Will Rick get another national surge if he wins Michigan?

[So rightwing that I broke the Political Compass!]

Mitt has garnered a slight edge nationally(1% above Rick in a recent poll), and their aren't any more debates, so this is probably Rick's last chance to get a surge before Super Tuesday(unless Romney makes a crippling gaffe).

So would winning Michigan give him the surge he needs? I reckon it would convince some Gingrich voters who hate Mittens sufficiently to abandon Newt for Santorum... and maybe some of those going with Mittens for electability reasons as well.

[Cory]

Yes I think so. If Rick wins Michigan tonight I think the call will grow louder for Gingrich to finally drop out. I guess you could call Michigan "Santorum's Florida", meaning that it's the critical firewall for Romney like Florida was for Newt and if Rick breaches it then the floodgates could well swing open.

[ajb]

Except that I doubt Gingrich will get out before Super Tuesday, given how well he's doing in GA. I think if Santorum indeed wins MI tonight, or even keeps it close (and that, at least, seems guaranteed now), then Mitt will have to go all in in OH. It's the only Super Tuesday state that's both big enough to matter, and where a win by Romney would be seen as significant. After Super Tuesday, there are a lot of contests that look really ugly for Romney before Illinois, his first chance of winning something significant again, on March 24.
If Romney loses OH, he's pretty likely to keep losing through March and early April, given the states that are up, and at the same time there aren't enough states in that period for a decisive knockout blow by Santorum (or Gingrich?). I'm pretty sure we'd see a Santorum surge then. If Romney somehow pulls off Ohio (especially if he also narrowly wins Michigan tonight), then he's in slightly better shape, but the next six weeks of contests still look bad for him, so we might see a Santorum surge then anyway.

[Vote UKIP!]

Yes I think so. If Rick wins Michigan tonight I think the call will grow louder for Gingrich to finally drop out. I guess you could call Michigan "Santorum's Florida", meaning that it's the critical firewall for Romney like Florida was for Newt and if Rick breaches it then the floodgates could well swing open.

What he said....

[Cobbler]

Yeah, I think so. He'll be seen as the clear Anti-Romney, one that can compete in states that Romney calls home. And Mitten's inevitability argument is damaged even further than it already is.