2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)

[Gass3268]

It looks like all four Wisconsin Republican candidates are living in the same area of the state (southeast quadrant). Any idea who will be favored in the other areas? Also, how much will the other candidates be hurt or benefit from residing in or near Neumann's old Congressional district? I assume Neumann will be strongest there. Will he be able to swamp the others or are they getting the last laugh by biting into his lead?

Here are my guesses based off of the recent polling:

Thompson: Being from Elroy in Juneau County, he will probably do the best in the western part of the state that borders the Mississippi River. This is the area of the state that his brother, Ed Thompson, did the best in when he ran as a Libertarian in the 2002 governor race. Here is the map:



Hovde: He is actually from and currently resides in Madison. Before I moved to DC, all I saw driving around the county was Hovde signs. I could definitely see him doing well with the Republicans in Dane County (yes there are some, lol) and Democrats that cross over to vote in the Republican Primary with the efforts of sabotaging Thompson.

Neumann: I would also assume that he would do the best in his old Congressional district, but primarily in Walworth County, which is his home county and the suburbs of Kenosha and Racine. I could also see him doing well in south Waukesha County as it is really close to his hometown of East Troy.

Fitzgerald: Looking at his poll numbers I would guess that the only county he has a chance of carrying is his home county of Dodge.

The two most important areas are obviously going to be the Milwaukee suburbs in Ozaukee, Washington and Waukesha and the Fox River Valley (Appleton, Green Bay, Menahsa, Neenah and Oshkosh). I have no idea who's going to win theses areas, but whoever does will win the race.     


   

[Gass3268]

I have a feeling the county map for this race is going to be crazy.

[Gass3268]

Hovde 38, Thompson 28, Neumann 24.

Gass: Should Thompsonians be worried at this stage?

I'd be a bit worried because if the results coming in from Milwaukee are representative of the Milwaukee Suburbs, Thompson is going to have to do extremely well in the other parts of the state. Losing the Fox River Valley won't help either.   

[Gass3268]

Marathon County (Wausau) coming in big Hovde.

[Gass3268]

31.9-31.6 Thompson. His Milwaukee County margin is dwindling with every report.

Gass: How important?

I wouldn't say its huge, but it is another area of the state and a decent metro area that Hovde is doing well in. This entire race could hinge on the Milwaukee suburbs.

[Gass3268]

Fitzgerald is leading in Dodge.

One of my predictions is actually holding true! To bad my my others, other then Thompson doing well in the western part of the state, have sucked =p

[Gass3268]

Sheboygan and Manitowoc County coming in for Hovde.

[Gass3268]

Surprised that Neumann is doing better in the Northwest then in is former Southeast congressional district.

[Gass3268]

If the Milwaukee suburbs narrow or flip, then I think Thompson will end up winning.

[Gass3268]

One heck of a dog fight.  I see that all of Brown County (Green Bay) is in now.  Hovde bested Thompson by 6,500 there.  Perhaps that is his home county.  I don't think the race will be called anytime soon.

Hovde is actually from Madison

[Gass3268]

Hovde is actually from Madison

...and losing Dane County 33%-48%.

Yup, one of my wrong predictions =(

[Gass3268]

One remaining county that has yet to report with a lot of Republicans in it is the Twin City metro county of  St. Croix. That should benefit Thompson.  

[Gass3268]

I am surprised with the differences between Waukesha County and Washington/Ozaukee counties. Usually they vote in unison.   

[Gass3268]

Neumann = Perennial Loser 

[Gass3268]

I still think it will be a toss up in November, but the results tonight definitely put it as a slight R toss up. 

[Gass3268]

I'll be interested to see the exit polls in November on what % of voters submit a Obama/Thompson ballot. There will a significant proportion and my guess is that Obama would have to get around his polling average of 5-6% for Baldwin to be close.  

[Gass3268]

So to those that say money buys elections say about this one? Hovde raised more then double what Thompson did and still loses. Thompson goes into places he hasn't been in 14 years and still remembers people's names trumps the $$$ any day. Besides Thompson having an actual track record of getting things done.

True, that helped, but if Hovde or Neumann had a one on one fight, Thompson would have won. That is the difference between Wisconsin and the many other states were the insurgent won.  

[Gass3268]

I saw that LPAC will be donating to Tammy, obviously. In there statement announcing it, they stated that the Republicans were attacking her, and one of the reasons they gave as to why was because she was a lesbian.

Has anyone in the WI GOP been playing that card?

I've only seen one commercial up so far and it didn't address the issue. It also wasn't a very good ad because if you turned it off half way though you would think it was a Pro-Baldwin ad. I think this is in issue that Republicans will and should avoid as it would probably be a turn off to Independent voters in the state.

[Gass3268]

Yep. This is 51.

Yeah, no.

Uh, yeah. You have this, MT, ND, MO, and NE make 5 Republican pickups as opposed to 1 sorta-D in ME. Then you have FL/VA/MA, which are all 50-50. Republicans are more likely to take the Senate than not, 50.5-49.5. They need to win at least 1 of the troika of 50-50s -- statistically speaking the chance of any party winning 3 given 50-50 races is 12.5%. That means there's an 87.5% chance the Republicans take at least 1 of those 3 races, and, unless you quibble on something else, Republicans are very likely to take the Senate.

As of now the only automatic Republican gain is in NE and probably MO while the same, probably, for the Democrats in ME. The rest (FL, IN, MT, ND, NV, VA, VI & WI) should be competitive.