The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread

[Reds4]

Those who couldn't see this coming from a mile away are obviously blinded.. I said last week that dailykos/PPP were going to have a strong Romney poll backed by a strong Obama poll after the debate to promote momentum. Here it is.

HUGE OBAMA SURGE

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[old timey villain]

Couldn't that mean a big swing to Romney?

[Brittain33]

Couldn't that mean a big swing to Romney?

The last poll they took had Romney up substantially. A whole different ballgame to me implies a change in lead...

[Eraserhead]

I'll guess Obama +3.

[Thomas D]

"Democrats say they would be willing to spend the night in a haunted house, Republicans say they would not"

Sissies.

[philly09]

"On our final polls we're prodding undecideds and not seeing any evidence they lean strongly one way or another- that's good news for Obama"

'There's a school of thought that undecideds will break en masse toward the challenger but we're just not seeing that so far this year'

"Here's where we'll be releasing polls over the next 72 hours: AZ, CO, CT, FL, IA, ME, MA, MI, MN, MO, MT, NV, NH, NC, OH, PA, VA, WA, WI"

"The final round of poll releases will start tonight with states we're mostly polling for the Senate- CT, MA, ME"

"The major Presidential swing states- CO, FL, IA, NV, NH, NC, OH, VA will all be late Sunday/early Monday releases"

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

"On our final polls we're prodding undecideds and not seeing any evidence they lean strongly one way or another- that's good news for Obama"

'There's a school of thought that undecideds will break en masse toward the challenger but we're just not seeing that so far this year'

"Here's where we'll be releasing polls over the next 72 hours: AZ, CO, CT, FL, IA, ME, MA, MI, MN, MO, MT, NV, NH, NC, OH, PA, VA, WA, WI"

"The final round of poll releases will start tonight with states we're mostly polling for the Senate- CT, MA, ME"

"The major Presidential swing states- CO, FL, IA, NV, NH, NC, OH, VA will all be late Sunday/early Monday releases"

It's all over!  CLAP CLAP, CLAP CLAP CLAP!  IT'S ALL OVER!  CLAP CLAP, CLAP CLAP CLAP!

[Eraserhead]

"On our final polls we're prodding undecideds and not seeing any evidence they lean strongly one way or another- that's good news for Obama"

'There's a school of thought that undecideds will break en masse toward the challenger but we're just not seeing that so far this year'

"Here's where we'll be releasing polls over the next 72 hours: AZ, CO, CT, FL, IA, ME, MA, MI, MN, MO, MT, NV, NH, NC, OH, PA, VA, WA, WI"

"The final round of poll releases will start tonight with states we're mostly polling for the Senate- CT, MA, ME"

"The major Presidential swing states- CO, FL, IA, NV, NH, NC, OH, VA will all be late Sunday/early Monday releases"

Glorious!

[J. J.]

"On our final polls we're prodding undecideds and not seeing any evidence they lean strongly one way or another- that's good news for Obama"

'There's a school of thought that undecideds will break en masse toward the challenger but we're just not seeing that so far this year'

"Here's where we'll be releasing polls over the next 72 hours: AZ, CO, CT, FL, IA, ME, MA, MI, MN, MO, MT, NV, NH, NC, OH, PA, VA, WA, WI"

"The final round of poll releases will start tonight with states we're mostly polling for the Senate- CT, MA, ME"

"The major Presidential swing states- CO, FL, IA, NV, NH, NC, OH, VA will all be late Sunday/early Monday releases"

It's all over!  CLAP CLAP, CLAP CLAP CLAP!  IT'S ALL OVER!  CLAP CLAP, CLAP CLAP CLAP!

Ever hear of Mypalfish? 

[Eraserhead]

"On our final polls we're prodding undecideds and not seeing any evidence they lean strongly one way or another- that's good news for Obama"

'There's a school of thought that undecideds will break en masse toward the challenger but we're just not seeing that so far this year'

"Here's where we'll be releasing polls over the next 72 hours: AZ, CO, CT, FL, IA, ME, MA, MI, MN, MO, MT, NV, NH, NC, OH, PA, VA, WA, WI"

"The final round of poll releases will start tonight with states we're mostly polling for the Senate- CT, MA, ME"

"The major Presidential swing states- CO, FL, IA, NV, NH, NC, OH, VA will all be late Sunday/early Monday releases"

It's all over!  CLAP CLAP, CLAP CLAP CLAP!  IT'S ALL OVER!  CLAP CLAP, CLAP CLAP CLAP!

Ever hear of Mypalfish?  

I wouldn't say it's over but are you still predicting a Romney victory (in the EC)?

[J. J.]

Ever hear of Mypalfish?  

I wouldn't say it's over but are you still predicting a Romney victory (in the EC)?
[/quote]

Yes, I think he pulls OH (and IA, though it won't be decisive). 

This is a turnout election.  In a couple of states, WI and OH, R's have something close to Obama's 2008 ground game.  I'm not certain he has his 2008 ground game. 

Part of the 2008 ground game was registration; the Republicans have won that phase already. 

I'll have something on PA by 3:00 PM on election day.

[Franzl]

I'll have something on PA by 3:00 PM on election day.

I can't wait for your crucial report.

[Lief 🗽]

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So you think there will be a massive polling failure on a scale unprecedented in recent United States elections? Cool.

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Right, he has a much better ground game than his 2008 one. Romney's/the RNC's is still noticeably behind, according to essentially every article I've read about ground game, but if you can find something different, please feel free to post it.

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More of a wash, actually. Democrats increased in some states, Republicans closed the gap in others.

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Oh great, more anecdotal evidence that you use to call an entire election. I can't wait!

[J. J.]

I'll have something on PA by 3:00 PM on election day.

I can't wait for your crucial report.

You may wish to. 

[Franzl]

I'll have something on PA by 3:00 PM on election day.

I can't wait for your crucial report.

You may wish to. 

Actually, I don't really care, as I take you and your reports and analysis about as seriously as Dick Morris, but I'm kind of looking forward to listening to your excuses on Tuesday night.

[J. J.]

So you think there will be a massive polling failure on a scale unprecedented in recent United States elections? Cool.

No, I think PPP has a higher house effect that is being admitted to and that Marist is crap.  

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Everything I've head and seen is that Romney is hitting more, especially in the swing states.  

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Ah, no, I just posted the NC figures and I have posted the PA figures previously.  

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BTW, it was right the last time.  

[Lief 🗽]

Well you've dismissed PPP and Marist (despite clinging to Rasmussen, which is much more "crap" than either), but you seem to be ignoring SUSA, CNN, Time, University of Cincinnati, Quinnipiac, Ipsos, Fox, and Purple Strategies. Fact: there is not a single non-partisan public poll showing Mitt Romney winning Ohio. Not one. Even Rasmussen has moved back into a tie.

[J. J.]

I'll have something on PA by 3:00 PM on election day.

I can't wait for your crucial report.

You may wish to. 

Actually, I don't really care, as I take you and your reports and analysis about as seriously as Dick Morris, but I'm kind of looking forward to listening to your excuses on Tuesday night.

My prediction is 205 at 1:30-1:45 PM.  It was 214 in 2008.  I expect this to drop due to registration changes.  It was around 170 in 2004.  If it is below 160, Obama might have a problem.  

I expect Obama to carry PA.  

[J. J.]

Well you've dismissed PPP and Marist (despite clinging to Rasmussen, which is much more "crap" than either), but you seem to be ignoring SUSA, CNN, Time, University of Cincinnati, Quinnipiac, Ipsos, Fox, and Purple Strategies. Fact: there is not a single non-partisan public poll showing Mitt Romney winning Ohio. Not one. Even Rasmussen has moved back into a tie.

Where have I "dismissed" PPP; I've said they house effect, and that can be compensated for.  UC a +4 for "Other," but that is still in MOE. 

[Franzl]

Well you've dismissed PPP and Marist (despite clinging to Rasmussen, which is much more "crap" than either), but you seem to be ignoring SUSA, CNN, Time, University of Cincinnati, Quinnipiac, Ipsos, Fox, and Purple Strategies. Fact: there is not a single non-partisan public poll showing Mitt Romney winning Ohio. Not one. Even Rasmussen has moved back into a tie.

Where have I "dismissed" PPP; I've said they house effect, and that can be compensated for.  UC a +4 for "Other," but that is still in MOE. 

What about all the other polls? You can't just take PPP and subtract a certain amount and declare that the final correct margin.

Well, actually, you probably think that is how it works...

[J. J.]

Well you've dismissed PPP and Marist (despite clinging to Rasmussen, which is much more "crap" than either), but you seem to be ignoring SUSA, CNN, Time, University of Cincinnati, Quinnipiac, Ipsos, Fox, and Purple Strategies. Fact: there is not a single non-partisan public poll showing Mitt Romney winning Ohio. Not one. Even Rasmussen has moved back into a tie.

Where have I "dismissed" PPP; I've said they house effect, and that can be compensated for.  UC a +4 for "Other," but that is still in MOE. 

What about all the other polls? You can't just take PPP and subtract a certain amount and declare that the final correct margin.

Well, actually, you probably think that is how it works...

I do understand that, but I treat is as a rule of thumb.  I am saying that there is this house effect.  We'll see if Obama wins Ohio by 4.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Now kids, comparing Dick Morris to JJ is totally unfair.

Morris is deliriously funny while JJ is just boring and/or annoying.

[Thomas D]

"Barack Obama has expanded his lead in our national tracking poll to 50-47, the first time either candidate has led by more than 2 pts"

[Speed of Sound]

Full numbers from PPP:


http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_TrackingPoll_113.pdf

[Speed of Sound]

"@ppppolls: Barack Obama has led the last 4 individual nights of our national tracking"