The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread
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Author Topic: The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread  (Read 44469 times)
Tender Branson
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« Reply #300 on: October 15, 2012, 01:28:59 PM »

Our PPP poll will have the most pessimistic Obama numbers of the week. - @markos




Great news!

They are probably setting a low bar for Obama this week, so they can show a big bounce next week ...

When will this poll be released?

They always release their weekly poll on Tuesday.
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Umengus
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« Reply #301 on: October 15, 2012, 01:47:20 PM »

Our PPP poll will have the most pessimistic Obama numbers of the week. - @markos




Great news!

They are probably setting a low bar for Obama this week, so they can show a big bounce next week ...

ppp pollsters are honest people. No ?
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Reds4
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« Reply #302 on: October 15, 2012, 01:51:39 PM »

Yeah you can definitely see this one coming from a mile away.. PPP weekly poll will be very pessimistic for Obama this week, then show a big bounce next week to try to get him momentum.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #303 on: October 15, 2012, 02:04:27 PM »

Yeah you can definitely see this one coming from a mile away.. PPP weekly poll will be very pessimistic for Obama this week, then show a big bounce next week to try to get him momentum.
It really does seem quite likely. There's no reason for numbers coming out right now to be particularly pessimistic for Obama, unless they are polling for some sort of unthought of element or something, so it may well be a builder. I'm not going to say that PPP is purposely skewing their polls (perhaps, but it's unlikely) but maybe they got a poor sample and will over publish it in this case knowing it will revert back.

Of course, maybe it really just is a bunch of bad numbers for Obama/an honestly bad sample. Often around here we forget that the simple, non-conspiracy path is always a possibility.
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Umengus
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« Reply #304 on: October 15, 2012, 02:26:42 PM »

Yeah you can definitely see this one coming from a mile away.. PPP weekly poll will be very pessimistic for Obama this week, then show a big bounce next week to try to get him momentum.
It really does seem quite likely. There's no reason for numbers coming out right now to be particularly pessimistic for Obama, unless they are polling for some sort of unthought of element or something, so it may well be a builder. I'm not going to say that PPP is purposely skewing their polls (perhaps, but it's unlikely) but maybe they got a poor sample and will over publish it in this case knowing it will revert back.

Of course, maybe it really just is a bunch of bad numbers for Obama/an honestly bad sample. Often around here we forget that the simple, non-conspiracy path is always a possibility.

their last poll was bad for Obama (R by 2 I think). Maybe R+3 or +4 now. The thing to see will be the party id of the sample...
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #305 on: October 15, 2012, 02:38:50 PM »

Yeah you can definitely see this one coming from a mile away.. PPP weekly poll will be very pessimistic for Obama this week, then show a big bounce next week to try to get him momentum.
It really does seem quite likely. There's no reason for numbers coming out right now to be particularly pessimistic for Obama, unless they are polling for some sort of unthought of element or something, so it may well be a builder. I'm not going to say that PPP is purposely skewing their polls (perhaps, but it's unlikely) but maybe they got a poor sample and will over publish it in this case knowing it will revert back.

Of course, maybe it really just is a bunch of bad numbers for Obama/an honestly bad sample. Often around here we forget that the simple, non-conspiracy path is always a possibility.

their last poll was bad for Obama (R by 2 I think). Maybe R+3 or +4 now. The thing to see will be the party id of the sample...
I'll just take this moment out of my otherwise busy day to remind all, yet again, that party id is a nearly useless stat, the investigation of which brings forth almost no actual knowledge. Thank you for your time, you may all now return to your regular trollings.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #306 on: October 15, 2012, 03:37:49 PM »

what is with all the conspiracy theories. Maybe just maybe Romney is polling well in the upcoming PPP poll. If PPP was trying to set up a Obama comeback for next week why release a poll showing him up 5 in OH?
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #307 on: October 15, 2012, 05:15:37 PM »

what is with all the conspiracy theories. Maybe just maybe Romney is polling well in the upcoming PPP poll. If PPP was trying to set up a Obama comeback for next week why release a poll showing him up 5 in OH?
People don't know what else to do in a thread. As the election gets close, everyone is getting increasingly nervous, and these things are the natural result. Just gotta "Keep Calm And Post On."
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Vosem
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« Reply #308 on: October 15, 2012, 05:18:07 PM »

PPP does have a small Democratic house effect, but it tends to wear off before the election. (I'm not saying they intentionally skew their numbers, there is zero evidence to that effect). Since, for instance, Nate Silver's model counts house effects, you can be sure a PPP poll showing Romney+3 (or more) would result in Romney gaining even further in the model.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #309 on: October 15, 2012, 05:19:37 PM »

I think it's Romney+1 or 2
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Thomas D
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« Reply #310 on: October 17, 2012, 08:42:37 PM »

PPP keeping things light in the closing weeks:


"About 15% of New Hampshire voters have an opinion on Panetta/Burns, which I made up"
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #311 on: October 17, 2012, 09:07:50 PM »

The more interesting tweet was this....
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No Bounce?
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #312 on: October 17, 2012, 09:11:56 PM »

It took a couple of days for the Romney bounce to filter through... so we won't know until the weekend.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #313 on: October 17, 2012, 09:12:32 PM »

The more interesting tweet was this....
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No Bounce?

I think that will be the key point and also this is important:

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Colorado+Ohio = Election win
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #314 on: October 17, 2012, 09:15:33 PM »

The more interesting tweet was this....
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No Bounce?

Still very early. Remember that coverage of the debate is more important than the debate itself.
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pepper11
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« Reply #315 on: October 17, 2012, 10:32:16 PM »

The more interesting tweet was this....
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No Bounce?

Still very early. Remember that coverage of the debate is more important than the debate itself.

How could either candidate possibly get a bounce from yesterday.  It was the most un-newsworthy debate ever. When Candy Crowley's "fact checking" gets 95% of the coverage, there is not going to be a change in the polls.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #316 on: October 17, 2012, 10:55:27 PM »

The more interesting tweet was this....
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No Bounce?

Still very early. Remember that coverage of the debate is more important than the debate itself.

How could either candidate possibly get a bounce from yesterday.  It was the most un-newsworthy debate ever. When Candy Crowley's "fact checking" gets 95% of the coverage, there is not going to be a change in the polls.

How was anything that happened in the first debate more notable than Romney getting called out on a lie by both the President and the moderator?

Obama looked tired and disinterested in the first debate. That was the only thing that was notable about it. Nothing either of them said was particularly important and it's not like Romney's performance was particularly exceptional.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #317 on: October 18, 2012, 05:40:35 PM »

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So they probably have a Romney lead in the state
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Thomas D
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« Reply #318 on: October 18, 2012, 05:42:05 PM »

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So they probably have a Romney lead in the state

Maybe Obama + 1
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J. J.
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« Reply #319 on: October 18, 2012, 05:45:22 PM »

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So they probably have a Romney lead in the state

I could believe it, the absentee applications are showing much better than 2008 for the R's, and this was after a strong start for the D's.  And they keep on getting better.
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TrapperHawk
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« Reply #320 on: October 18, 2012, 05:54:29 PM »

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So they probably have a Romney lead in the state

Maybe Obama + 1

Probably. Then again, Obama is up 8 points in the NBC/Marist poll. Obama can still be up by 3 and technically Romney is doing a "whole lot better." I'm guessing that PPP will have Iowa tied though.

I like PPP, but I am getting a bit annoyed with their little cryptic hints on Twitter. Maybe I'm just old fashioned, but I think its amateurish. They need to post their results and stop pretending that they're the damned Riddler or something. This is just my annoying, boorish opinion. Probably the only one who thinks this way.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #321 on: October 18, 2012, 05:57:36 PM »

I'd say a tie or a point either way.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #322 on: October 19, 2012, 11:31:09 AM »

Romney up 49-48 in NH, full results out between 1 and 2. Iowa will also be out around that time.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #323 on: October 22, 2012, 12:14:32 PM »

HUGE OBAMA SURGE

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LiberalJunkie
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« Reply #324 on: October 22, 2012, 12:30:04 PM »

HUGE OBAMA SURGE

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Sounds awesome!
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