Official Michigan and Arizona Results thread

[Tender Branson]

Turnout is now about 1 Mio. (+/- 100.000)

[Lief 🗽]

I really don't understand why the networks haven't called it yet.

[Wisconsin+17]

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We've not seen a vote yet in AZ. Romney won MI by 9 last time. McCain won AZ by 12. Winning MI by 3?

I'm not really sure how this is a bounce for Romney. More like a narrow escape. Especially if he ends up under 40.

[Alcon]

Nate Silver notes that Romney is generally outperforming his 2008 numbers, which were about where he is now (39.9%)

[Tender Branson]

Obama has 88% right now. Will probably end up higher, once the more urban areas are all in.

[Wisconsin+17]

AZ in 3 percent 20 point lead for Romney. Still too early to call.

[cinyc]

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We've not seen a vote yet in AZ. Romney won MI by 9 last time. McCain won AZ by 12. Winning MI by 3?

I'm not really sure how this is a bounce for Romney. More like a narrow escape. Especially if he ends up under 40.

Much of Coconino County is in in the official Arizona SoS tally.  Romney is winning the county, and thus, the state so far.

[retromike22]

FINALLY there are some Arizona votes coming in.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

Obama has 88% right now. Will probably end up higher, once the more urban areas are all in.

An 88% swing.

[yourelection]

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We've not seen a vote yet in AZ. Romney won MI by 9 last time. McCain won AZ by 12. Winning MI by 3?

I'm not really sure how this is a bounce for Romney. More like a narrow escape. Especially if he ends up under 40.

The media coverage is the key. If they promote Romney as a winner, it should give him a boost. The total delegate count is also not unimportant. Still he has an uphill battle and like I said he has not been able to make much out of his past boosts.

Still for Santorum, he will lose his surge coming out of the last three victories and will also lose a lot of the media coverage that he has had. He will have an even harder time after tonight.

[Torie]

CNN just announced that 50% of Democrats voted for Santorum according to their Michigan exit poll. LOL!

For Dems, it was 50% Santorum, 18% Romney, and 10% of the voters. So that translates into a 3.2% margin .1(.50-.18), which means that whatever margin Mittens wins by in MI will be 3.2% less than if Dems had not been allowed to vote in the GOP primary. Which further means that among GOP and independents, who are voting for whom their prefer, as opposed to Dems, who mostly or at least in very substantial numbers are voting for whom they want Obama to oppose, the win by Romney is pretty substantial among voters who plan to vote GOP in the General.

[ag]

Almost 30,000 vote difference w/ 67% reporting. Yeah, this is getting into the call zone.

[Alcon]

Whew, good Oakland County dump for Romney.  About ready to call this.

[Alcon]

CNN just announced that 50% of Democrats voted for Santorum according to their Michigan exit poll. LOL!

For Dems, it was 50% Santorum, 18% Romney, and 10% of the voters. So that translates into a 3.2% margin .1(.50-.18), which is whatever margin Mittens wins by in MI will be 3.2% less than if Dems had not been allowed to vote in the GOP primary. Which means that among GOP and independents, who are voting for whom their prefer, as opposed to Dems, who mostly or at least in very substantial numbers are voting for whom they want Obama to oppose, the win by Romney is pretty substantial among voters who plan to vote GOP in the General.

They've actually downgraded Democrats to 7% of the sample last I checked.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Lots of precincts still out there that haven't reported at all - and Santorum just needs to get back some of what's already come from Detroit.

And there we go - 50 in AZ right at 10pm EST. The networks are pretty good.

Looks like Rick made the right choice. ARG was way off.  

[J. J.]

@ 58.5 reporting Mittens up by 4 points.  

Santorum lost the Catholic vote in both MI and AZ.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Santorum's also winning among Very conservative and conservative.

So if Mittens wants to complain about Reagan democrats crossing over, he needs to take a hard look at the Rockefellers. He's consistantly won among independents and moderates.

[Torie]

CNN just announced that 50% of Democrats voted for Santorum according to their Michigan exit poll. LOL!

For Dems, it was 50% Santorum, 18% Romney, and 10% of the voters. So that translates into a 3.2% margin .1(.50-.18), which is whatever margin Mittens wins by in MI will be 3.2% less than if Dems had not been allowed to vote in the GOP primary. Which means that among GOP and independents, who are voting for whom their prefer, as opposed to Dems, who mostly or at least in very substantial numbers are voting for whom they want Obama to oppose, the win by Romney is pretty substantial among voters who plan to vote GOP in the General.

They've actually downgraded Democrats to 7% of the sample last I checked.

2.2% shave then. Have you ever noticed how the exit poll results change as the raw vote comes in, so that at the end, the exit poll numbers always match the actual result?  I see this all the time. The exit poll numbers after they come in are massaged to "fit."  That is OK, since one is interested in seeing accurate sub-group numbers, but it should be fully disclosed, and never seems to be so disclosed.

[Torie]

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Santorum's also winning among Very conservative and conservative.

So if Mittens wants to complain about Reagan democrats crossing over, he needs to take a hard look at the Rockefellers. He's consistantly won among independents and moderates.

I don't think the Dems who voted in the GOP primary in MI are mostly "Reagan Democrats."

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So, I get one point at least Romney better not finish above 50 in Arizona though...

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Is he conceding?

[J. J.]

At 60.4, Mittens is up 4.4 points.

[Alcon]

NBC calls for Romney

[Wisconsin+17]

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If Mitt wants a closed primary - then the indies and moderates go too.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Santorum that is. He's speaking.