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  GA: Survey USA: Republicans only barely ahead of Obama
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Author Topic: GA: Survey USA: Republicans only barely ahead of Obama  (Read 1198 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: February 27, 2012, 11:59:44 pm »

New Poll: Georgia President by Survey USA on 2012-02-26

Summary: D: 42%, R: 49%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: February 28, 2012, 12:04:15 am »

49-42 Romney/Obama
46-43 Paul/Obama
47-43 Santorum/Obama
48-44 Gingrich/Obama

Favorables:

Obama: 41% favorable, 48% unfavorable, 9% neutral
Romney: 24% favorable, 39% unfavorable, 30% neutral
Paul: 18% favorable, 37% unfavorable, 32% neutral
Santorum: 25% favorable, 31% unfavorable, 32% neutral
Gingrich: 32% favorable, 37% unfavorable, 22% neutral
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2 on: February 28, 2012, 12:07:52 am »

Not too bad.

I think Obama should push hard for Georgia, he's at 27/28% with Whites there and has only slightly more than 80% of Blacks.

It's certainly good if the Republicans have to invest a ton of money here that they could spend elsewhere.
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old timey villain
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« Reply #3 on: February 28, 2012, 12:12:36 am »

This seems more in line with what I think Georgia looks like right now. I remember an older poll that said he was at about 20% with whites. 27% is much better, and with a really strong minority turnout, that number might be enough to flip the state, although I'm still not holding my breath for that just yet.

Another interesting point is that you can really start to see the divide between metro Atlanta and the rest of the state. Obama beats all of them in the Atlanta region pretty decisively, while the Repubs beat him in the other regions.

Oh, and LOL @ Gingrich losing to Obama by 10 points in Metro Atlanta, part of it being an area he represented in Congress in 20 years. Atlanta has certainly changed.
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old timey villain
cope1989
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« Reply #4 on: February 28, 2012, 12:19:56 am »

One problem though, In the survey, 67% of people they polled were white. If I remember correctly, the proportion of white voters in the electorate in 2008 was well under that, somewhere in the low 60's. Georgia's minority population has continued to grow in the last 4 years as well.

Maybe I'm a novice at polls, but is 67% the percentage of the electorate they expect to be white here in November? Because if so, I have a few more points to make.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5 on: February 28, 2012, 12:30:00 am »

One problem though, In the survey, 67% of people they polled were white. If I remember correctly, the proportion of white voters in the electorate in 2008 was well under that, somewhere in the low 60's. Georgia's minority population has continued to grow in the last 4 years as well.

Maybe I'm a novice at polls, but is 67% the percentage of the electorate they expect to be white here in November? Because if so, I have a few more points to make.

I think these numbers are OK.

In 2008, the Exit Poll showed 65% White, 30% Black, 3% Latino, 1% Asian, 1% Others

Obama lost Whites by 23-76 and won Blacks by 98-2.

But because Blacks/Others are slightly less likely this year to turn out, the SUSA numbers are probably right.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #6 on: February 28, 2012, 02:54:04 am »

Looks like 2008.
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old timey villain
cope1989
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« Reply #7 on: February 28, 2012, 11:48:06 am »

One problem though, In the survey, 67% of people they polled were white. If I remember correctly, the proportion of white voters in the electorate in 2008 was well under that, somewhere in the low 60's. Georgia's minority population has continued to grow in the last 4 years as well.

Maybe I'm a novice at polls, but is 67% the percentage of the electorate they expect to be white here in November? Because if so, I have a few more points to make.

I think these numbers are OK.

In 2008, the Exit Poll showed 65% White, 30% Black, 3% Latino, 1% Asian, 1% Others

Obama lost Whites by 23-76 and won Blacks by 98-2.

But because Blacks/Others are slightly less likely this year to turn out, the SUSA numbers are probably right.

I don't think you can assume that minority turnout will be higher or lower than in 2008- it's too early to make a prediction like that.

And Georgia is undergoing an intense demographic change. Georgia went from being 65% white in census 2000 to 59% white in 2010, not including Hispanics in those numbers. As of now, the non hispanic white population in Georgia is at a little less than 56% percent. The Georgia voter rolls show that whites now are around 60-61% of the registered voters here in Georgia, while blacks, hispanics and asians continue to increase. This will affect the results in 2012.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #8 on: February 28, 2012, 12:27:07 pm »


But because Blacks/Others are slightly less likely this year to turn out, the SUSA numbers are probably right.

Actually PPP has found that blacks are the most enthusiastic pro-Democrat voting group.
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old timey villain
cope1989
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« Reply #9 on: February 28, 2012, 02:49:37 pm »
« Edited: February 28, 2012, 02:53:22 pm by cope1989 »

If anyone is interested, here's the latest breakdown of Georgia voters by race.

http://sos.georgia.gov/elections/voter_registration/vrgraphs.htm

White Voters still make up a clear majority of the electorate, but it's only about 60-61% if my math is correct. Black voters almost break 30%. Hispanic voters are still a miniscule voting block, but I know the Democratic Party of Georgia is about to undergo a pretty significant voter registration drive with Hispanic citizens, who are pretty upset about last year's immigration bill and the more recent passage of HB 59, which bans Illegal immigrants from attending any public college in the state.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #10 on: February 28, 2012, 10:46:11 pm »

Georgia also has a large military presence. Young soldiers (most are young enlisted people) probably vote as they would in the communities whence they come, except that they might be more deferential to candidates who are military veterans. Black and Hispanic soldiers probably vote much like young blacks and Hispanics on the whole -- but white soldiers tend to be drawn from more conservative parts of the public.  Young white enlisted people are likely to be more politically conservative than white people of similar age, and that alone would be enough to give the Republicans an unusual edge in Georgia.

Young white voters in 2008 were less likely to vote Republican in 2008 than white people of any age -- except in Georgia.  Remember of course that the Republican nominee for President was a war hero in 2008; such will not be so in 2012. For young soldiers, military and diplomatic policies can be the difference between peace and the worst-possible scenario (a bungled war).

Barack Obama so far is not running away from his military and diplomatic policies. Against someone who has question marks the President could do better this time than in 2008 among military voters.  That could be enough to flip Georgia to the President.  The President so far has no vulnerability on military or diplomatic policy. That said, if one is an incumbent one usually either runs on ones record of achievements and wins or from one's record of failures and loses.

The President does not need Georgia. The state is probably the difference between about 385 and 400 electoral votes.
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old timey villain
cope1989
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« Reply #11 on: February 28, 2012, 11:17:09 pm »

You always bring up the military argument, Pbrower, and while it's true that Georgia has a large military presence, it doesn't affect our politics as much as you'd think. Conservative voters in Georgia are very pro military, as they are pretty much everywhere else, but- living in Georgia- I can tell you that the Military/War hero heuristic doesn't carry any more weight than it does anywhere else, outside of the military towns, which tend to be conservative anyway.

Anyone who has spent time in Georgia understands that the biggest issue is race here. If Obama's election somehow created a "post-racial" America, you certainly couldn't see that the day after here in Georgia. I was in college in Athens at the time, but my friends back home told me stories of white hot tension back at my old high school between black students and white. The black students openly taunted the white students about Obama's victory, while the white students openly showed their deep fear of an Obama presidency based on his race and heritage.

And it's continued today. Many white Georgians put their absolute faith in the Republican party based on fear. They're incredibly scared of a fast growing minority presence and an influx of liberal white voters who don't seem to share in their fear. That's the reason for the harsh immigration laws that have been passed as well as the dog whistle racism constantly fed to the voters by the Republican politicians here. Of course, even in Georgia, you can't openly claim your fear of minority power, but anyone with half a brain understands where the fear is coming from.

The Georgia Republican party is sitting pretty, but they know their position of dominance becomes more precarious by the day. Maybe this is hackish of me, but Georgia is a few years behind North Carolina, heading towards the tipping point. A growing minority population of blacks, hispanics and asians who are becoming politically active, combined with even a slight uptick in democratic votes from whites, will make Georgia a swing state. In my opinion, it's not a matter of if, it's a matter of when.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #12 on: February 29, 2012, 12:29:14 pm »

And it's continued today. Many white Georgians put their absolute faith in the Republican party based on fear. They're incredibly scared of a fast growing minority presence and an influx of liberal white voters who don't seem to share in their fear.

That is something I always wondered about. There are a bunch of Southern states (Georgia, North Carolina, Texas and Virginia) that are seeing a large wave of predominately Northern liberal whites moving into their states. I know a recent poll was done in Virginia asking people there if they considered themselves to be Southern. The results were fascinating as it showed that opinions were on pace to become 50-50 within the decade. What are the opinions native whites on these white Northern transplants that don't see race as an issue and tend to vote for Democrats?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #13 on: February 29, 2012, 07:02:38 pm »

You always bring up the military argument, Pbrower, and while it's true that Georgia has a large military presence, it doesn't affect our politics as much as you'd think. Conservative voters in Georgia are very pro military, as they are pretty much everywhere else, but- living in Georgia- I can tell you that the Military/War hero heuristic doesn't carry any more weight than it does anywhere else, outside of the military towns, which tend to be conservative anyway.

Maybe. In a close statewide election (which can include not only Gubernatorial and Senatorial elections, but also the Presidential race in that state) some voting blocs can be the difference between a win and a loss. In a state like Indiana in 2008 the LGBT vote or the Jewish vote could be the difference  in a state in which those blocs are usually insignificant.

If President Obama is capable of presenting himself as having the steady hand on foreign and military policy and the Republican nominee can't, then President Obama will do very well with the military vote in Georgia which includes the only significant young conservative vote.  For these voters 'race' is not so relevant. Republicans had the advantage of that vote in 2000 and 2004 nationwide and in Georgia in 2008.     

Quote
Anyone who has spent time in Georgia understands that the biggest issue is race here. If Obama's election somehow created a "post-racial" America, you certainly couldn't see that the day after here in Georgia. I was in college in Athens at the time, but my friends back home told me stories of white hot tension back at my old high school between black students and white. The black students openly taunted the white students about Obama's victory, while the white students openly showed their deep fear of an Obama presidency based on his race and heritage.

I will take your word for it as the norm in Georgia. Except for Mayor of Atlanta, Georgians had little experience with black leadership of any kind.  Now they can't avoid it unless they emigrate. Except for Atlanta and perhaps Athens -- and military towns -- Georgia is not "post-racial".  Of course President Obama has done little to scare white people since his inauguration.

Virginia is far different. Long a safe haven for the GOP in contrast to most Southern states (the only Southern state to not vote for Carter in 1976), it actually elected a black man as Governor.   Douglas Wilder proved himself a moderate... and Virginia will never be the same politically. 

Quote
And it's continued today. Many white Georgians put their absolute faith in the Republican party based on fear. They're incredibly scared of a fast growing minority presence and an influx of liberal white voters who don't seem to share in their fear. That's the reason for the harsh immigration laws that have been passed as well as the dog whistle racism constantly fed to the voters by the Republican politicians here. Of course, even in Georgia, you can't openly claim your fear of minority power, but anyone with half a brain understands where the fear is coming from.

Undeniable. But if any people are "post-racial" it is members of the Armed Services. They have no alternative in view of the unique features of military life.  Note well, of course -- Georgia voters are getting accustomed to someone who looks very much unlike any prior President.

Quote
The Georgia Republican party is sitting pretty, but they know their position of dominance becomes more precarious by the day. Maybe this is hackish of me, but Georgia is a few years behind North Carolina, heading towards the tipping point. A growing minority population of blacks, hispanics and asians who are becoming politically active, combined with even a slight uptick in democratic votes from whites, will make Georgia a swing state. In my opinion, it's not a matter of if, it's a matter of when.

The Southern Strategy of picking up racist white people is failing -- maybe more slowly in some places than in others. In 2012 Georgia is no swing state; it is likely the difference between 385 and 400 electoral votes or so. Maybe Georgia white people decide in adequate numbers that President Obama is not the sort of black person who scares them. He didn't take away their guns, he didn't use welfare as patronage, and he didn't set loose packs of criminals.
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old timey villain
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« Reply #14 on: February 29, 2012, 10:13:15 pm »



That is something I always wondered about. There are a bunch of Southern states (Georgia, North Carolina, Texas and Virginia) that are seeing a large wave of predominately Northern liberal whites moving into their states. I know a recent poll was done in Virginia asking people there if they considered themselves to be Southern. The results were fascinating as it showed that opinions were on pace to become 50-50 within the decade. What are the opinions native whites on these white Northern transplants that don't see race as an issue and tend to vote for Democrats?
[/quote]

Well, it's definitely changed many parts of the state, most notable Metro Atlanta. The metro area has become incredibly diverse for a southern city, with large growth from blacks, hispanics, asians, immigrants, religious minorities, as well as white transplants, all living together shoulder to shoulder. This really changes the dynamic of the area. it's no longer just black and white. Some native white southerners here see this is another problem and another enemy, while many see it as a wonderful enrichment of our culture and environment.

That being said, I don't think this will really erase the "southernness" of Georgia, it will just change the definition. I can definitely see people in NoVA not counting themselves as southern, since that area is physically and culturally closer to BosWash these days. And South Florida may as well be a different country. Atlanta is in the heart of the south, so I don't think any amount of growth from outsiders will make it un-southern. It's more an example of the new south- a version of the south that's fast growing, urban, diverse and more progressive.

Most other areas of the state are stagnating and haven't changed much. So if Georgia is moving towards the center, it will be because of metro Atlanta.
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