The "PPP leaks stuff about their polls" thread

[Politico]

Both sides have 40% no matter what. Romney has no skeletons in the closet, and can win a plurality of the 20% in the middle by appearing safe and competent. Except when you have a Goldwater-like challenger, campaigns involving an incumbent are essentially referendums on the incumbent. $4-5/gallon and underemployment in the 15-20% range with official unemployment over 8% is a losing referendum for the incumbent if his challenger is not perceived as risky. If Obama descends into scorch-and-burn tactics like Bush did in 2004, that is still a battle Romney can win by being negative about the state of things and tying Obama into them (which is something the electorate is already doing without this narrative). Stuff like this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K34sHH3xZAY

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OoQ1gged_KI

Outside of that stuff in response to Obama's negative onslaught, Romney can just run positive stuff like this and he'll have little problem seeing Obama lose his referendum:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fg3EAdGLDhU

I'll add this: Romney is not a natural politician, and obviously he's not everyman America. However, he does have a passion for driving. It was ingrained in him as a child by virtue of his dad being the head of an automotive company in Detroit. Mitt's love of driving is authentic. And who doesn't like driving in America? The Mitt on the Road ads are going to help with his perceived "authenticity" problem.

[Politico]

The election will largely be a referendum on Obama. Mittens just needs to convince folks that he is not a risky scheme, just like Reagan did, and we have a real horse race.

No, the election will be about choice.

Romney has to actually convince people that he is a legit alternative to Obama, simply not being Obama isn't good enough.

You overestimate how much the 20% in the middle care about "issues." If most of them perceive Romney as NOT risky, that's good enough to bury Obama.

[Politico]

[...] Mittens may be cold, un-empathetic, somewhat socially awkward, somewhat introverted actually, and a trimmer sometimes, but risky? I think not. [...]

Some people would say that having a President who changes his positions every 15 minutes is risky.

The 20% in the middle do not care about the fact Romney changed his position on Roe V. Wade. Romney has never flip-flopped on matters of war and peace. John Kerry's "I actually voted for the war before I voted against it" (I know that's not the direct quote) during the middle of a war we were appearing to lose was part of what BARELY did him in.

Good luck creating the narrative of the Mr. Bland of American Politics as a risky scheme. The Obama Team is good, but not THAT good, especially up against Karl Rove and Co.

[Politico]

The election will largely be a referendum on Obama. Mittens just needs to convince folks that he is not a risky scheme, just like Reagan did, and we have a real horse race. That should not be too hard. Mittens may be cold, un-empathetic, somewhat socially awkward, somewhat introverted actually, and a trimmer sometimes, but risky? I think not. And for all of the bills of particulars listed by folks against Mittens, he is running tight with Obama in the polls even before he is nominated.

The part I bolded and underlined is the problem I have.  Given the economy continues to lag, unemployment has been over 8.5% since early 2009, and gas prices are very high, Romney ought to have a 10 point lead over Obama.  The fact he trails, albeit relatively closely, is a major warning sign to me he can't defeat Obama at all.  I think the national polls tell perfectly how weak he is.

Ronald Reagan was tied with Jimmy Carter a week before Election Day. Need I say more?

The polling will probably be tight until the last few days of the campaign. Then it will break heavily to Romney, just like it did for Reagan, once everybody is convinced that Romney is not a risky scheme and things are just too bad to reward Obama with re-election. Romney will probably win around 51-47, simply because Obama's team is so good at organizing, but with the potential of something like 54-44 if it breaks 1980-hard his way.