Official Michigan and Arizona Results thread
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  Official Michigan and Arizona Results thread
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Author Topic: Official Michigan and Arizona Results thread  (Read 14658 times)
yourelection
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« Reply #125 on: February 28, 2012, 09:04:14 PM »

CNN making a prediction based on an exit poll is a little weird, but OK why not.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #126 on: February 28, 2012, 09:04:30 PM »


Don't you find that Santorum is severely underperforming in many rural places?

Just got in.  The baseline is to compare Romney 2012 vs. Romney 2008.  Remember that Romney regularly got 30%-35% in a lot of the rural Michigan areas in 2008, so I wouldn't be looking for miracles.

The problem that Santorum will face is that he appears to be underperforming in the Detroit suburbs.

Another point: Santorum's turnout is terrible where he needs it to be good.  Goes to show you how crappy of a candidate he is.
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ag
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« Reply #127 on: February 28, 2012, 09:04:55 PM »

Big dumps from Detroit suburbs: Romney 41%, Santorum 38% (almost 5000 votes difference).
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shua
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« Reply #128 on: February 28, 2012, 09:05:33 PM »

How have all those precints in the Upper P been in for several minutes already?
Oh right, nevermind - only a few counties are Central Time.
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Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #129 on: February 28, 2012, 09:07:33 PM »

These are absentees still, right? Romney +3 probably isn't going to be enough.
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #130 on: February 28, 2012, 09:07:51 PM »

Romney with a 4500 vote lead
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #131 on: February 28, 2012, 09:08:39 PM »

I would like to see more Western Michigan, but I would advise betting on Romney right now.
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yourelection
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« Reply #132 on: February 28, 2012, 09:08:39 PM »

AZ is not insignificant for Romney.
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #133 on: February 28, 2012, 09:09:32 PM »

I thpught Ottowa would be better for Rick
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ag
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« Reply #134 on: February 28, 2012, 09:09:52 PM »

These are absentees still, right? Romney +3 probably isn't going to be enough.

Probably, a lot more than that. It's 24% reporting, Romney w/ 8500 vote lead.
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Franzl
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« Reply #135 on: February 28, 2012, 09:11:05 PM »

CNN making a prediction based on an exit poll is a little weird, but OK why not.

Nothing at all weird about that. Done often enough in safe elections in the US.

And in Germany (and Europe for the most part), the exit polls are considered to be practically the results. Politicians concede defeat and declare victory based off of them.
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Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #136 on: February 28, 2012, 09:11:58 PM »

Not gonna be enough for Romney at this point now that absentees are done. He needed them to be decisive. +3 isn't enough.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #137 on: February 28, 2012, 09:13:29 PM »


Mitt got 35% there in 2008.  Don't see why that would change much.
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #138 on: February 28, 2012, 09:13:41 PM »

Who did CNN call for?
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cinyc
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« Reply #139 on: February 28, 2012, 09:13:50 PM »

Not gonna be enough for Romney at this point now that absentees are done. He needed them to be decisive. +3 isn't enough.

Who says absentees are reporting first?  They don't in many states.  If anything, counties have been trending Romney as the votes come in, suggesting absentees aren't coming in first.
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« Reply #140 on: February 28, 2012, 09:14:01 PM »

They're calling Romney winning Arizona.
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Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #141 on: February 28, 2012, 09:14:18 PM »

Santorum chipping away at the lead. *sigh*

This is gonna be a long night.
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Reds4
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« Reply #142 on: February 28, 2012, 09:14:28 PM »

Anyone have any idea what turnout is like this year compared to 2008 in Michigan so far?
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ag
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« Reply #143 on: February 28, 2012, 09:15:27 PM »

Not gonna be enough for Romney at this point now that absentees are done. He needed them to be decisive. +3 isn't enough.

The problem is, it's not like they first count absentees everywhere. It was in early counts that Santorum's been ahead - recently, Romney lead has been steadily growing, not falling (it's now about 9500 votes).
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #144 on: February 28, 2012, 09:15:59 PM »

Oh. I thought you meant mI lol. Scared me!
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yourelection
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« Reply #145 on: February 28, 2012, 09:16:07 PM »

CNN making a prediction based on an exit poll is a little weird, but OK why not.

Nothing at all weird about that. Done often enough in safe elections in the US.

And in Germany (and Europe for the most part), the exit polls are considered to be practically the results. Politicians concede defeat and declare victory based off of them.

In last few election I remember exit poll getting a bad name. Which tells me CNN is 1) wanting to be first in making a projection and 2) that they are very confident in the exit poll.
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Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #146 on: February 28, 2012, 09:17:20 PM »

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Absentees are over 25 percent - those votes that put Romney over were still absentees. Now we're getting into the actual ballots.

It's still way, way too early to call it for Romney.
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cinyc
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« Reply #147 on: February 28, 2012, 09:17:41 PM »

Romney now leads in 8 CDs to Santorum's 5.  MI-09 isn't in.
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ag
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« Reply #148 on: February 28, 2012, 09:18:19 PM »

Romney's lead is now over 10,000 votes.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #149 on: February 28, 2012, 09:19:00 PM »

Anyone have any idea what turnout is like this year compared to 2008 in Michigan so far?

It'll be around 2008 levels.
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