Washington GOP caucus **results thread**

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

I don't see Santorum making a comeback.  It'd even be a really far longshot for Paul.  I'm guessing the networks will be calling it soon.

[Alcon]

I don't see Santorum making a comeback.  It'd even be a really far longshot for Paul.  I'm guessing the networks will be calling it soon.

They should call it now.  This is a small bloodbath.

[Wisconsin+17]

If King and Pierce are in and Santorum is tied with Paul, he should have no problem getting there.

Kitsap was 2-1 Santorum over Paul. All the Santorum strong counties are all that's left out there, with King in.

[Torie]

Does each precinct select delegates to the convention? Does each precinct have one delegate, or how are they selected? Is it first by the post in each precinct, or proportional, or what?  I read Green Papers, and these are the questions I had.

At the convention, are delegates to the convention chosen proportionately?

I think these are delegates to a state convention that then chooses delegates to the RNC.

Yes, but I am more interested in the interim steps as outlined above.

The results today are from the non-binding straw poll, just like in Iowa and Nevada. There is a delegate selection process (which starts in the precincts and ends on the state level in a proportional to population fashion) that also started today. Paul could get some "ninja delegates" through this process like people say he may in other states as well.

Thanks, but how does each precinct elect folks to go to the state convention?  What is the exact process?  Pity no WA Atlasians are Pubs, who would be actually doing it.

[Wisconsin+17]

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True, surprised they haven't already.  Turnout is really high. All the Romney areas are in but Santorum's areas are all outstanding. This is frontloaded Romney at his best.

Oh, Paul's not going to finish second - all his areas are in and Santorum is beating him in King + Pearce.  

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

It's over.

[Alcon]

I'm not seeing why the remaining counties are clearly Santorum > Paul.  All of them seem fairly ambiguous besides likely Paul counties (Spokane, Stevens.)  While Kitsap was 2-to-1 Santorum over Paul, Paul beat Santorum in the more working-class Pierce County.  Weird distribution of votes all-around...

[J. J.]

I don't see Santorum making a comeback.  It'd even be a really far longshot for Paul.  I'm guessing the networks will be calling it soon.

They should call it now.  This is a small bloodbath.

Fortunately, for Santorum, it won't make too much of a difference for Super Tuesday.

It is a very good night for Mittens.

Congratulations Politico!

[Alcon]

"The King County districts that are in: 1st, 31st, 47th and 48th"

That means that the reports are a mix of suburbs and exurbs, with no Seattle.

[Torie]

Kudos to the GOP WA state chairman.  I'm watching him reporting the next slug of votes. He is precise and articulate and informative. We have finally found a competent GOP party official during this primary season. It's just fabulous.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

I'm not from WA, but why on earth is the state so polarized?

It's bisected north-to-south by a mountain range. West of the Cascades things are (simplifying a bit) liberal West Coast-y and a lot like Northern California and coastal Oregon, politically; to the east things are (again, simplifying a bit) more like Idaho.

[Wisconsin+17]

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The only areas that have gone solidly Paul are sparsely populated areas. Spokane is a large rural city. Even in Seattle and the environs - also heavy Paul areas. he's not getting any margin vs Santorum. He's up, by what 1 vote in King? He's not going to win vs Santorum unless he beats Santorum in heavily populated areas.  

All the areas outstanding voted Bush in Bush vs Gore, and are fairly heavily populated areas, matching up with Kitsap.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Look at the county by county results. Some of Romney's highest support is on the other side of the mountains, and some of Santorum's highest support is in bordering counties. If you look at 2008 results, it's positively schizophrenic.

Nowhere have we seen 3 candidates getting 50+ percent in a county and finishing last in another different county.

If the mountain effect were at work, we'd expect to see what we saw in Michigan - heavily Romney on the coast, heavy Santorum in the interior.

[Politico]

Congratulations Politico Winfield!

Fixed.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

[Alcon]

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The only areas that have gone solidly Paul are sparsely populated areas. Spokane is a large rural city. Even in Seattle and the environs - also heavy Paul areas. he's not getting any margin vs Santorum. He's up, by what 1 vote in King? He's not going to win vs Santorum unless he beats Santorum in heavily populated areas.  

All the areas outstanding voted Bush in Bush vs Gore, and are fairly heavily populated areas, matching up with Kitsap.

The Paul people's organization in Spokane is fantastic, and early anecdotal reports from the 3rd LD saw him beating the pants out of Romney there; plus I think he was leading a report out of Spokane Valley.  Paul is beating Santorum in all of the urbanized counties but Kitsap: King, Clark, Pierce, Snohomish, Thurston.

The counties remaining:

Snohomish - A bit like Pierce and Kitsap, although that obviously doesn't help us much.

Whatcom - Has some Dutch calvinists, but also has a university town.

Skagit - Early report had Santorum leading Paul 202-170.

Chelan - Hard to say, but enough Western Washington transplants that I doubt it will be solid Santorum.

Douglas - Probably good for Santorum, but low-population enough to get a weird result.

Grant - Probably Santorum.

Stevens - Almost certainly Paul.

Spokane - I think Paul, you think Santorum, we'll see.

Overall, hardly looks like a slam-dunk for Santorum, and King County has plenty left to go (including all of Seattle.)

[J. J.]

Romney declared by CNN.  Double digits with Paul in second.

[Alcon]

CNN on Snohomish County: Strong Romney win, good Paul showing

Also, forgot to mention that Island County is out too.  Seems like another place where a Santorum run-away seems unlikely (Kitsap results notwithstanding)

[J. J.]

Congratulations Politico Winfield!

Fixed.

Congratulation Politico and Winfield.  

[Wiz in Wis]

I'm actually beginning to think that Obama is better off running against Romney... All Romney can accomplish is marginally beating flawed, unlikeable candidates by outspending them 5-1. Santorum, and even Gingrich at least had some appeal to the GOP base... Romney is pretty much vanilla yogurt.

[Torie]

CNN on Snohomish County: Strong Romney win, good Paul showing

Didn't Paul beat Rick by 100-200 votes or something in Snohmish?  In fact, unless I misheard, Paul won the county, but I suspect I may have.

[Wisconsin+17]

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I called it at 8 percent.

So far I've not missed a state.

[Alcon]

CNN on Snohomish County: Strong Romney win, good Paul showing

Didn't Paul beat Rick by 100-200 votes or something in Snohmish?  In fact, unless I misheard, Paul won the county, but I suspect I may have.

I'm not watching CNN; I got that from Twitter.  I haven't seen any official results come up yet.

[Alcon]

Jon Ralston ‏ @RalstonFlash  Reply  Retweet  Favorite · Open
Ron Paul tonight will quadruple the number of states he has won. (4 times 0 = 0) #WAcaucus

[Torie]

CNN on Snohomish County: Strong Romney win, good Paul showing

Didn't Paul beat Rick by 100-200 votes or something in Snohmish?  In fact, unless I misheard, Paul won the county, but I suspect I may have.

I'm not watching CNN; I got that from Twitter.  I haven't seen any official results come up yet.

Yes, I was listening to the GOP chairman read the numbers orally, but didn't focus enough on the Mittens number. I thought it was just slightly below Paul's by a few votes. Something like 1060 Paul, 1040 Mitt, 920 Rick. I know Rick was in the 900's and Paul between 1000-1100.