MI PrimR: Public Policy Polling: Santorum leads by four

[RI]

New Poll: Michigan President by Public Policy Polling on 2012-02-19

Summary:

Santorum:	37%
Romney:	33%
Paul:	15%
Gingrich:	10%
Other:	-1%
Undecided:	6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[RI]

I'm fairly certain that Santorum never really led by 15, so this doesn't surprise me. It's pretty consistent with other polls of late.

According to PPP, the shift was mostly caused by Romney's favorables increasingly slightly. Santorum's favorables stayed constant. I think this is just a reversion to the mean Romney support from before Santorum's victories.

[Joe Republic]

-1%?  How does that even work?

[RI]

-1%?  How does that even work?

Rounding.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

This poll shows a much more moderate Republican electorate than the last one.

[Likely Voter]

Well either PPP's last poll was an outlier and Santorum is holding on, or Romney is surging.

I think the former.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Remember that Mitchell had Santorum up by 10 as well. So Santorum by 15 couldn't have been that far off from what it was at the time.

[tmthforu94]

Very glad to see this - I think February 28th has the potential to be Mitt's "resurrection" with 2 big wins.

[ajb]

My hunch is that a week ago Santorum supporters were highly motivated to vote (because they saw their guy had a chance to win), while Romney supporters were less motivated, partly because they're just less passionate about their guy, partly because they were complacent. A certain number of Republican voters may now be more energized to vote Romney to stop Santorum (even as there's another large block doing the opposite).

[Landslide Lyndon]

Evangelicals are now only 41% of the sample. Last time it was 48%, so there is the "secret" of Sanroum's "collapse". Obviously the 15-point margin was an outlier.

Also, the fact that his favorables barely budged shows that Romney's attacks have been ineffective by now.