2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)

[Zioneer]

Auston Johnson is narrowly losing reelection for Auditor with half the precincts in. My family voted for him. He's been in office for 17 years.

Yeah, and he's losing to someone who isn't even certified to be an account. John Dougall (who will most certainly win in November) is a politican through and through who will needlessly politicize the job of Utah state Auditor.

Other Utah primaries of note; Donna McAleer trashed Ryan Combe in the Democratic primary for Utah's 1st district, and will go on to face Rob Bishop (and be thrashed herself, because Rob Bishop is the ultimate Utah politician). For the Republican Attorney General primary, John Swallow smashed Sean Reyes. Swallow was (along with his boss Mark Shurtleff) not only responsible for ultra-politicizing the Attorney General's office, but also key in suing the Feds over Obamacare and state control of public lands.

In the Salt Lake County GOP Mayoral Primary (important because Salt Lake County has about half of Utah's residents), it looks like Mark Crockett beat West Valley Mayor Mike Winder by 200 votes. There might be a recount, but if there isn't, Crockett will face Ben McAdams in November. This is interesting, because Crockett has never been a mayor, and was voted out of his Salt Lake County Council seat after one term. From what I understand, Crockett is a Tea Party type, very conservative and a bit of an ideological zealot who doesn't play nice with others. Winder was an establishment type Republican who had a scandal recently where he wrote pro-Winder articles in the Deseret News under a false name (Richard Burwash). Fun fact: Ben McAdams jokingly claimed that Richard Burwash endorsed him. Either way, Salt Lake County tends to go Democratic (unlike the rest of Utah), so I predict a McAdams win in the general election.

As for Hatch... he's too far-right for my tastes, so you can imagine how I felt about Liljenquist. Hatch will face Scott Howell in the face, and judging by Scott Howell's 30-point defeat to Hatch twelve years ago, you can guess how this will end.

[Zioneer]

So it turns out that the Salt Lake County Mayoral primary isn't over yet; there's going to be a recount, the results of which will be released on July 12th. It's still likely that Crockett will win, but this effectively paralyzes both candidates from campaigning effectively against McAdams until they know who won. I hate to be so partisan, but as I personally know Ben McAdams and consider him my friend, anything that makes his election easier (thankfully, the County Mayor seat is actually fairly easily winnable for Democrats) makes me happy.

[Zioneer]

Figured as much.

Pioneer, who do you think has a better chance in the GE against McAdams?

I think it'll be a close race - we'll have to see.

I honestly don't know; Winder had his Burwash problem, which is certainly easier to caricature and mock, but Crockett is reportedly hot-headed (which could lead to some gaffes), and doesn't play well with others (which could lead to a few republicans breaking ranks and going for McAdams). Crockett also doesn't have mayoral experience, which could hurt his argument. Both McAdams and Crockett do have experience working with Peter Corroon (Crockett as a County Councilman, and McAdams as a legal counsel/legislative worker), though.

Overall, I think that if Crockett wins, his political narrative will be stronger; he's a successful businessman who can characterize McAdams as an out-of-touch, way-too-liberal Salt Lake City Democrat who wants to grow government. McAdams can't characterize Crockett the way he could Winder; if Winder wins, McAdams can portray Winder as a sleazy lying "good old boys"-style Mayor who tries to make West Valley look better than it's actually doing.

However, McAdams can still give a pretty good campaign narrative if Crockett wins; he can say that a Democratic County Mayor has worked well for Salt Lake County these past 8 years, and that he'd continue Corroon's work while expanding on it through new policies (I predict that Salt Lake County will really like the anti-credit-card legislation he pushed while a state senator). He can also characterize Crockett as someone with very little experience in policy, as well as not being prepared for the job.

Either way, I agree with you; it'll be close, and probably closer than the Corroon campaigns (on account of McAdams being more liberal than Corroon); still, I think McAdams will win in the end.

[Zioneer]

Oh, and if anyone cares; turns out Mark Crockett was finally determined to have won the Salt Lake County GOP Mayoral primary. Now he and Ben McAdams will be duking it out to control a county that has half the population of Utah within it. This race is the only Utah race that consistently gives an equal chance to Democrats. It'll be fun.

[Zioneer]

Oh, and if anyone cares; turns out Mark Crockett was finally determined to have won the Salt Lake County GOP Mayoral primary. Now he and Ben McAdams will be duking it out to control a county that has half the population of Utah within it. This race is the only Utah race that consistently gives an equal chance to Democrats. It'll be fun.

I care!

Also, I've been seeing a lot of Cooke signs around. He may break 40%!

I know, right? I'll honestly be excited if Cooke gets within 10% of matching Herbert, since that means the narrative on Utah Democrats is weakening! If he gets within 5% of winning... Then we'll know that a new era in Utah politics is happening. And if by some fluke Cooke squeaks through a win, I will be happy beyond belief.

[Zioneer]

The part of me who wants the most electable said Brunner. Every other ounce of me wanted Steelman. So, of course, Akin wins.

To be honest, I feel for you; every time I think about Jim Matheson, the same thing comes to mind.