The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread

[J. J.]

The Newt surge might hit just in time.

I've been saying that for about 24 hours.

[J. J.]

Virginia's win probably helped ihim in NC. Right now it's irrelevant.

The Virginia win was tainted because neither Gingrich nor Santorum was on the ballot.

A win is a win, but the momentum from Super Tuesday probably gives a Romney a slight boost.

[J. J.]

"Wish we could give you some clarity in Alabama but...Romney 31, Gingrich 30, Santorum 29, Paul 8."


Come on, Rick!

Romney's grits nonsense ought to sink his chances.

Huckabee thought it was a good remark.  MS will be interesting.

[J. J.]

With the delegate allocation rules in the two states we are probably looking at a pretty even 3 way split of the delegates. That is good news and bad news for Mittens. Good news nobody is gaining on him,  bad news it makes it a little tougher to get 50% of the total before the convention.

Remember, there are 29 delegates outside of the South awarded on Tuesday.

[J. J.]

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Hawaii isn't the 'South'?

It's south, but not the South.  Note the capital.

[J. J.]

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Hawaii isn't the 'South'?

It's south, but not the South.  Note the capital.

Honolulu.

That is "capital," not "capitol." 

[J. J.]

Anything from PPP?

[J. J.]

Ben Kenobi, Santorum can't even begin to erode Romney's lead unless he starts winning states that will give him decisive pools of delegates.  Romney racking up the numbers while Santorum boasts about winning Southern contests that award him practically no net delegates simply will not cut it.  If you note things like how Hawaii neutralized Santorum's win in AL and MS and Romney actually won more delegates and expanded his lead on the night of his "big defeat," you'll start to see the magnitude of the task Santorum faces.  If he's to force the brokered convention, he needs to beat Romney in states like IL, states like NJ, states like...hell, even possibly NY.

Santorum's "southern victory day" ended with a net loss of 7 delegates. 

[J. J.]

I see the magnitude, and our maths differ. I have him at 22/23 states which may be enough (without IL) to force a convention outright.

Santorum wins IL - he can likely take the nomination. A romney win here is status quo, reinforcing the deadlock.

Santorum, to be credible, has to start winning delegates.  Romney on a clear path to victory.  In March, Mittens has increased his lead over Santorum by more than 200 delegates.  That is the status quo.

At best, a Santorum win in IL, in terms of delegates, is highly unlikely.

BTW, according to AP, Romney gained two delegates in MS.  Greenpages said just one soft, but they take a while to update.

[J. J.]

No, J.J., Romney did not gain any delegates on Santorum in MS. Mitt won 12 delegates, while Rick won 13. Another 12 were won by Newt Gingrich.

According to AP, Romney now has 14, which I'd guess would be an RNC member.  http://www.google.com/elections/ed/us/results

Greenpages lists it at 13, 12, and 13 for Mitt, with a "soft" delegate.  http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/MS-R

[J. J.]

Santorum - 42%
Romney - 28%
Gingrich - 18%
Paul - 8%
Roemer - 2%

Bam.

Statewide, that translate into 11 Santorum, 9 Romney.  With the CD's assuming Romney comes in third in two (and that really pushing it), Santorum 12, Romney 4, Gingrich 2.  Best case scenario, Rick gains 10 delegates.

[J. J.]

Santorum - 42%
Romney - 28%
Gingrich - 18%
Paul - 8%
Roemer - 2%

Bam.

Statewide, that translate into 11 Santorum, 9 Romney.  With the CD's assuming Romney comes in third in two (and that really pushing it), Santorum 12, Romney 4, Gingrich 2.  Best case scenario, Rick gains 10 delegates.

The delegates by CD are allocated by the caucus process (starting in late April); only 20 At-Large delegates are related to the results of the primary.

That will translate into a 2 delegate lead.

[J. J.]

Santorum - 42%
Romney - 28%
Gingrich - 18%
Paul - 8%
Roemer - 2%

Bam.

Statewide, that translate into 11 Santorum, 9 Romney.  With the CD's assuming Romney comes in third in two (and that really pushing it), Santorum 12, Romney 4, Gingrich 2.  Best case scenario, Rick gains 10 delegates.

Wrong, like usual. It's 12-8 for Rick.

Yes, four delegate lead for Santorum.

[J. J.]

Santorum - 42%
Romney - 28%
Gingrich - 18%
Paul - 8%
Roemer - 2%

Bam.

Statewide, that translate into 11 Santorum, 9 Romney.  With the CD's assuming Romney comes in third in two (and that really pushing it), Santorum 12, Romney 4, Gingrich 2.  Best case scenario, Rick gains 10 delegates.

Wrong, like usual. It's 12-8 for Rick.

Yes, four delegate lead for Santorum.

Ok, J.J., you clearly stated Romney would receive nine delegates. In the correct breakdown, it's 12-8, not 11-9.

Yes, and I corrected that, agreeing with you, 4 delegates, based on those number, a 12-8 split.

[J. J.]

Is PPP going to release some results tonight?

[J. J.]

Is PPP going to release some results tonight?

After 9:30.

Thank you! 

[J. J.]

WI: Romney 43, Santorum 36, Paul 11, Gingrich 8.

Closer, but I'd still expect a win.

[J. J.]

I love that Rick is kicking ass among young voters. Wisconsin is closer than I expected. I like this...

Yeah, it's gone from "race is almost certainly over and Santorum is getting spanked" to just "race is almost certainly over."

Romney could gain in excess of 60 delegates on Tuesday.

[J. J.]

42 Romney, 37 Santorum, 9 Paul, 6 Gingrich

Frankly, I don't believe it at this point.  Outlier?

[J. J.]

When will this be released?

[J. J.]

Um... I assume that's the MT and NV polls

I thought they were releasing OH tonight.

[J. J.]

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So they probably have a Romney lead in the state

I could believe it, the absentee applications are showing much better than 2008 for the R's, and this was after a strong start for the D's.  And they keep on getting better.

[J. J.]

"On our final polls we're prodding undecideds and not seeing any evidence they lean strongly one way or another- that's good news for Obama"

'There's a school of thought that undecideds will break en masse toward the challenger but we're just not seeing that so far this year'

"Here's where we'll be releasing polls over the next 72 hours: AZ, CO, CT, FL, IA, ME, MA, MI, MN, MO, MT, NV, NH, NC, OH, PA, VA, WA, WI"

"The final round of poll releases will start tonight with states we're mostly polling for the Senate- CT, MA, ME"

"The major Presidential swing states- CO, FL, IA, NV, NH, NC, OH, VA will all be late Sunday/early Monday releases"

It's all over!  CLAP CLAP, CLAP CLAP CLAP!  IT'S ALL OVER!  CLAP CLAP, CLAP CLAP CLAP!

Ever hear of Mypalfish? 

[J. J.]

Ever hear of Mypalfish?  

I wouldn't say it's over but are you still predicting a Romney victory (in the EC)?
[/quote]

Yes, I think he pulls OH (and IA, though it won't be decisive). 

This is a turnout election.  In a couple of states, WI and OH, R's have something close to Obama's 2008 ground game.  I'm not certain he has his 2008 ground game. 

Part of the 2008 ground game was registration; the Republicans have won that phase already. 

I'll have something on PA by 3:00 PM on election day.

[J. J.]

I'll have something on PA by 3:00 PM on election day.

I can't wait for your crucial report.

You may wish to.