MA: Suffolk University: Sen. Brown (R) with a 9-point lead
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  MA: Suffolk University: Sen. Brown (R) with a 9-point lead
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Author Topic: MA: Suffolk University: Sen. Brown (R) with a 9-point lead  (Read 3043 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: February 17, 2012, 01:29:21 AM »

New Poll: Massachusetts Senator by Suffolk University on 2012-02-15

Summary: D: 40%, R: 49%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: February 17, 2012, 01:29:48 AM »

The poll also took a look at voters’ perspectives on Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whose favorability was 71 percent in Massachusetts – 17 points higher than President Barack Obama’s 54 percent favorable rating. Clinton had a 19 percent unfavorable rating among likely voters in the general election. Among independents, Clinton had a 66 percent favorable and 20 percent unfavorable rating.

Suffolk University will be releasing the second part of the Massachusetts statewide poll of general election voters, which will include presidential matchups between Barack Obama and each of the remaining four Republican candidates, the Massachusetts Republican primary contest, and issues testing on health care, taxes and SuperPACs.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2 on: February 17, 2012, 01:32:55 AM »

Let's hope they also did a few Obama/Clinton vs. GOP polls so we can see the difference between Obama/Biden vs. GOP ... (not that it matters in MA).
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redcommander
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« Reply #3 on: February 17, 2012, 01:33:58 AM »

Probably an outlier, but good news for Brown anyhow.
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colincb
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« Reply #4 on: February 17, 2012, 02:01:11 AM »

It's the first having Brown ahead since the summer.  Doesn't mean that it's wrong, but the numbers for Romney and the national party bad AND getting worse in numerous polls and this poll has the numbers for Brown better than anywhere else.
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nkpatel1279
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« Reply #5 on: February 17, 2012, 07:40:10 AM »
« Edited: February 17, 2012, 07:47:26 AM by nkpatel1279 »

The advantages Warren-D has is she is a generic Democrat running in a solid Democratic State during Presidential Election Year. The 2012 Democratic Ticket Obama/Biden-D will win MA in the November General Election by at at least a 20 percent margin.  Warren-D will benefit from Obama-D coattails.
The advantage Brown-R has is he is personally like able to Independents and Conservative DEMs(Steve Lynch voters).  
When Brown-R defeated Coakley-D in January 2010-a low turnout Special Election- The Tea Party was at it is peak, it was by a less than 5 percent margin.
If the Brown-R vs Coakley-D took place in November 2012-Presidential Election Year-Democratic GOTV is will be high. The race is likely going to be a statistical tie race.
The 2012 MA US Senate Race will be a statistical tie but Warren-D will end up narrowly winning. Warren-D needs to keep on reminding voters that she is not only a Professor at an elite University but she is a Sunday School Teacher. 
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« Reply #6 on: February 17, 2012, 10:30:47 AM »

The advantages Warren-D has is she is a generic Democrat

no, the opposite is very much the case.
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Ray Goldfield
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« Reply #7 on: February 17, 2012, 10:34:17 AM »

The advantages Warren-D has is she is a generic Democrat

no, the opposite is very much the case.

Exactly. She is an unabashed progressive running against the establishment in a lot of ways, while Brown has doubled down on his reputation as a New England moderate. He won with a lot of support from moderate Dems, and I think we'll see a lot of ticket-splitting in November.

I actually think Warren might have a better chance at beating him with Romney as the nominee, because it's far easier to tie him to someone like Romney than Santorum.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #8 on: February 17, 2012, 10:43:45 AM »

Guaranteed Dem pick up, of course.
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #9 on: February 17, 2012, 10:53:42 AM »

I actually think Warren might have a better chance at beating him with Romney as the nominee, because it's far easier to tie him to someone like Romney than Santorum.

Santorum would provoke a bit of a conundrum with Brown, however - endorse him and he alienates moderates and socially-liberal rich people, don't endorse him and he alienates conservative Catholics.
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nkpatel1279
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« Reply #10 on: February 17, 2012, 11:08:51 AM »

Convential Wisdom is that Warren-D is going to defeat Brown-R due to Obama-D coattails.  If Brown-R were to get re-elected in 2012. He is going to face another tough re-election campaign in 2018 against a predecessor's grandnephew- who is a sitting US House Member.  If Joe Kennedy-D avoids any controversies while serving in the US House-he will be a leading Democratic candidate for the US Senate- whether it is to suceed Kerry- assuming he retires in 2020 or Warren-D assuming she unseats Brown-R in 2012 and retires in 2018/2004 or to defeat Brown-R in 2018. The first 2 scenarios- Joe Kennedy will have an easier chance of getting elected to the US Senate. the last scenario- Brown-R vs Kennedy-D race in 2018 will be interesting to watch.
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morgieb
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« Reply #11 on: February 20, 2012, 07:04:24 AM »

Seems like an outlier.

Still decent news for Scott Brown though.
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Nathan
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« Reply #12 on: February 20, 2012, 08:23:47 AM »
« Edited: February 20, 2012, 08:32:33 AM by Nathan »

I'd want to see crosstabs on this, and Suffolk isn't a particularly great pollster (certainly not Zogby-tier bad either), but it's not patently absurd on its face so put together with all the other polling coming out of this race recently (not that it's exactly been thick on the ground) I think this stands as pretty much a tie at this point. It should be noted that Warren has so far been much better at grassroots stuff than Brown and has proven herself to be an amazing fundraiser, whereas Brown is (and I hate to admit this) culturally a better fit for a lot of the outer Boston suburbs and other such places, which are important to winning statewide elections here even though they pretty much always swing Democratic at the Presidential level. But people don't like the Republicans at this point, even more so than they usually don't like the Republicans, and Brown's cultivation of a moderate reputation is losing some of its sheen, so I'm still inclined to say that this is an outlier. ~3-5 points I could see. Almost double-digits I cannot.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #13 on: February 20, 2012, 09:52:52 AM »

Brown hasn't been out of the 42-43% range since last year, so this is a big deviation from that one. Republicans shouldn't assume this is Safe R, Massachusetts is still a Democratic state and the ads haven't even started yet.
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« Reply #14 on: February 20, 2012, 12:44:13 PM »

This is good news, but it's an outlier. I'm hoping more polls come out like this Smiley
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Vermin Supreme
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« Reply #15 on: February 20, 2012, 01:17:16 PM »

Elizabeth Warren will win this since it's a liberal state and Scott Brown loves Wall Street which will hurt the uneducated white voters that adore him back in 2010. People are sick of corrupt bankers that are killing the common person goal of someday becoming the 1%. Warren is loved by millions of Democratic members and liberal Indies that could turn this election to her. If Rick Santorum becomes the nomination or Newt Gingrich, say goodbye to senator Brown. Romney is hated by millions in the state but can help Brown by being not a right wing extreminist.
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Kevin
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« Reply #16 on: February 20, 2012, 03:26:59 PM »

Still far from safe R and ton's can happen between now and November, but this follows a general trend of the past few weeks of more good news for Brown.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #17 on: February 20, 2012, 03:54:25 PM »

This is a tough race for me personally. I think Scott Brown has done a fine job as Senator, and there's no valid reason to bounce him from office. At the same time, I think Liz Warren would make an even better senator.
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Miles
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« Reply #18 on: February 20, 2012, 04:07:45 PM »

I think I read that Nate Silver said Suffolk was one of the less accurate pollsters in 2010.
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Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers
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« Reply #19 on: February 21, 2012, 12:59:07 PM »
« Edited: February 21, 2012, 01:14:23 PM by OC »

Liz Warren should do fine in he debates and be a fine senator against Brown.
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« Reply #20 on: February 21, 2012, 01:46:26 PM »

This is good news. I was getting concerned about this race.

You should still be concerned about it. Brown still isn't to be favored.
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Vermin Supreme
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« Reply #21 on: February 21, 2012, 06:39:51 PM »

Scott Brown should be target with his anti gay marriage/anti environmental votes to show he's not really maverick at all.
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Vermin Supreme
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« Reply #22 on: February 24, 2012, 02:33:43 PM »

This is good news. I was getting concerned about this race.

You should still be concerned about it. Brown still isn't to be favored.
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