The election will largely be a referendum on Obama. Mittens just needs to convince folks that he is not a risky scheme, just like Reagan did, and we have a real horse race. That should not be too hard. Mittens may be cold, un-empathetic, somewhat socially awkward, somewhat introverted actually, and a trimmer sometimes, but risky? I think not. And for all of the bills of particulars listed by folks against Mittens, he is running tight with Obama in the polls even before he is nominated.
No, he is not. In some polls he is down by 10 points. That is not close at all. He is losing in Virginia and Ohio, two states he need to win to become president. And Obama still has to start campaigning for real.