MI PrimR: Public Policy Polling: Santorum leads by 1 in combined sample, 5 today

[greenforest32]

I look forward to Michigan's results tomorrow.

Arizona has already sold out

[Landslide Lyndon]

Don't forget that Santorum has consistently overperformed his poll numbers.

[Eraserhead]

What could be behind this rebound?

It has to be the stadium thing. He got hammered for that.

Anyway, tomorrow night looks like it's going to be absolutely epic. I'm pleased.

[ZuWo]

With the momentum apparently going in Santorum's way, could Arizona be in play again? Or is that Santorum surge a Michigan thing based on Romney's recent gaffes in Michigan?

[Sbane]

With the momentum apparently going in Santorum's way, could Arizona be in play again? Or is that Santorum surge a Michigan thing based on Romney's recent gaffes in Michigan?

About half of the voters in AZ have already voted due to absentee voting. So I wouldn't expect the final result to change a whole lot even if there is a swing amongst today's voters. It's not as if there has been a huge swing in MI either, but maybe just enough to put Santorum over the top.

[Volrath50]

What could be behind this rebound?

I imagine part of it is simply Romney's post-debate mini-surge fading.

[krazen1211]

PP has egg on their face.

[Sam Spade]

PP has egg on their face.

The polls severely underestimated Romney in 2008 as well, which was why my prediction in the other thread was as such. 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/mi/michigan_republican_primary-237.html

[Lief 🗽]

PP has egg on their face.

The polls severely underestimated Romney in 2008 as well, which was why my prediction in the other thread was as such. 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/mi/michigan_republican_primary-237.html

Home-state effect? I don't know why polls wouldn't pick up on that though.

[Tender Branson]

PP has egg on their face.

Not really.

Their combined poll for Sunday/Monday was Santorum+1, Romney wins by 3.

First of all, this is within the MoE.

Second, the CNN Exit Poll says that about 10% of voters decided on who to vote for just on Tuesday and these voters went strongly for Romney. So, PPP couldn't pick up these election day voters. And the Exit Poll also said that "in the days before Tuesday", voters who decided in these days picked Santorum - that's exactly when PPP was in the field.

Third, their AZ poll was pretty good.