The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread

[Whacker77]

The Obama campaign can begin plans for its second inaugural because it appears Willard is now moving ahead in Ohio.  At least, that's what PPP tweeted today.  A Romney win in Ohio ends any hopes of a convention fight or a new candidate.  That means Republicans are stuck with our own version of John Kerry.

Maybe I'm totally misreading the situation, but I see no way Romney can win a general election.  He's shown no ability to mobilize the base and he lacks authenticity.  I've followed this race as closely as anyone and I have no idea what Romney really believes.  In the end, the conservative base will show up for Romney, but will Independents?

Many people, trying to convince themselves all is not lost, note Reagan trailed Carter badly in 1980 and went on to sweep to victory.  That is true, but Reagan was the conservative choice and had the passions of the grass roots.  More importantly though, the political make up of the parties is far different today than they were then.

In 1980, the makeup of the parties was far different.  Both parties had strong liberal and conservative wings.  Today though, the parties are essentially ideologically pure.  There are no conservatives left in the Democrat party just as there are no liberal left in the Republican party.  The hyperpartisan nature of today would probably not have allowed for the Reagan blowouts in 1980 and 1984.

I'm sure there will be moments in the campaign when Romney puts Obama on his heels, but I just don't see Romney ever really challenging Obama.

[Whacker77]

The election will largely be a referendum on Obama. Mittens just needs to convince folks that he is not a risky scheme, just like Reagan did, and we have a real horse race. That should not be too hard. Mittens may be cold, un-empathetic, somewhat socially awkward, somewhat introverted actually, and a trimmer sometimes, but risky? I think not. And for all of the bills of particulars listed by folks against Mittens, he is running tight with Obama in the polls even before he is nominated.

The part I bolded and underlined is the problem I have.  Given the economy continues to lag, unemployment has been over 8.5% since early 2009, and gas prices are very high, Romney ought to have a 10 point lead over Obama.  The fact he trails, albeit relatively closely, is a major warning sign to me he can't defeat Obama at all.  I think the national polls tell perfectly how weak he is.

[Whacker77]

The election will largely be a referendum on Obama. Mittens just needs to convince folks that he is not a risky scheme, just like Reagan did, and we have a real horse race. That should not be too hard. Mittens may be cold, un-empathetic, somewhat socially awkward, somewhat introverted actually, and a trimmer sometimes, but risky? I think not. And for all of the bills of particulars listed by folks against Mittens, he is running tight with Obama in the polls even before he is nominated.

The part I bolded and underlined is the problem I have.  Given the economy continues to lag, unemployment has been over 8.5% since early 2009, and gas prices are very high, Romney ought to have a 10 point lead over Obama.  The fact he trails, albeit relatively closely, is a major warning sign to me he can't defeat Obama at all.  I think the national polls tell perfectly how weak he is.

[Whacker77]

Romney is not Reagan.  I know Politico is a huge Romney supporter, but the blinkers are hurting his view of things.  I'm not sure McCain, as bad a candidate as he was, was ever this compromised.  He just ran in a lousy year for Republicans.  Romney is just a lousy candidate.

As for the Newt surge, it just shows conservatives are a stupid voting block.  At the very time they should be using Santorum as a vessel to block Romney, they're shifting slightly back to Newt and thus spliting their influence.