, 57.8% McCain, 61.2% Whitman, White VAP plurality
144 Tulare 101208, 51h-41w, 60.7% McCain, 64.2% Whitman, White VAP plurality
145 Porterville 101925, 61h-32w, 56.5% McCain, 55.3% Whitman

You're not drawing a genuine Hispanic opportunity in Tulare County without splitting the cities up. 142 and 145 will probably elect Azorean Republicans, though.

146 Delano - Earlimart 95248, 76h-10w, 61.8% Obama, 62.8% Brown. Quite the change, huh.
147 Ridgecrest - Edwards 94882, 63w-23h, 65.1% McCain, 66.8% Whitman
148 Tehachapi - Arvin - Taft 97471, 52w-42h, 66.4% McCain, 64.8% Whitman. Sorry about that excursion into the northeastern Bakersfield exurbs. All done to enable the creation of district 154 while keeping the populations for two districts east of it. Though ideally Arvin belongs in 154 as well, and it needs to lose that huge block group southwest of Bakersfield. Can't be done with contiguity, alas. Further west the place where the 148-154, oil business-agrobusiness, white dominant-hispanic dominant boundary belongs is entirely clearcut.
149 Oildale - Bakersfield N 97890, 59w-31h, 64.0% McCain, 64.5% Whitman
150 Bakersfield E 96765, 75h-16w, 58.0% Obama, 57.9% Brown
151 Bakersfield SE 98673, 66h-19w, 59.8% Obama, 58.2% Brown
152 Bakersfield SW 100065, 45h-36w, 55.4% McCain, 55.6% Whitman. Hispanic VAP plurality, but obviously not a Hispanic opportunity district.
153 Bakersfield NW - Greenacres 99753, 65w-22h, 71.9% McCain, 72.4% Whitman
154 Wasco - Shafter - Lamont 98973, 77h-17w, 50.3% Obama, 50.3% Whitman



155 Atascadero - Paso Robles 101146, 71w-23h, 55.6% McCain, 58.6% Whitman
156 San Luis Obispo - Morro Bay 100187, 74w-14h, 63.8% Obama, 57.8% Brown
157 Arroyo Grande - Santa Maria E 96998, 64w-28h, 55.2% McCain, 60.3% Whitman
158 Santa Maria 99456, 75h-18w, 55.2% Obama, 51.7% Brown. Maxpack. Sorry about the threeway split of the Santa Maria / Orcutt area, but it's unavoidable unless you're ready to let 157 take Solvang.
159 Lompoc 96077, 54w-36h, 54.3% McCain, 62.8% Whitman
160 Goleta - Santa Barbara E 101450, 62w-25h, 70.5% Obama, 59.6% Brown
161 Santa Barbara - Carpinteria 98218, 55w-39h, 74.2% Obama, 62.7% Brown



162 Santa Paula - Ojai - Paseo del Mar 100958, 57h-40w, 63.2% Obama, 57.1% Brown. Paseo del Mar is that distinct neighborhood/canyon on the northwestern end of Ventura. Heavily Hispanic for some reason.
163 Ventura 102015, 61w-29h, 60.3% Obama, 52.7% Brown
164 Oxnard N 103986, 79h-11w, 75.3% Obama, 70.7% Brown
165 Oxnard S - Port Hueneme 103212, 63h-24w, 65.6% Obama, 60.9% Brown
166 Camarillo 104398, 53w-34h, 50.9% Obama, 57.1% Whitman
167 Thousand Oaks 103262, 74w-14h, 52.4% Obama, 58.2% Whitman
168 Thousand Oaks N - Moorpark - Simi Valley W 101050, 67w-22h, 50.4% McCain, 60.2% Whitman
169 Simi Valley 104437, 62w-24h, 52.0% McCain, 61.1% Whitman

Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,206
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #141 on: December 22, 2012, 08:32:29 AM »

LA County. As mentioned earlier, this got an extra seat... and I had to add that extra seat belatedly and couldn't add it in the area where I had 20k people left over on the first draft, which was in West Covina. The most surplus populations overall were in central and south central LA, so that's where the extra seat went... and where seats are all on the low end of the allowed range now, to the point where you can call it systematic bias if you like. (I did move some slight bit of San Fernando Valley and, like, three precincts from east of the city in to make it marginally easier.)



170 Antelope Valley 100999, 51w-32h, 55.3% McCain, 61.6% Whitman
171 Lancaster W 97258, 45w-31h-16b, 55.1% McCain, 58.5% Whitman
172 Lancaster E 97406, 47h-28w-19b, 57.2% Obama, 53.9% Brown
173 Palmdale 101970, 64h-16w-15b, 68.0% Obama, 65.4% Brown
174 Santa Clarita N 101785, 63w-19h-11a, 51.0% McCain, 60.5% Whitman
175 Santa Clarita E 95871, 44w-40h, 50.8% Obama, 57.5% Whitman
176 Santa Clarita S - Val Verde - Porter Ranch 99792, 52w-22h-18a, 53.1% Obama, 56.5% Whitman

Names in the city of Los Angeles may be off, obviously.

177 San Fernando - Sylmar 103709, 81h-11w, 73.9% Obama, 70.9% Brown
178 Pacoima - San Fernando Gardens 95296, 89h, 86.7% Obama, 84.8% Brown
179 Sunland - Tujunga - Shadow Hills 97720, 46w-39h, 60.9% Obama, 56.6% Brown



180 Sun Valley 95910, 73h-16w, 79.6% Obama, 77.4% Brown
181 North Hollywood - Valley Glen 95081, 56w-29h, 75.5% Obama, 72.5% Brown
182 Sherman Oaks 99534, 66w-20h, 76.5% Obama, 70.6% Brown
183 Van Nuys 102322, 61h-24w, 77.2% Obama, 73.9% Brown
184 Panorama City 104235, 75h-13a, 76.3% Obama, 73.9% Brown
185 North Hills - Mission Hills 100688, 55h-26w-13a, 67.0% Obama, 61.7% Brown
186 Northridge - Chatsworth 96255, 50w-23h-19a, 60.3% Obama, 52.1% Brown. Just over 50%.
187 Reseda 100062, 52h-29w-12a, 70.5% Obama, 65.6% Brown. No VAP majority.
188 Winnetka 97002, 55h-24w-14a, 69.3% Obama, 63.1% Brown
189 West Hills 101903, 66w-14h-12a, 64.1% Obama, 55.8% Brown
190 Encino - Tarzana 97310, 72w-14h, 67.4% Obama, 60.1% Brown

191 Topanga - Calabasas 99277, 82w, 62.7% Obama, 53.0% Brown
192 Santa Monica - Pacific Palisades 101956, 72w-12h, 79.0% Obama, 72.5% Brown
193 West LA 97533, 66w-16a-11h, 76.5% Obama, 69.8% Brown
194 Beverly Hills - Brentwood 96550, 71w-16a, 68.0% Obama, 59.8% Brown
195 West Hollywood - Universal City 97704, 77w-10h, 81.6% Obama, 76.1% Brown. The crossmountain district.
196 Silver Lake - Hollywood Hills 95029, 57w-23h-13a, 84.6% Obama, 81.8% Brown
197 Eagle Rock 99631, 56h-21w-19a, 77.5% Obama, 77.3% Brown
198 El Sereno - Arroyo Seco 102337, 76h-14a, 81.9% Obama, 82.2% Brown
199 Downtown - Chinatown - Elysian Park 98263, 44h-27a-18w, 81.4% Obama, 82.2% Brown
200 Boyle Heights 102033, 87h, 87.4% Obama, 89.0% Brown
201 City West - Union 96012, 77h-13a, 79.1% Obama, 82.1% Brown
202 Westlake - Lafayette Park 96867, 57h-29a, 79.6% Obama, 82.4% Brown
203 Virgil Village - Sunset 99055, 58h-22w-15a, 80.6% Obama, 81.7% Brown
204 Wilshire 95459, 42h-40a, 77.6% Obama, 79.5% Brown. Asian VAP plurality.
205 Hancock Park - La Brea 96764, 65w-14a-12h, 79.0% Obama, 75.5% Brown
206 Pico - West Addams Terrace 95591, 62h-19b, 88.7% Obama, 89.5% Brown
207 West Addams - Lafayette Square 95834, 50h-29b-14w, 91.7% Obama, 89.8% Brown. Just over 50%, though not on VAP obviously.
208 Culver City - Beverlywood 99006, 50w-20h-18a, 79.2% Obama, 75.6% Brown. Just over.
209 Venice 96346, 61w-21h-11a, 80.7% Obama, 75.3% Brown

210 Hyde Park - Windsor Hills - Leimert Park 94929, 66b-24h, 95.8% Obama, 94.0% Brown. It's probably no coincidence that what was once the most respectable part of an overwhelmingly Black South Central is now the part to remain Blackest... (A: "Ladera Heights is, like, the Black Beverly Hills". B: "Not quite that. It's more like, the Black Palos Verdes.", (c) Quentin Tarantino.)
211 Chesterfield Square 95366, 68h-29b, 93.7% Obama, 93.2% Brown



212 Westmont - Manchester Square 100776, 48b-48h, 96.4% Obama, 95.5% Brown. Black VAP majority. Also, most Democratic district in California (unless the four remaining counties cough up a stronger one, which I might not even believe when I see it), barely edging out the best that Oakland has to offer.
213 University Park - Pueblo del Rio 94977, 83h, 89.5% Obama, 89.7% Brown. The couple of janitors living on the job in the all-commercial-properties "city" of Vernon *just* move this into tolerance. Grin
214 South Park 95682, 82h-16b, 93.6% Obama, 92.4% Brown
215 Avalon Gardens- Figueroa 96552, 64h-32b, 93.1% Obama, 91.9% Brown
216 Willowbrook - Watts - West Compton 96931, 96931, 63h-35b, 95.5% Obama, 95.0% Brown
217 Compton 97569, 70h-27b, 95.1% Obama, 94.6% Brown
218 Carson NW - Normandie 97949, 35h-25a-24b-13w, 75.7% Obama, 75.5% Brown
219 Wilmington - Carson SE 96065, 71h-16a, 73.6% Obama, 75.3% Brown

220 Playa del Rey - El Segundo 95726, 51w-24h-12a, 68.1% Obama, 61.0% Brown
221 Inglewood 103661, 50h-44b, 93.7% Obama, 92.4% Brown. Just under 50, and Black plurality VAP
222 Hawthorne W - Lawndale - Lennox 95609, 67h-15w, 72.9% Obama, 69.0% Brown
223 Hawthorne E - Gardena N - West Athens 102234, 48h-35b, 87.1% Obama, 85.9% Brown
224 Torrance N - Gardena S 97626, 37a-28w-25h, 57.9% Obama, 54.3% Brown
225 Torrance S - Lomita 96311, 44w-30a-19h, 52.9% Obama, 53.2% Whitman
226 Manhattan Beach - Hermosa Beach - Redondo NE 97877, 72w-12h, 60.0% Obama, 50.7% Whitman
227 Palos Verdes - Redondo Beach 98619, 65w-21a, 50.1% Obama (lol), 58.4% Whitman
228 San Pedro 99813, 48h-35w, 67.8% Obama, 63.8% Brown

229 Long Beach S - Santa Catalina Island 103975, 57w-23h, 68.6% Obama, 60.8% Brown
230 Long Beach C 102746, 59h-15b-13a-10w, 83.1% Obama, 81.4% Brown
231 Long Beach W - Signal Hill 103194, 41h-22a-18w-16b, 73.8% Obama, 70.4% Brown
232 Long Beach NW 101795, 53h-20b-14a-11w, 78.8% Obama, 76.4% Brown. No VAP majority.
233 Long Beach E - Lakewood S 103851, 59w-22h-10a, 55.3% Obama, 50.5% Brown
234 Bellflower - Lakewood N 102767, 46h-25w-13a-13b, 63.4% Obama, 59.7% Brown

235 Downey 100055, 70h-18w, 62.5% Obama, 59.8% Brown
236 Paramount 97358, 81h, 80.4% Obama, 78.7% Brown. Augmented with bits and pieces of surrounding municipalities.
237 Lynwood - South Gate E 96718, 91h, 85.7% Obama, 84.9% Brown
238 Florence - South Gate W 100227, 93h, 91.0% Obama, 89.2% Brown
239 Huntington Park - Maywood 101469, 97h, 85.5% Obama, 85.9% Brown
240 Bell - Cudahy - Bell Gardens 101019, 95h, 84.2% Obama, 84.2% Brown
241 Montebello - Commerce 103397, 87h, 79.3% Obama, 80.0% Brown
242 East LA 97576, 97h, 87.4% Obama, 89.0% Brown



243 Rosemead - South San Gabriel 97282, 57a-37h, 69.1% Obama, 70.4% Brown
244 Monterey Park - Alhambra W 98024, 59a-32h, 68.0% Obama, 66.8% Brown
245 San Gabriel - Alhambra E - San Marino 99342, 54a-26h-17w, 59.4% Obama, 54.3% Brown

246 Burbank 103340, 58w-25h-11a, 65.5% Obama, 59.6% Brown. Exact match with municipal borders! The same is true for Glendale as well.
247 Glendale S 95483, 56w-23h-16a, 71.8% Obama, 69.0% Brown
248 Glendale N 95307, 68w-16a-12h, 62.2% Obama, 54.0% Brown
249 Pasadena W - South Pasadena - La Canada Flintridge 103887, 55w-26a-13h, 62.8% Obama, 55.5% Brown
250 Pasadena C - Altadena W 96753, 45h-23w-19b(!), 83.6% Obama, 79.8% Brown
251 Pasadena E - Altadena E - Monrovia N 97617, 56w-21h-15a, 61.3% Obama, 54.9% Brown. Monrovia falls into unusually (for suburban LA County) clearcut White, Asian and Hispanic sections and has been split according.
252 Arcadia - Temple City - Monrovia SW 103835, 52a-25w-19h, 54.7% Obama, 50.6% Whitman
253 Azusa - Duarte - Monrovia SE 102614, 65h-19w, 67.6% Obama, 65.2% Brown
254 El Monte 100123, 70h-24a, 73.2% Obama, 75.0% Brown
255 Pico Rivera - South El Monte 99578, 89h, 76.4% Obama, 77.7% Brown

256 Cerritos - Artesia - Hawaiian Gardens 97089, 44a-31h-16w, 60.3% Obama, 56.8% Brown
257 Norwalk 103523, 70h-12w-12a, 69.5% Obama, 68.7% Brown. Another perfect match.
258 La Mirada - La Habra Heights 95328, 45h-39w-12a, 51.2% McCain(!), 55.1% Whitman. White VAP plurality.
259 Whittier S - Los Nietos 100012, 81h-14w, 68.1% Obama, 66.7% Brown
260 Whittier - Hacienda Heights 100638, 56h-22a-20w, 60.5% Obama, 57.2% Brown
261 Puente Valley 104135, 85h, 76.9% Obama, 77.9% Brown
262 Baldwin Park - West Covina W 100857, 75h-15a, 73.7% Obama, 73.9% Brown
263 Covina - West Covina E 104286, 62h-19w-14a, 63.7% Obama, 61.9% Brown
264 Glendora - San Dimas - Covina N 101867, 50w-36h, 51.9% McCain(!), 56.4% Whitman. Under 50 on total, but over on VAP of course
265 La Verne - Claremont - Pomona N 104297, 47w-33h-10a, 58.4% Obama, 53.6% Brown. VAP majority.
266 Pomona S 98524, 80h, 77.6% Obama, 76.9% Brown
267 Walnut - Pomona Westmont - West Covina Shadow Oaks 100185, 40a-35h-17w, 59.8% Obama, 54.7% Brown
268 Diamond Bar - Rowland Hills 97905, 57a-23h-16w, 56.5% Obama, 50.8% Brown
 
Logged
Tetro Kornbluth
Gully Foyle
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,846
Ireland, Republic of


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #142 on: December 22, 2012, 12:03:03 PM »

Amazing thread.

I tried to find it but so didn't.. what is the most McCain district so far?
Logged
jimrtex
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,828
Marshall Islands


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #143 on: December 22, 2012, 12:53:22 PM »

142 Dinuba - Woodlake Junction - Exeter 101131, 73h-24w, 56.6% McCain, 60.7% Whitman
143 Visalia 97826, 49h-41w, 57.8% McCain, 61.2% Whitman, White VAP plurality
144 Tulare 101208, 51h-41w, 60.7% McCain, 64.2% Whitman, White VAP plurality
145 Porterville 101925, 61h-32w, 56.5% McCain, 55.3% Whitman

You're not drawing a genuine Hispanic opportunity in Tulare County without splitting the cities up. 142 and 145 will probably elect Azorean Republicans, though.
What is an Azorean Republican?
Logged
Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)
Vazdul
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,295
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #144 on: December 22, 2012, 05:46:18 PM »

142 Dinuba - Woodlake Junction - Exeter 101131, 73h-24w, 56.6% McCain, 60.7% Whitman
143 Visalia 97826, 49h-41w, 57.8% McCain, 61.2% Whitman, White VAP plurality
144 Tulare 101208, 51h-41w, 60.7% McCain, 64.2% Whitman, White VAP plurality
145 Porterville 101925, 61h-32w, 56.5% McCain, 55.3% Whitman

You're not drawing a genuine Hispanic opportunity in Tulare County without splitting the cities up. 142 and 145 will probably elect Azorean Republicans, though.
What is an Azorean Republican?

A Republican of Azorean ancestry, of course.
Logged
Sbane
sbane
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,303


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #145 on: December 22, 2012, 07:07:41 PM »

Whoa, didn't even notice how much that San Ramon-Blackhawk district swung to Whitman! I haven't looked at all of it closely, but you seem to have a done an excellent job keeping communities of interest together.
Logged
nclib
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,303
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #146 on: December 22, 2012, 07:48:19 PM »

Good work! Looking forward to seeing SoCal. When you are all done are we going to get Obama v. McCain totals nationwide?
Some states don't have that data up in the DRA.

I think some of the New England states have since put that data up. It would be good to see that data.

It would also be interesting to list Obama districts in solidly McCain states (or Obama NHWhite majority in the South and Southwest). I'll start with Utah.

Districts 9, 10, 11, 13, 15 in Utah, all in the Salt Lake City area, which all border each other.


9 East Millcreek - Holladay - Park City 96363, 87-7, 55.6% Obama
10 Salt Lake City South 99040, 75-15, 67.7% Obama. And South Salt Lake.
11 Salt Lake City North 100042, 58-28-8 asian, 68.7% Obama
13 West Valley City North 95729, 53-34-9 asian, 50.6% Obama
15 Murray - Taylorsville East 99866, 77-14, 49.6% Obama



Logged
jimrtex
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,828
Marshall Islands


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #147 on: December 22, 2012, 08:39:33 PM »

142 Dinuba - Woodlake Junction - Exeter 101131, 73h-24w, 56.6% McCain, 60.7% Whitman
143 Visalia 97826, 49h-41w, 57.8% McCain, 61.2% Whitman, White VAP plurality
144 Tulare 101208, 51h-41w, 60.7% McCain, 64.2% Whitman, White VAP plurality
145 Porterville 101925, 61h-32w, 56.5% McCain, 55.3% Whitman

You're not drawing a genuine Hispanic opportunity in Tulare County without splitting the cities up. 142 and 145 will probably elect Azorean Republicans, though.
What is an Azorean Republican?

A Republican of Azorean ancestry, of course.
In Central California?
Logged
Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)
Vazdul
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,295
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #148 on: December 22, 2012, 09:16:28 PM »

142 Dinuba - Woodlake Junction - Exeter 101131, 73h-24w, 56.6% McCain, 60.7% Whitman
143 Visalia 97826, 49h-41w, 57.8% McCain, 61.2% Whitman, White VAP plurality
144 Tulare 101208, 51h-41w, 60.7% McCain, 64.2% Whitman, White VAP plurality
145 Porterville 101925, 61h-32w, 56.5% McCain, 55.3% Whitman

You're not drawing a genuine Hispanic opportunity in Tulare County without splitting the cities up. 142 and 145 will probably elect Azorean Republicans, though.
What is an Azorean Republican?

A Republican of Azorean ancestry, of course.
In Central California?


Yes indeed. Congressman Devin Nunes would be one such example.
Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,206
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #149 on: December 23, 2012, 05:41:13 AM »
« Edited: December 24, 2012, 06:04:53 AM by Minion of Midas »

Valadao, Costa and Cardoza are all Azoreans as well. They are White enough for the Anglos and Latin enough for the Mexicans, combined with the community's concentration it's a major electoral advantage.

Though I just surfed the Census website and the area of Azorean settlement seems to largely end at Fresno.
Logged
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 [6] 7  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.261 seconds with 11 queries.