Romney's lose-lose situation.

[retromike22]

First, this is how I see the two scenarios after Michigan:

Scenario 1: Romney loses Michigan to Santorum, and then Santorum consolidates the anti-Romney vote.

On Super Tuesday:
Romney wins Idaho, Massachusetts, Vermont and Virginia
Gingrich wins Georgia
Santorum wins: Alaska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee.

Gingrich does not win any future states.

Scenario 2: Romney wins Michigan, and Santorum's support collapses. The anti-Romney vote goes back to... (their only hope)... Gingrich.

On Super Tuesday:
Romney wins Idaho, Massachusetts, Vermont and Virginia
Gingrich wins Georgia, Oklahoma, Tennessee,
Santorum wins: Alaska, North Dakota, Ohio

Santorum wins only a few additional states, Gingrich surges.

I can't see a situation where Romney wins any states on super Tuesday other than Idaho, Massachusetts, Vermont, and Virginia. This is because outside of the northeast, Florida, and the Mormon states, Romney needs Gingrich and Santorum to split the conservative, anti-romney vote. Yes I know that's obvious, but I've noticed something during the primaries and caucuses so far:

The conservative vote doesn't always split, and when it does, it has not split anywhere close to evenly. Let's start in South Carolina, where the current race of Romney, Gingrich, and Santorum began. I'm going to exclude Paul because he is in a category of his own, and does not gain much from the waxes and wanes of Gingrich or Santorum. I won't include Missouri because Gingrich was not on the ballot, and we have seen what happens when there is only one conservative anti-Romney candidate vs. Romney.

This are the numbers of Romney, Gingrich, and Santorum in the primaries and caucuses starting with SC. These are each followed by the (Gingrich-Santorum difference in percent points)

South Carolina: Gingrich 40, Romney 28, Santorum 17 (23)
Florida: Romney 46, Gingrich 32, Santorum 13 (19)
Nevada: Romney 50, Gingrich 21, Santorum 10 (11)
Minnesota: Santorum 45, Romney 17, Gingrich 11 (34)
Colorado: Santorum 40, Romney 35, Gingrich 13 (27)
Maine: Romney 39, Santorum 18, Gingrich 6 (12)

In none of these cases was the difference between Gingrich and Santorum smaller than 11 points.  Ranking them by their difference, we see this:

Nevada: Romney 50, Gingrich 21, Santorum 10 (11)
Maine: Romney 39, Santorum 18, Gingrich 6 (12)
Florida: Romney 46, Gingrich 32, Santorum 13 (19)
South Carolina: Gingrich 40, Romney 28, Santorum 17 (23)
Colorado: Santorum 40, Romney 35, Gingrich 13 (27)
Minnesota: Santorum 45, Romney 17, Gingrich 11 (34)

So far, in every state where the difference between Santorum and Gingrich was below 20 points, Romney has won. In states where the difference was above 20 points, Romney did not win.

I'm curious to see if this will continue.

I call this Romney's lose-lose situation, because he will either lose the nomination to Santorum or to Gingrich, simply because Santorum and Gingrich's support is not equal enough, in enough states so that Romney can win.

[homelycooking]

If Santorum's support collapses in scenario 2, how does he still win Ohio?

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

If Santorum's support collapses in scenario 2, how does he still win Ohio?

I agree, I think Romney would pick up Ohio in that scenario.

[tmthforu94]

I don't think it's a lose-lose if Romney sweeps on Tuesday. Santorum's support will fall, but I don't think Gingrich will have another rise. A Gingrich rise would have required a strong debate performance the other night, and while it was good, it wasn't good enough. With a Michigan victory, you'll see Romney keep all of the supporters he has and pick up some more; Santorum will go down a bit and Gingrich will go up a bit. It's still a split.

Now, if Santorum won, it'd help him, and even more would be leaving Gingrich's camp for Santorum. I definitely think there's a "win" situation for Romney, though.

[ajb]

I'd go as far as to say that I think OH is almost a "must-win" for Romney at this point. It'll be interesting to see post-Michigan polls in Ohio...

[TomC]

Option 1- Santorum wins Michigan and the perception is that no one will get a majority of delegates until the convention

Option 2- Romney wins Michigan and the perception will be he will get enough delegates before Tampa.

Georgia is not enough to give Gingrich a bounce nationally- he'd need TN and OK too- but to get those away from Santorum, he'd need a bounce before Super Tuesday.

[Politico]

I don't think it's a lose-lose if Romney sweeps on Tuesday. Santorum's support will fall, but I don't think Gingrich will have another rise. A Gingrich rise would have required a strong debate performance the other night, and while it was good, it wasn't good enough. With a Michigan victory, you'll see Romney keep all of the supporters he has and pick up some more; Santorum will go down a bit and Gingrich will go up a bit. It's still a split.

Now, if Santorum won, it'd help him, and even more would be leaving Gingrich's camp for Santorum. I definitely think there's a "win" situation for Romney, though.

I agree with this assessment. While I think Gingrich prevented himself from becoming flavor of the month again with his doubling-down on the Moon Base stuff, he should still win Georgia. However, who knows which way Tennessee and Oklahoma will go. It's possible Santorum could take a hit after losing Michigan (not guaranteed - Democrats may push Santorum over-the-top in Michigan), but still manage to win those two states on Super Tuesday.

In all likelihood, the race is going to continue beyond Super Tuesday.