2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)

[Vosem]

Yep. This is 51.

Yeah, no.

Uh, yeah. You have this, MT, ND, MO, and NE make 5 Republican pickups as opposed to 1 sorta-D in ME. Then you have FL/VA/MA, which are all 50-50. Republicans are more likely to take the Senate than not, 50.5-49.5. They need to win at least 1 of the troika of 50-50s -- statistically speaking the chance of any party winning 3 given 50-50 races is 12.5%. That means there's an 87.5% chance the Republicans take at least 1 of those 3 races, and, unless you quibble on something else, Republicans are very likely to take the Senate.

[Vosem]

Uh, yeah. You have this, MT, ND, MO, and NE make 5 Republican pickups as opposed to 1 sorta-D in ME. Then you have FL/VA/MA, which are all 50-50. Republicans are more likely to take the Senate than not, 50.5-49.5. They need to win at least 1 of the troika of 50-50s -- statistically speaking the chance of any party winning 3 given 50-50 races is 12.5%. That means there's an 87.5% chance the Republicans take at least 1 of those 3 races, and, unless you quibble on something else, Republicans are very likely to take the Senate.

MT is still a pure tossup and so is ND thanks to your useless candidate Rick Berg. Also LOL at the idea that FL is 50/50.

I agree with you that Mack is favored, but I though I'd give Nelson the benefit of the doubt. Polling in MT has pretty consistently shown Rehberg leading Tester and although Berg is indeed useless RCP's page on ND shows the same thing, though apparently Heitkamp's released lots of favorable internals.