Post your AZ & MI predictions here

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Michigan:
 Santorum - 40%
 Romney - 39%
 Paul - 11%
 Gingrich - 9%
Others - 1%
 
Ultimately, Michigan is going to be very close. Romney has a huge lead in absentee voters, but they only account for around 17% of voters. Santorum has a huge lead among Democrats, but they only account for around 8% of voters. Santorum WILL win today's vote, but what remains to be seen is if Romney's lead among early voters will be enough of a buffer to keep him in the lead. So far, Santorum has underperformed in polls when he has momentum, and he has momentum here again. He had it last week, then Romney had it, but now Santorum has it. It's possible he's maximized his momentum, but I don't think so. Ultimately, this is my least confident prediction so far, but I'm going with Santorum. If Romney wins, it wouldn't surprise me though... it'll come down to mainly how enthusiastic crossovers are, and how many absentee ballots still have to come in that weren't turned in before.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Michigan
Romney 39%
Santorum 37%
Paul 13%
Gingrich 11%

Arizona
Romney 42%
Santorum 27%
Gingrich 21%
Paul 10%

[Reginald]

Arizona:
Romney 45%
Santorum 26%
Gingrich 17%
Paul 10%

Michigan:
Santorum 39%
Romney 37%
Paul 11%
Gingrich 11%

[NHI]

Updated:

Arizona: No percentages, b/c it doesn't matter. Romney will win this state by a wide margin.

Michigan:
Romney: 39.2%
Santorum: 38.8%
Paul: 11.0%
Gingrich: 10.0%

[Dave from Michigan]

Romney 41%
Santorum 36%
Paul  12%
Gingrich 8%

[Marston]

Santorum 41%
Romney 40%
Paul 11%
Gingrich 8%

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

For anybody who cares, I made a blog post analyzing recent polls in Michigan:

http://inkslwc.wordpress.com/2012/02/28/michigan-primary-prediction-and-statistical-analysis/

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Santorum may pull off a upset in AZ and will win MI. but Romney may win AZ.

[Democratic Hawk]

Arizona

Romney: 42.1%
Santorum: 30.3%
Gingrich: 18.1%
Paul: 9.5%

Michigan

Romney: 38.6%
Santorum: 38.3%
Paul: 13.1%
Gingrich: 10%

[King]

Turnout proves low and Santorum stuns.

Arizona
Santorum 38%
Romney 38%
Gingrich 15%
Paul 9%

Michigan
Santorum 42%
Romney 39%
Paul 11%
Gingrich 8%

[hotpprs]

Well, things could change, but it looks like the polls were fairly accurate, but all the swing votes went Romney's way. The polls and a lot of people here said 38% for Santorum. That's about what it looks he will end up with if things hold.
I wonder if the swing voters were turned off by the robocalls sent to the Dems to vote against Romney?
I was thinking that it was a good thing that Dems were doing that to bust on Romney, until the middle of the day today when I heard about the Santorum robocalls and Santorum defending it. Not that I think it is a bad thing trying to get Dem votes, Romney would not turn away Dem votes either, but it seems the last minute voters in any race are very susceptible to last minute controversies. I didn't think Santorum needed to do that, he had made a little bounce back after the poor Arizona debate. The Dems probably would have voted that way anyway without the robocalls. Still not a bad showing for Santorum. It still makes him viable as a VP if keeps things neck and neck up to the convention. But only if Rubio turns it down. But that's a whole other forum topic.

[Tender Branson]

My turnout prediction for AZ is:

530.000 voters

Projected Michigan turnout:

963.000 voters

Looks on track ...

[hotpprs]

Romney 41%
Santorum 36%
Paul  12%
Gingrich 8%

I don't want to start a fight here, as there is only 84% of the vote in as of this reply, but it looks like you nailed it 9iron. A few people may have been closer with just Romney and Santorum's percentages alone, but it looks like you got it right with Paul and Gingrich included, which is key. Gingrich's continued poor showing is important, which is why you got right more then anyone else overall. The only way for someone other then Romney to win at this point is for Gingrich to drop out. If Santorum drops out, I still think Gingrich doesn't have a chance whatsoever with his poor showings. So it's about a 95% chance Romney gets the nomination at this point unless Gingrich does something bold by dropping out after Super Tuesday. With the winner take all states, and and with NY and California surely going to Romney, Santorum would even have to win a major majority of all the conservative votes in the south to even have a prayer. But I don't think that is going to happen, Gingrich won't drop out, I have no idea why,  so I have to start warming up to the idea that it's make or break with Romney.
 

[Sam Spade]

Mitt will win quite easily in Arizona (no need to go into percentages b/c it's winner-take-all).

As for Michigan, it really is way too close to call.  In theory, Santorum should have the edge b/c of the makeup of the state, and Democrats playing games (which was a big problem for Bush in 2000), but home-state bumps are tough to really quantify, even in polling.  I have to think that if he gets more than 39% (Mitt's total in 2008), he's probably gold, but who knows.

This guesstimate (i.e. Al-style prediction) appears to be about right.

[Eraserhead]

Final Predictions:

Arizona

Romney 44%
Santorum 29%
Gingrich 20%
Paul 7%

Michigan

Romney 41%
Santorum 39%
Paul 11%
Gingrich 9%

I had a good night.

[redcommander]

Final Predictions:

Arizona

Romney 44%
Santorum 29%
Gingrich 20%
Paul 7%

Michigan

Romney 41%
Santorum 39%
Paul 11%
Gingrich 9%

I had a good night.

Congratulations. Your Michigan prediction was nearly spot on too.