MI PrimR: Public Policy Polling: Virtual tie in Michigan

[RI]

New Poll: Michigan President by Public Policy Polling on 2012-02-26

Summary:

Romney:	39%
Santorum:	37%
Paul:	13%
Gingrich:	9%
Other:	0%
Undecided:	2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[RI]

High margins of error, but huge divide here:

Already voted:
Romney 62%
Santorum 29%
Gingrich 9%
Paul 0%

Yet to vote:
Santorum 39%
Romney 34%
Paul 16%
Gingrich 9%

[tmthforu94]

I'd say there is a 80% chance of Romney winning here.

Paul at 0% on already voted? Wow...

[MaxQue]

I'd say there is a 80% chance of Romney winning here.

Paul at 0% on already voted? Wow...

Usually, people who vote early are retirees. Paul isn't popular with them.

[tmthforu94]

I'd say there is a 80% chance of Romney winning here.

Paul at 0% on already voted? Wow...

Usually, people who vote early are retirees. Paul isn't popular with them.

You'd think he'd at least get a percentage of them, though...


I knew this would happen, though expected Mittens to be leading Santorum more by now. Governor Romney was destined to win in 2012, and although it was questioned at times, I'm confident Team Mitt will prevail with a sweep on Tuesday and a huge Super Tuesday in 10 days.

[Torie]

Vis a vis the prior poll from this outfit about a 5 days ago, Mittens moved from down 3 points to up 2 points.

Here is the thing though. Mittens is doing a full court press on MI, and while he may win, the opposition is proving hard to crack. It is sobering to me that something close to, but not quite there yet, majority of my party has such fundamentally different world view than I do on a host of issues, and are delusional in my opinion as to what makes for a winning candidate for POTUS, and what does not, beyond the policy divide. Yes, I know, Mittens and Rick in some ways sound more and more alike recently, although hardly in tone and emphasis, but you can just feel Mittens' pain in having to engage in this unpleasant task.

[Sbane]

I think if Mittens was more charismatic, and just didn't come off as an aloof 1%er, he wouldn't be in such bad shape. Mccain was able to get through just fine, wasn't he? And he was distrusted by the base as well. I think recently (or was it today?) Mitt visited Daytona for the NASCAR race and he said this when asked if he follow NASCAR......."Not as closely as some of the most ardent fans," he said. "But I have some friends who are NASCAR team owners."

He just can't help it, it seems. He's just completely out of touch. But seemingly Romney will win AZ pretty easily, meaning he should do just fine in California and he will definitely do well in the northeast. That may be enough to win....

[RI]

If you had told me a month ago that Santorum would be this close in Michigan, I would have considered it a massive win. But now, it seems a bit disappointing. Santorum generally overperfoms his polling, so I'm holding out hope, but still...this could easily be another so close moment.

[Eraserhead]

The internal stuff is not promising at all for Santorum.

[Alcon]

This poll has a lot more indicators of a Romney overperformance tomorrow than it does a Santorum overperformance.

We Ask America has Romney +4 too.  At least the polling is close (Arizona is a rout at Romney +16)

[Sam Spade]

I think if Mittens was more charismatic, and just didn't come off as an aloof 1%er, he wouldn't be in such bad shape.

That is part of it, but not really it.  After all, Republicans who are Republicans because of economic factors certainly do not constitute a majority of the party, as Huckabee found out.  Charisma is also overrated, though Mitt would certainly lose if any of the others had even an ounce of it.

The reason why Mitt has struggled is not because of his views but because a majority of Republicans do not believe that his views are, well, his real views.  And that is why this process is going to last into, at earliest, late April.  This all was quite clear after South Carolina, though yours truly noted it much earlier, and told Torie about it on many occasions, and was naturally ignored.

[Torie]

Sam, what would really be disturbing, is if Mittens actually believed some of the stuff he has been saying lately ... his 20% across the board tax cut for example. Running as a Pub is hell these days, apparently.

[J. J.]

Vis a vis the prior poll from this outfit about a 5 days ago, Mittens moved from down 3 points to up 2 points.

Coupled with the other polls.  Mittens, if not surging, is strengthening. 

I think the real questions will be:

1.  Does Mittens win big enough on Super Tuesday to become inevitable?

2.  If not, who become ABR?  Santorum will have to win 2-4 states to become that candidate.

[big bad fab]

On Super Tuesday, Mitt will be the winner, even though by default again, because Newt won't have (re-)surged enough and Rick will have decreased enough...
for example to make a Romney win in Ohio entirely possible and to blur the situation in Tennessee, at least between Rick and Newt.

And, what is more, BOTH Newt and Rick will have reasons to keep on fighting after Super Tuesday, which is the best thing for Mitt

[Alcon]

PPP:

"Started today's Michigan calls at 4 and so far seeing encouraging things for Santorum.  Tomorrow may be a long night.  Pretty sure Santorum will win election day voters tomorrow in MI, just a question of whether he can make up Romney's absentee lead.  Our final Michigan numbers should be out between 10 and 11 tonight."

[Landslide Lyndon]

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Ack. Do I switch my prediction?

[CLARENCE 2015!]

The spin matters more then the vote... if he closes the gap that is a win